ES EMINI AM BRIEFING #786

Week Ahead: News Calendar & Key Events

This is a CPI week — and the calendar is light early before it gets heavy mid-week. Nothing on the docket Monday or Tuesday, but Tuesday carries its own weight as the day before a major catalyst. Wednesday’s CPI print is the highlight of the week, followed by sentiment and expectations data Friday.

Last Week’s Scorecard

Last week delivered strong results across all three products. The ES futures daily trade setups in the Battle Plan accumulated approximately 147 points for the week. Friday’s Battle Plan 3 produced a 200-point move — but those points are not counted. Here’s why that matters.

• Battle Plan (Weekly): Approximately 147 points across the week’s setups.
• Battle Plan 3 (Friday): 200-point move — not counted because it occurred on the Non-Farm Payroll candle. NFP candles are unpredictable, outsized, and not representative of repeatable trade skill. Counting them would inflate the scorecard dishonestly.
• Zoom Room: Crushed it last week. Community performance was strong across live sessions.
• Advanced Scalping System (Full Members): Minimum of 80 points, with no trades taken Friday due to NFP. The system is designed to sit out high-risk, low-probability environments.

Market Structure: Trend Line, Ranges, and the 7500 Zone

Zooming out on the chart, there was a beautiful trend line move up that has since been broken. The key question now: will price back test that broken trend line, and what happens when it does? That’s the watch item for ES futures key levels today. Meanwhile, price lost a key range, bounced off the bottom, then bounced off the top — and appears to be back testing and pushing above that range now.

• Broken Trend Line: A significant uptrend line was broken. Back tests of broken trend lines are common — the level flips from support to resistance. Watch for price reaction if and when it tags back.
• Range Behavior: Price lost a key range, found support at the bottom, then tagged the top. Currently pushing above — a potential breakout or back test scenario.
• Friday’s POC (Point of Control): The highest volume price node from Friday sits near the 7520–7500 zone. Some calculations place it slightly lower, others slightly higher — be mindful of the zone, not a single print.
• Trend Line + POC Confluence: The broken trend line converges with the 7520–7500 POC zone. When two major reference points align, that area carries extra weight as a potential resting spot for price.

Battle Plan 2 Trade Review: Right Trade, Right Location

Last night’s Battle Plan 2 presented two high-probability long entry zones. The environment was not easy — 30-point candles came out of nowhere, and there were multiple 15-point candles throughout. But the core question isn’t whether the trade was easy. It’s whether the setup was correct.

• Two Possible Entries: Both were identified in advance as high-probability long locations — not reactive, not chased. Pre-planned.
• Longs Only: The bias was clearly long. The Battle Plan framed the direction and the traders who followed it were positioned correctly.
• Volatile Candles: 30-point candles in the overnight session are not the ideal trading environment. They test discipline — the tendency is to chase, overtrade, or abandon the plan. The right response is to size down or wait for the candle to complete.
• The Standard: Were we looking for the right trade in the right trade location? Absolutely. That is the entire purpose of the ES futures daily trade setups in the Battle Plan.

Bull-Bear Scorecard: Monday Morning Snapshot

At this moment — this snapshot in time — the bull-bear scorecard is not close. Here’s the full breakdown heading into the Monday session.

Trading on Your Own Terms: Why George Stepped Aside Sunday Night

George was long at 59 Sunday night. A wick came and stopped him out. He then made a deliberate decision: with bombs dropping in Lebanon from Israel, and only Sunday night hours on the clock, the risk-reward of staying in the trade wasn’t there. He expected a short covering move to the top — but it wasn’t his trading environment on his trading terms. So he stood down.

• Geopolitical Risk: Unexpected events (military conflict, breaking news) can cause outsized moves with no technical basis. That’s a fundamentally different kind of risk.
• “My Trading Terms”: Every trader should have a clear definition of when they are and aren’t willing to be in the market. Sunday night during breaking geopolitical news is a legitimate reason to sit out.
• Missed Opportunity vs. Managed Risk: George missed the short covering move he anticipated. That’s the cost of trading on your terms. The alternative — staying in and being wrong — carries a cost too. Know which cost you’re choosing.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

What is a Bull-Bear Scorecard and how do I use it?

A: The Bull-Bear Scorecard is a structured checklist used to determine directional bias before the trading session. It evaluates key market conditions — trend lines, overnight inventory, VWAP direction, session stacking, halfback levels, and whether price is above or below the Bull-Bear Line. The goal isn’t to predict the future — it’s to identify which side of the market has the highest-probability setups at that moment. When the scorecard heavily favors bulls, traders focus on long entries and avoid shorting into strength.

What is the Bull-Bear Line?

A: The Bull-Bear Line is a key price level that separates bullish and bearish bias on the chart. When price is trading above it, the bias favors bulls. When price is below it, the bias favors bears. It’s not a trade entry in itself — it’s a filter that helps you stay on the right side of the market and avoid counter-trend setups in unfavorable conditions.

What is Session Stacking and why does it matter?

A: Session Stacking occurs when the Asia session, London session, and Regular Trading Hours (RTH) all trend in the same direction. When all three sessions stack in one direction, momentum is strong and sustained — the market is telling a consistent story across time zones. In Monday’s briefing, session stacking still favored bulls even after one down day, because overnight had already retraced half of that loss.

What is a short covering rally and why is it a high-probability trade?

A: A short covering rally happens when traders who are holding short positions (betting the market goes down) are forced to buy back their contracts to exit those positions — either because the market moves against them or because they hit a stop loss. This wave of forced buying can drive price sharply higher in a short period of time. It’s considered a high-probability trade setup when the bull-bear scorecard already favors the upside, because the buying pressure is mechanical and often predictable in its direction and speed.

What is the Point of Control (POC) and how is it used as a target?

A: The Point of Control is the price level where the most volume traded during a given session — in this case, Friday’s regular trading session. It acts as a magnet for price because it represents where the most two-sided agreement happened. Traders use it as a target when price is moving toward it, or as a reference point for where price may pause or reverse. In Monday’s briefing, Friday’s POC in the 7520–7500 zone converges with a broken trend line, making it a particularly significant level to watch.

Why didn’t last Friday’s 200-point Battle Plan 3 move count toward the weekly scorecard?

A: The 200-point move on Friday’s Battle Plan 3 was generated on the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) candle — a monthly economic release that produces extreme, often unpredictable price movement in seconds. Counting those points would misrepresent what repeatable trading skill actually produced. NFP candles are high-risk, lottery-style moves. Honest scorecards separate skill-based results from event-driven outliers.

What does it mean to trade “on your own terms” and why does it matter?

A: Trading on your own terms means defining in advance the conditions under which you are willing to be in the market — and having the discipline to sit out when those conditions aren’t met. In Monday’s briefing, George anticipated a short covering move Sunday night but chose not to trade because geopolitical uncertainty (conflict in Lebanon) introduced a type of risk he wasn’t willing to accept. Missing the move he expected was the cost of that decision. Trading on your terms is a core component of long-term futures trading psychology and capital preservation.

What resources does MicrosTrader.com offer for beginners to ES/MES futures trading?

A: MicrosTrader.com offers a free Foundations Course for traders new to ES/MES micro futures — start there to build your base. There’s also a free Trader Test to assess where you stand, a seven-day free trial to the Battle Plan (which includes the Strong Levels and Battle Plan indicators), and a free Tuesday Zoom simulcast on YouTube where you can trade live alongside the community. Full members get access to the advanced scalping system, the full Zoom room, and all five tiers of the daily Battle Plan.

What is the VWAP and what does an upward slanting VWAP signal?

A: VWAP stands for Volume Weighted Average Price — it’s the average price at which a security has traded throughout the session, weighted by volume. An upward slanting VWAP means the average price is rising as the session progresses, which is a bullish signal. When price is also trading above VWAP, it means buyers are in control and the market is trending higher. In Monday’s briefing, an upward slanting VWAP across the four major indices was one of several factors contributing to the bullish bias scorecard.