AM BRIEFING

ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS

THE DAY BEFORE NON-FARM PAYROLL

Today is the day before non-farm payroll, and that alone changes how you size and select. It is typically a dangerous day to trade. The question is not what the market will do… it is what YOUR trade plan decides about trading into that risk.

On deck today:

• Unemployment claims: early economic read that can jolt the tape.
• PMI: drops 30 minutes after the market opens, so the open can get squirrelly.
• Non-farm payroll: the main show lands tomorrow… plan for it, do not get caught in front of it.

BATTLE PLAN 2 KEEPS PAYING

Battle Plan 2 has been the workhorse. Last night it went 50 points, and this morning it went again. We were willing to take that location at the opening, and you got a beautiful 50-point move up, then a drop right back down into the level.

This morning George got long around xx09 and came out at xx19… a clean 10-pointer. The reaction into the location was lethargic, and a new low got made, so he took what the location gave and banked a Green Day. Tonight’s Battle Plan will show the live trade play-by-play: the charts, the thinking, the entry, and the exit.

Why only a 10-pointer when the move kept going? Location was tired, and Battle Plan 2 had already been paying in 50-point clips. When the read is lethargic, you protect the win in hand.

THE THREE-CONTRACT SYSTEM GIVES YOU OPTIONS

Here is the real tell from this morning. George would still be long… but because he only had one contract on, he did not have as many options. One contract is one decision. So he reclaimed the level, moved his stop to capture 10 points, and took the 10-pointer.

That is the whole point of the Three-Contract System. More contracts means more choices: bank one, trail one, and still hold a runner for the extended move. With a single contract, you are forced into an all-or-nothing exit. The system is what lets you honor the win AND stay in the game.

LOOK FOR LONGS… IN THE RIGHT LOCATIONS

We will continue to look for longs until price tells us no longer. This is the place we should be looking for longs, and that simplifies the equation. Yesterday up high there was really nothing… George told the group he could not recommend a long up there.

Why? Because price is pressing into a super high timeframe trend line. You do not want to recommend anyone take a long against a trend line. The bias stays long, but the location has to earn it.

THE TREND LINE IS AN EXIT, NOT AN ENTRY

As price enters that high timeframe trend line, treat it as a great place to EXIT your long. Say thank you, take your money, and step aside… because we are most likely going to come back in. After the exit, price retraced to the bull-bear line and is now attacking it again.

Over on NQ you saw the same story: a massive overnight move, a pull back to its halfback, and now a clear of that area. George was out of the trade, did well, and now it is time to sit back and wait for something new.

WHAT HAPPENS IF WE ROLL OVER

Because the Battle Plan 2 location was lethargic again, George made sure to capture the 10-pointer. The reason is simple: if we roll over, it could be a really strong move down… and that is great. We have deeper Battle Plan trades mapped that we will trade together if price gets down there.

That is the posture. Bank what the tired location gives, keep your powder dry, and let the deeper levels come to you. Then meet back up 15 minutes before the market opens to trade it live.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

Why is the day before non-farm payroll dangerous to trade?

A: The day ahead of a major jobs report often carries thin, jumpy price action as traders position and de-risk. With unemployment claims and PMI also hitting, the ES futures tape can whip. The move is to decide your plan in advance and trade smaller or stand down rather than react into the news.

What is Battle Plan 2 and why does it keep working?

A: Battle Plan is MicrosTrader’s tiered nightly ES trade plan, with levels numbered BP1 and up. Battle Plan 2 is the second tier, and lately it has been producing 50-point moves at a clip, making it a high-confidence location to lean long from.

What is the Three-Contract System?

A: It is MicrosTrader’s core position-sizing framework. Trading three contracts instead of one gives you options… you can bank a quick scalp, trail a second, and hold a third as a runner for the extended move. With a single contract you only get one exit decision, so the system is what lets you take profitTake ProfitYour target—where you take money off the table. Having a plan for profits is just as important as stops. Don't get greedy. Full entry → and stay in the trade at the same time.

Why not hold the winner for the full move instead of taking a 10-pointer?

A: Two reasons today. George had only one contract on, so it was an all-or-nothing exit. And the location was lethargic after Battle Plan 2 had already paid in 50-point clips, so banking the clean 10 points was the disciplined read.

Why should I never take a long against a high timeframe trend line?

A: A high timeframe trend line is heavy overhead resistance. Buying straight into it means fighting the structure, so the odds are stacked against you. George treats that trend line as a place to exit longs, not enter them.

What is the bull-bear line?

A: The bull-bear line is the key level that divides bullish control from bearish control. After exiting at the trend line, price retraced back to the bull-bear line and began attacking it again, which tells you where the fight for bias is happening.

What is a halfback and why did it matter on NQ?

A: A halfback is the midpoint of a prior session’s range, used as a key reference level. NQ made a massive overnight move, pulled back to its halfback, and then cleared that area… a textbook example of price respecting the midpoint before continuing.

What does it mean to look for longs “in the right locations”?

A: A long bias does not mean buying anywhere. It means waiting for price to reach a mapped, high-probability level before you lean in. That selectivity simplifies the equation and keeps you out of low-quality trades the chart never actually offered.

What is the plan if the market rolls over?

A: If price rolls over it could be a really strong move down, and that is fine. MicrosTrader has deeper Battle Plan levels mapped below, so the group will trade those together if price gets down there. You bank the current win, keep powder dry, and let the lower levels come to you.

📅 Upcoming This Week

Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:

• Friday, Fri Oct 2: AM Briefing · Live Stream