AM BRIEFING

ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS

WHERE WE ARE: A MULTI-DAY BALANCE

Monday and Tuesday kept us inside the same range, and we are still there. On the 30-minute chart we keep skipping along a daily trend line we have watched for days. This is a balance area… price rotating between an upper and a lower edge with no clean break yet.

▶ Watch this moment in the AM Briefing

Right now we are sitting in the upper distribution, hanging above the halfback of the prior move, pressed right up against that daily trend line. Take a peek at everyone else and it is the same story… the broader complex is camped in the upper distribution too.

• Multi-day balance: Price rotating inside a defined range across several sessions with no decisive breakout.
• Halfback: The midpoint of the prior session’s range. We are hanging just above it.
• Upper distribution: The top chunk of the balance where price has spent most of its time… the heavy, built-out zone.

YESTERDAY: A PIECE OF THE MOVE IS ENOUGH

BP3 gave us two looks yesterday. The Initial Balance range came in around 75 points, and we captured roughly 50 of them off that beautiful corner. Depending on how you managed the trade… 10, 20, 30, 40, 50… you took your slice. There is a full recap video on the YouTube channel if you want to walk the trade.

▶ Watch this moment in the AM Briefing

The point: all you ever need is a piece of the move. Not every trade is going to be a big trade, and that is fine. You took most of the available range and you booked it.

BULLS CONTROL: HOW TO HANDLE A SHORT HERE

Are we above the Bull Bear Line? Yes, we are. Everything is showing great strength. In George’s humble opinion, the bulls control. George is actually short… he took a MES short at a decent location overnight, price moved about 10 to 12 points in his favor, and he got taken out on it. This morning he took one more stab at a little short… and he fully expects to be taken out again.

▶ Watch this moment in the AM Briefing

That is the mindset. When bulls control, a short is a microwave trade. You heat it up fast, you take what it gives, and you get out. The overnight trend line slopes down, we are under VWAP, and we are well under the daily trend line… but none of that is a command to go short.

If one of those microwave shorts does give you a real move, you already know the target… a rotation back down toward the floor, the bottom of this multi-day range. That is the only place the short earns its keep.

HOLDING THE RUNNER: PLAYING CHESS FOR THE BIG MOVE

If you were long from yesterday, depending on the account you have, you may still be holding. Price has not come back to the entry location, so those runners are holding a lot of water. That is playing perfect chess for the big move… the board is mapped, so you let the runner work.

The counterweight today is earnings. Tesla and Meta report after the close, with IBM also on the tape. A runner held through an earnings event is exposed to a gap you cannot manage. Weigh the chess against the calendar before you carry size into the bell.

SEASONALITY AND INITIATING NEW TRADES

The seasonality chart from Equity Talk shows a dip and then a strong shoot up… so be careful trying to short this type of move. Seasonality is a caution flag, not a signal. It is telling you the tape can rip higher when you least want it to.

Put it all together and George is not excited to initiate new trades here. That does not mean you need to be short. If you are going to pick a trade at this location, you are either already long and holding, or you can entertain the idea of a possible short… even if that just means a rotation back down to the multi-day range low. Standing aside with no new position is a legitimate choice.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

What does it mean to treat a short like a microwave trade?

A: It means you take the short fast and get out fast. When the bulls control and price is above the Bull Bear Line, a counter-trend short has a short shelf life. You enter, you know exactly where you are wrong, you take the quick piece if it comes, and you do not marry the position. Heat it up, grab it, exit.

What is a multi-day balance in ES futures?

A: A multi-day balance is a range that price rotates inside over several sessions without a decisive breakout. Monday and Tuesday both stayed inside this one. In balance you trade the edges and expect rotation back toward the middle or the opposite side, rather than chasing a trend that is not there yet.

What is the Bull Bear Line and why does it matter today?

A: The Bull Bear Line is the key level that divides bullish control from bearish control. Today price is holding above it, which is one of the reasons George reads the session as bulls control. As long as price stays above that line, shorts are counter-trend and should be treated with caution.

Why capture only 50 points of a 75-point move?

A: Because a piece of the move is enough. Yesterday’s Initial Balance range was about 75 points and we took roughly 50 off BP3. Trying to nail the exact top and bottom is how traders give back profit. Booking the clean middle chunk of a range is a win, not a shortfall.

Should I hold a runner into an earnings day close?

A: Be careful. Tesla and Meta report after today’s close, with IBM also reporting. A runner carried through earnings is exposed to an overnight gap you cannot manage once the market is closed. If you hold, do it with full awareness of the gap risk… or take it off before the bell.

What is the halfback and how is it used as a level?

A: The halfback is the midpoint of the prior session’s range. Traders use it as a key reference level. Today price is hanging just above the halfback inside the upper distribution, which keeps the near-term read constructive while we stay pinned to the daily trend line.

Does being under VWAP mean I should go short?

A: No. Price can sit under VWAP and under a daily trend line while the bulls still control the larger picture. Those readings tell you a short could work IF you find a clean setup… they are not a standing order to sell. You still need a defined entry and a defined invalidation.

What does seasonality say about shorting here?

A: The seasonality read shows a dip followed by a strong move higher, so it is a caution against trying to short into that type of pattern. Seasonality is context, not a trade trigger. It reminds you the tape can rip up when you are leaning the wrong way.

Is it okay to take no new trade at all?

A: Yes. When you are not excited about the location, standing aside is a legitimate position. You do not have to be long and you do not have to be short. In a multi-day balance with earnings after the close, patience protects your capital and your mindset for the days that actually pay.

📅 Upcoming This Week

Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:

• Thursday, Thu Oct 22: AM Briefing · Live Stream
• Friday, Fri Oct 23: AM Briefing · Live Stream