AM BRIEFING

ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS

TIP OF THE DAY: NO KNIFE CATCHING

Straight from last night’s Battle Plan. When the market is vomiting down, you STAND ASIDE. You do not try to pick the bottom of a flush. You let price stabilize at a planned level first… and in this group that planned level is our Battle Plan locations and our Strong Levels, a spot that can actually hold.

You do not have to be the first one long on a holiday. And if you insist on being early, you have to be perfect with ruthlessness on your risk. That is the whole game. That is risk management. No knife catching, ever.

NEVER LET A TREND DAY HURT YOU

The second theme of the week. You do not have to be the first one long OR the first one short. Trend days crush the counter-trader… the one who keeps calling the top, calling the bottom, fighting the move. That is how a green week turns red on a single stubborn position.

This is why the mapping matters. When the Battle Plan says we only have shorts up in a zone and no longs, you respect it. This week we asked out loud, are we doing longs here? No. Really. And that was the right play. Shorts won this week, two beautiful ones, and we were not even hunting shorts… we were simply in the right place with the right plan.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW: STRONG LEVELS HELD

Strong Levels are the most important levels for the week, and the whole review comes down to one question… how did they respond at the key inflection points? Beautiful. Every time. Here is how the week actually traded.

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• Last Wednesday’s Battle Plan long: if you held overnight and over the weekend, ideal profit landed exactly where the expected range lived. That is a clean place to take profitTake ProfitYour target—where you take money off the table. Having a plan for profits is just as important as stops. Don't get greedy. Full entry →.
• The Battle Plan short: take partials before the next Strong Level. When you have a Strong Level and a beautiful balance area, that is the recommended spot to bank partials.
• Runners: we held a lot of runners just in case. The lotto runner did not work every time… one came back and got you out, and even a third contract in a negative spot would have exited. They do not all run 100 points.
• Same short, kept twice: unusual this week, we kept the exact same short mapping. The read was that a return to the Strong Level would vomit right through it, and that is one reason the short stayed on.
• The 100-pointer: if you played perfect chess and held the lotto runner, you had a 100 point quarter. It was beautiful.

A green trade that does not hit target is still a green trade. We looked for a long that did not reach target but still gave a nice entry… they do not all run, and that is fine.

WHERE THE POINTS LIVED: OVERNIGHT AND LONDON

End of week, so we pulled the analytics panel. Total for the week… 323 points across three ways we make money, the Core Strategy, the Battle Plan, and the Zoom. The trailing four weeks now average about 300 points a week.

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The honest read on this week… most of the trades needed you in them during the overnight session. Trades activated one in Asia (that was the 100 pointer), some in RTH, and London was the big winner. That is the beauty of ES futures… it trades 23 hours, so you have multiple windows and multiple ways to earn the points you need.

MANAGING RUNNERS: DELEVERAGE ES TO MES

Yesterday’s mapping was gorgeous. There was the speculator special short we managed, a beautiful Core Strategy long, and a ghost entry we did not map the Battle Plan to… no promise of an entry there, but the follow through was really nice for anyone who watched it.

The runner lesson is the one to keep. If you held a single lotto runner on ES contracts, here is how to manage it… deleverage. Drop from ES to MES so the size is smaller, keep the stop at your initial entry so it has to hold again, and let it work. Managed that way, you are up 75 points on that trade now. Same idea we used all week… take your profits, keep a small runner, and never let the runner put the week at risk.

WHERE WE STAND NOW… AND NEXT WEEK

Zoom out. We are laddering back up from Battle Plan 3, and the trade is already long or flat. When we open the RTH session we look for Core Strategy trades only… there are NO Battle Plan trades mapped up here. None.

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I am not interested in shorting. To me the shorts already had their move. That does not mean we cannot go down… it just means the market has to give me a clear signature before I hunt a short up here. And on the higher time frame, watch the context… the Dow is back inside last week’s low, and the Nasdaq has printed three days in a row of lower lows and lower highs. RTH shows evidence of laddering down. So I am not engaging longs here either.

Next week brings JOLTS, PCE, GDP, and non-farm payroll. Volatility inbound. Respect it.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

What does no knife catching mean in futures trading?

A: No knife catching means you do not try to buy the bottom of a sharp downward flush. When the market is dropping hard, you stand aside and wait for price to stabilize at a planned level, like a Strong Level or a Battle Plan location that can actually hold, before you look for a long. Catching the falling knife is how counter-traders get run over.

Why do trend days crush counter-traders?

A: A trend day moves in one direction with clean structure and little pullback. A counter-trader keeps trying to call the top or bottom and fights the move, so each new entry against the trend adds to the loss. The fix is to trade with the mapped direction and refuse to be the first one long or short into strength.

What is a Strong Level in the MicrosTrader Battle Plan?

A: Strong Levels are the highest conviction levels for the week, the ones that matter most at key inflection points. They are the planned spots where price is most likely to hold or reject, so they double as the safe places to look for entries and the logical places to take partials.

When should I take partial profits on an ES futures trade?

A: A reliable rule is to take partials before the next Strong Level, especially when you also have a beautiful balance area in front of you. You bank real profit at the spot most likely to cause a stall or reversal, then let a smaller runner work toward the next target.

How do I manage a lotto runner without giving back profit?

A: Take your core profits first, then keep only a small runner. If that runner is on full ES contracts, deleverage by dropping to MES micros so the size is smaller, and move or keep your stop at your initial entry so the position has to hold again. That protects the week while still leaving upside if it runs.

What is the difference between ES and MES contracts?

A: ES is the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract and MES is the Micro E-mini, one tenth the size of the ES. Traders deleverage by switching a runner from ES to MES to keep the same idea on with far less dollar risk, which is a core part of position sizingPosition SizingHow many contracts you trade based on your account size and risk tolerance. Proper sizing keeps you alive. Risk too much? Full entry → for beginners.

Why does MicrosTrader trade the overnight and London sessions?

A: ES futures trade nearly 23 hours a day, so the best moves do not always happen in RTH. This week most of the trades activated overnight, with one in Asia and London as the big winner. Having Asia, London, and RTH windows gives you multiple chances to earn your points instead of forcing trades in one session.

What is the Three-Contract System?

A: It is MicrosTrader’s core position sizing framework. You use multiple contracts so you can bank partials at planned levels, hold a middle piece toward the next target, and keep a final runner for a larger move, all while managing risk. It is what lets you take profits and still keep a lotto runner alive.

When is it right to not trade at all?

A: When the market has no mapped Battle Plan trades in the current zone and no clear signature for a move, sitting flat is the correct play. Not wanting to be long does not mean you should be short. Sometimes the trade is no trade at all, and that patience protects both your capital and your mindset.

What economic events should ES traders watch next week?

A: The calendar carries JOLTS, PCE, GDP, and non-farm payroll, which brings volatility inbound. Around high impact data you lean harder on planned levels, avoid knife catching into news driven flushes, and size down when uncertainty is high.