AM BRIEFING

ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS

THE TIP OF THE DAY: GREEN OVER GREED, THEN LET IT RIDE

Straight to the Battle Plan and the tip written last night. Bank profit early so the day is guaranteed green. Then let the rest rise. A runner flies better when the day underneath it is already safe. You are already green. You are in a winning trade. Stay in that trade. The Battle Plan note ended with a line we get to prove out this morning… this would have really paid well.

That is Green Over Greed in one move. You take the piece that locks the day, and only then do you give the runner room to do what runners do. Fear does not manage the position once the floor is set. The mapped board does.

PERFECT CHESS: THE WEEK ON THE BOARD

Perfect chess has been the topic lately, and the week backs it up. Since last Wednesday’s Battle Plan 6, the sequence played out clean… an entry near Battle Plan 1, an add-on in the overnight, and then a single lotto runner held for those in an account built to do it. That runner ran up 200 to 250 points, somewhere in there.

• Last Wednesday: for many traders this was a first 200-pointer. Stop set to capture 200 points, or trail for more if you wanted to reach for 250.
• Tuesday night: Battle Plan 1 was mapped for a short and delivered 25 points a contract.
• Yesterday, Battle Plan 1: a beautiful short. Congratulations to Casey and everyone else who was short off that level.
• The continuation: the board gave a 100-pointer, then a 130-pointer.

Getting up early the last two mornings has really paid. When the levels are mapped the night before, you are handed the chance to be in a nice trade early instead of chasing it late.

MANAGING THE LOTTO RUNNER

A lotto runner is a speculative, low-probability trade you hold for an outsized extended move. It only works if you have already banked the day, and it only works with a management plan set in advance. We walked through more than one way to run it.

▶ Watch this moment in the AM Briefing

• Aggressive, stay in the winning trade: keep your stop above the RTH high. You are declaring you want to stay in this move and you will give it that room.
• Behind the levels: the typical advice for staying short is to keep your stop behind one or two Strong Levels. That is how you capture part of the amazing move without getting shaken out early.
• Split the stops: this morning I moved one stop to capture 50% of the green and kept the other one back for more. If the market comes and gets me, fine. Not every trade is a 100-pointer.

The point is that the management is chosen before the heat of the move, sized to how aggressive you want to be and to the account you are trading.

WE ALSO MAP SHORTS

We do map shorts, and when they hit they hit. This one was rare… the Battle Plan notes flagged a possible short for the aggressive on Day 2 of the trade, a special occasion. Staying in gave a 50 to 100 pointer, at least 75 points, before we rotated into the next long.

As we entered the Battle Plan 2 long, I said there was nothing wrong with just exiting the short right there. Why? Because that was the next place we were already looking for a long. The long came in near the bottom of our mapping, gave the entry, and gave a follow-on entry after that. Did every leg follow through? No. One tree was only a 20-pointer against a larger expected range. I cannot guarantee every move delivers the full 50, and that is exactly why you bank the day first.

THIS MORNING: BATTLE PLAN 3 LONG UNDER A DECLINING VWAP

We made it down to Battle Plan 3 last night, and in the notes I wrote I am much more interested in this tree than Battle Plan 2. This was the train I wanted to take, and I am. Two entries filled me into two contracts, and the entry off that lower level was beautiful.

Here is the part that matters most. With a downward-sloping VWAP, the trader still short from the Battle Plan is all smiles, sitting under a declining VWAP in an amazing trade. And the trader long from Battle Plan 3 can be right at the same time. Some of us are long, some of us are short, and both are in the proper trade at the proper trade location. That is what perfect chess means. You are not fighting the tape, you are positioned on the level the board handed you.

ON THE CALENDAR

Two drivers today, then a heavier slate tomorrow. Watch how price reacts around each release rather than predicting it.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

What does Green Over GreedGreen Over GreedA psychological rule reminding you to lock in a profitable ("green") day and walk away rather than risking those profits by overtrading. Full entry → mean in practice?

A: It means you bank enough profit early to guarantee the day closes green before you reach for a bigger move. Once the floor is set, you let the rest of the position ride. Discipline books the sure thing first and gives greed no vote.

What is a lotto runner in ES futures trading?

A: A lotto runner is a speculative, low-probability contract you hold for an outsized extended move, sometimes worth 100 points or more. You only hold one when the rest of the day is already banked and green, and you only hold it in an account sized to carry it.

Where should I put my stop when holding a runner short?

A: For the aggressive trader who wants to stay in the winning trade, keep the stop above the RTH high. The typical alternative is to keep it behind one or two Strong Levels. Both give the move room to run instead of shaking you out early.

How can a long trader and a short trader both be right on the same day?

A: Because each is positioned at a proper trade location handed to them by the mapped Battle Plan. A trader long from Battle Plan 3 and a trader still short under a declining VWAP can both be in a winning trade at once. Direction matters less than being on the right level.

Why does a declining VWAP matter when I am short?

A: VWAP is the Volume Weighted Average PriceVolume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)The average price weighted by volume. Institutions use this to measure their execution quality. Above VWAP = bullish. Below VWAP = bearish. Full entry →, a running fair-value line for the session. When it slopes down and price stays beneath it, sellers are in control, so a short position is aligned with the dominant flow. That is why a short under a declining VWAP is described as all smiles.

What is the Battle Plan and how do the numbered levels work?

A: The Battle Plan is the nightly ES trade plan that maps tiered entry levels, labeled Battle Plan 1 up through higher numbers, with the count varying by day. Each level is a pre-planned trade location. This week ran from Battle Plan 6 down through Battle Plan 3, with notes on which tree to favor.

Why is it worth getting up early to trade the AM Briefing?

A: Because when levels are mapped the night before, you are often handed a nice trade early rather than chasing price later in the session. You do not have to wake up early to profit, but the last two mornings show how much the early opportunity can pay.

Should I take a short target off right at a level I would buy?

A: Yes, that is honoring the map. When your short target sits at the exact level you are looking to go long, exiting the short there is a clean decision, not lost upside. You bank the down move and reset for the trade the plan already flagged.

How do I watch the live ES trading session?

A: There is now a Zoom simulcast on YouTube. Open YouTube in your browser, click Join on the channel, and you can watch the live stream each day. Traders are on 15 minutes before the market opens.

📅 Upcoming This Week

Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:

• Friday, Fri Sep 25: AM Briefing · Live Stream