ONE YEAR
TRADE ANALYTICS
3M RTH Chart
Basic Core Strategy: The Three “Basic” Bounce Levels Taught In Bootcamp
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Last Updated: Sat March 20, 2024.

VIDEO 1: QUICK OVERVIEW OF RESULTS
This Is No Guarantee Of Results.
I Can Only Promise To Teach You The Levels.
Video Transcript
Alright, exciting day! We finished one year of our end-of-the-day charts and keeping track of the success rate. This morning, we did a marathon marking session for three hours, and I think looking at that many days in a row was really eye-opening. If you’re in my group, go to the trading floor and read some of the comments of people who participated in that 3-hour level marking marathon.

So, over the past year (and I wish I’d done this for all the years), one year ago I said, “You know what? I really need to get some statistics behind me so that we can have some data behind what we do.” And we have a lot of data, and I’m just going to share with you the top-level data.

So, the number of trades: about 900 trades. Okay, so that is trading every day of the week that the market is open, and you get about 250 trading days a year. So let’s do a little math here, I’m just curious: 873 / 250. So let’s say about four trades a day. That is going to vary because we sometimes get zero trades and sometimes we get 10 to 12 trades, but on average, four trades a day. Not bad.

And then we have, so about 900 trades, 800 of them winners. That ain’t bad. That’s not bad at all. In fact, what does that look like as a percentage? Again, let’s go to the calculator: 781 / 873. So about 90%. And I find, about 92% in fact. I include the break evens as winners, so I really need to do that. 781 plus 76. To me, break evens are winners. Divided by 873. So if you do it that way, we’re somewhere between 90 and 98, and that’s why I typically find, personally, about 92% win rates when I’m firing on all cylinders, somewhere right in the middle of that range. That makes sense to me.

Sixteen losers. Well, about halfway through the year, I started marking, you know what? I’ve got to pay attention to when these losers are. If they’re during New York lunch, that’s my no-trade zone. And for half the year, of me realizing I need to track that, five of those 16 losses, a third (and remember that was only half the year), so it’s probably 2/3 of all the losers, occurred during New York lunch. That’s why I recommend that is not a time that you should be trading.

And if you were part of the three-hour marathon this morning of marking levels over the last two months, what did we discover? The morning levels are respected the best. The afternoon, not so much, especially New York lunch. Look at the comments on the trading floor, and you’ll see what other members have mentioned. In fact, if you were part of that, please go into the trading floor and tell me what you thought you discovered by doing that many days of end-of-the-day charts. It’s a different experience than when you just do them one day at a time. When you do 30 or 40 days at once, it’s a different experience.

So, from the top level, I did a count of how many were counter, how many were chop, how many were with the trend. Now, for the next year, I am going to be changing up a little bit of how I track this. For example, when I see these loser categories and I see the with-the-trend trade at four losses, I know what that is. That is when price is, let’s just use an example, leading down. Let’s use this example: price is leading down. Okay, at some point, it gets tired and rips back the other way. Well, when it rips back the other way, it’s going to take out two or three with-the-trend trades that are at least one trend with the trend trade until, to me, the trend changed. Okay, because we go from trend down to chop to trend up. Okay, it doesn’t go bull-bear or bear-bull as well.

So these four losses, I know they are most likely when price decides to rip the other way after it’s trending one direction and it rips, or it could be going up, consolidates, rips. So trades that would have been counted as with the trend get their faces ripped off. So I’m going to pay attention to that for the next year of metrics. Is that after the third ladder, the fifth ladder, the 12th ladder? Where does that happen? Yeah, I know I’m going to have a with-the-trend loss, and I know we’re going to have losses, but I also want to know where is that occurring? If that’s after the fifth ladder, I’m not taking the trade anyway. I only want to be in the trade the second and third. If I do the fourth or fifth, it’s one tiny little contract because I know the risk of price ripping back against me becomes higher.

So that’s some of the things I’m going to be paying attention to for the next year. In addition to, are they weak levels or strong levels? Not from our indicator, but is there proper valley and peak construction with a backside, a front side, and a break level, or is it just a break level by itself and it never developed a backside, it never developed a front side? That’s a weak break level. I want to know the difference between the weak and the strong. So we’re going to be paying attention to some different metrics coming up for the next year. But this is just basic. If you do boot camp and you learn the first three levels, this is what you learn at boot camp. You learn to mark these levels on your chart. Not bad. And then we trade them live on Zoom in the morning, and in the afternoon, I post charts and we make comments based off the afternoon trading. It is not the most optimal time in which you should be trading.

So, very interesting data. And if we scroll down, we’ll see much more data, but I’ll reserve that for members of my group. But this is the high-level view of our core strategy success rate.

VIDEO 2: DEEPER DIVE
A “Members Only” Video
I Am Sharing With You.
Transcript
Alright, exciting day! We finished one year of our end-of-the-day charts and keeping track of the success rate. This morning, we did a marathon marking session for three hours, and I think looking at that many days in a row was really eye-opening. If you’re in my group, go to the trading floor and read some of the comments of people who participated in that 3-hour level marking marathon.

So, over the past year (and I wish I’d done this for all the years), one year ago I said, “You know what? I really need to get some statistics behind me so that we can have some data behind what we do.” And we have a lot of data, and I’m just going to share with you the top-level data.

So, the number of trades: about 900 trades. Okay, so that is trading every day of the week that the market is open, and you get about 250 trading days a year. So let’s do a little math here, I’m just curious: 873 / 250. So let’s say about four trades a day. That is going to vary because we sometimes get zero trades and sometimes we get 10 to 12 trades, but on average, four trades a day. Not bad.

And then we have, so about 900 trades, 800 of them winners. That ain’t bad. That’s not bad at all. In fact, what does that look like as a percentage? Again, let’s go to the calculator: 781 / 873. So about 90%. And I find, about 92% in fact. I include the break evens as winners, so I really need to do that. 781 plus 76. To me, break evens are winners. Divided by 873. So if you do it that way, we’re somewhere between 90 and 98, and that’s why I typically find, personally, about 92% win rates when I’m firing on all cylinders, somewhere right in the middle of that range. That makes sense to me.

Sixteen losers. Well, about halfway through the year, I started marking, you know what? I’ve got to pay attention to when these losers are. If they’re during New York lunch, that’s my no-trade zone. And for half the year, of me realizing I need to track that, five of those 16 losses, a third (and remember that was only half the year), so it’s probably 2/3 of all the losers, occurred during New York lunch. That’s why I recommend that is not a time that you should be trading.

And if you were part of the three-hour marathon this morning of marking levels over the last two months, what did we discover? The morning levels are respected the best. The afternoon, not so much, especially New York lunch. Look at the comments on the trading floor, and you’ll see what other members have mentioned. In fact, if you were part of that, please go into the trading floor and tell me what you thought you discovered by doing that many days of end-of-the-day charts. It’s a different experience than when you just do them one day at a time. When you do 30 or 40 days at once, it’s a different experience.

So, from the top level, I did a count of how many were counter, how many were chop, how many were with the trend. Now, for the next year, I am going to be changing up a little bit of how I track this. For example, when I see these loser categories and I see the with-the-trend trade at four losses, I know what that is. That is when price is, let’s just use an example, leading down. Let’s use this example: price is leading down. Okay, at some point, it gets tired and rips back the other way. Well, when it rips back the other way, it’s going to take out two or three with-the-trend trades that are at least one trend with the trend trade until, to me, the trend changed. Okay, because we go from trend down to chop to trend up. Okay, it doesn’t go bull-bear or bear-bull as well.

So these four losses, I know they are most likely when price decides to rip the other way after it’s trending one direction and it rips, or it could be going up, consolidates, rips. So trades that would have been counted as with the trend get their faces ripped off. So I’m going to pay attention to that for the next year of metrics. Is that after the third ladder, the fifth ladder, the 12th ladder? Where does that happen? Yeah, I know I’m going to have a with-the-trend loss, and I know we’re going to have losses, but I also want to know where is that occurring? If that’s after the fifth ladder, I’m not taking the trade anyway. I only want to be in the trade the second and third. If I do the fourth or fifth, it’s one tiny little contract because I know the risk of price ripping back against me becomes higher.

So that’s some of the things I’m going to be paying attention to for the next year. In addition to, are they weak levels or strong levels? Not from our indicator, but is there proper valley and peak construction with a backside, a front side, and a break level, or is it just a break level by itself and it never developed a backside, it never developed a front side? That’s a weak break level. I want to know the difference between the weak and the strong. So we’re going to be paying attention to some different metrics coming up for the next year. But this is just basic. If you do boot camp and you learn the first three levels, this is what you learn at boot camp. You learn to mark these levels on your chart. Not bad. And then we trade them live on Zoom in the morning, and in the afternoon, I post charts and we make comments based off the afternoon trading. It is not the most optimal time in which you should be trading.

So, very interesting data. And if we scroll down, we’ll see much more data, but I’ll reserve that for members of my group. But this is the high-level view of our core strategy success rate.

THE TRADES
3M RTH Chart