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THE DAY AFTER FOMC, THE DAY BEFORE OPEX

Caution, caution, caution. What does your trade plan say about trading the day before option expiration? What does it say about trading FOMC? No one has to trade FOMC. As George said in last night’s Battle Plan… if you choose to trade FOMC, you deserve to lose. Sometimes the truth is just brutal.

Layer the calendar on top and the message gets louder. This is a low-conviction window sitting on top of a monster move, and the professional move is to respect it.

TIP OF THE DAY: GO DEEPER ON YOUR TRANSFORMATION STATEMENT

All week we have talked about your personal transformation statement… the statement you write in your trade journal every day. It is who you are trying to become. Yesterday Scott updated his, and it read something like: I am a prepared, patient, professional trader who trades Core Strategy levels on the ES/MES during RTHRTH (Regular Trading Hours)9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time. This is when the big money is active. Higher volume, tighter spreads, more reliable price action. Full entry → sessions. Clean. He even defined the timeframe he trades. He made no directional statement, and that is totally fine… that is why there are 31 flavors at Baskin-Robbins.

But George’s challenge is to go deeper. Don’t stop at a word… define it.

• Prepared: What does prepared actually mean? List it out, 1 through 10.
• Patient: What does patient mean to you? List it, 1 through 5.
• Professional: A professional trader is also a professional loser. You have to know how to take losses like a pro. Define it, 1 through 6.

Think of the Serenity Prayer. Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change… so list those things out. Courage to change the things I can… list those out. In counseling and in AA, you make a person name each one. Do the same with your own statement so it stops being a slogan and becomes a map.

YESTERDAY’S MAP: BATTLE PLAN 4 TO BATTLE PLAN 6

We went live for the FOMC yesterday afternoon, and there is a short recap video plus the free review section inside the Battle Plan you can read every day. Here is how the map played, because it shows why the levels matter.

• Battle Plan 4 drop zone: Price dropped right into the zone and gave a phenomenal bounce, catapulting up. George waited for a deeper fill and did not get long until it was already up 20 points. On the recap he noted that if you were up 20, you could snag your 20-pointer and call it… targets are not promises.
• The Bull Bear Line target: His target was the break of the top up into the Bull Bear Line. He trailed at 50% and snagged a 10-pointer. Where he recommends taking profit is often a great spot for the opposite trade… one advanced trader who loves shorts worked it back down from there.
• The mapped short between BP4 and BP6: No longs were mapped between those two levels… only a short, with the ultimate take-profit down at Battle Plan 6. The strong level defended beautifully.
• Battle Plan 6, the two-or-die long: This was where the bulls had to defend. George said it should go 100 points. It ran 105. Overnight, Battle Plan 1 easily reached target and the strong levels kept holding.

This is what we do. Someone with thousands of live sessions maps the most important levels for the week the night before, and we craft trades off them.

THE HONEST MISTAKE: ADDING TOO EARLY

George was frustrated with himself. He added to his winning trade too early, and a little pullback took him out before the projected 100-pointer completed. His own read: livestreaming changed his behavior. Without the stream on, he would not have added there. That one cost him the easy 100 of the week.

▶ Watch this moment in the AM Briefing

So should he trade today? Probably not. And here is the deeper point… you cannot trade emotionless. Throw out the advice about getting rid of your emotions. They are just part of trading. The job is to recognize when emotions accumulate to the point where they push you into moves you would not otherwise make. You could see a trader miss that 100-pointer and snap… screw it, I’m shorting this. Good luck with that.

LONGS ONLY: DON’T FIGHT THE UPTREND

Take a peek at everybody. The uptrend is looking good and everything is basically going to have upward-slanting VWAPs. This is beautiful… please do not be shorting this. That is the one piece of advice. The trade is already long or flat.

▶ Watch this moment in the AM Briefing

This is also why the group focuses on longs. Yesterday’s 105-point launch was a lotto runner… a violent move for the adrenaline junkies who like to trade. George is rarely in them and could care less. But hold these runners, keep holding, and you get paid. It is the easiest money you will ever make and it grows your account. Green Over Greed still rules how you take it off.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

Should you trade the day after FOMC and the day before option expiration?

A: Your trade plan should already answer this before the open. These are low-conviction, distorted windows, especially stacked on top of a big move. No one has to trade FOMC. If your plan says stand down around FOMC and OPEX, follow it.

What is a personal transformation statement in trading?

A: It is a written statement of who you are trying to become as a trader, journaled every day. A strong one names your qualities, your instrument and timeframe, and the big why underneath it. Example structure: I am a prepared, patient, professional trader who trades Core Strategy levels on the ES/MES during RTH sessions.

How do you make a transformation statement actually work?

A: Go deeper than the words. Take each word like prepared or patient and define it in a list, 1 through 5. Then entwine your big why… the reason that moves you emotionally. A statement you can define and feel becomes a map instead of a slogan.

What is the Bull Bear Line?

A: The Bull Bear Line is the key dividing level between bullish and bearish bias. Above it the group looks for longs. Yesterday it was the upside target for the move off the Battle Plan 4 drop zone.

What is a two-or-die level on the Battle Plan?

A: It is the level where the bulls must defend or the move dies. Battle Plan 6 was the two-or-die long yesterday… the spot George projected should run 100 points. It ran 105. Mapping where the bulls must come alive is how the Battle Plan trades are crafted.

Why does the group only trade longs when VWAPs are slanting up?

A: When VWAPVolume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)The average price weighted by volume. Institutions use this to measure their execution quality. Above VWAP = bullish. Below VWAP = bearish. Full entry → is rising across sessions, the path of least resistance is up. Shorting a clean uptrend fights the tape, and the trade is already long or flat. Trading with the trend keeps you aligned with structure instead of against it.

Can you trade without emotions?

A: No, and the advice to get rid of your emotions is wrong. Emotions are part of trading. The skill is recognizing when they accumulate to a point where they push you into moves you would not normally make, then stepping aside until the emotion dissipates.

What is a lotto runner?

A: A lotto runner is a speculative, extended runner you hold for a large move. Yesterday’s 105-point launch was one. You hold it, keep holding, and let it pay… while managing the rest of your position with Green Over GreedGreen Over GreedA psychological rule reminding you to lock in a profitable ("green") day and walk away rather than risking those profits by overtrading. Full entry →.

Why did George choose not to trade today after missing the move?

A: He added to a winner too early because livestreaming changed his behavior, and it cost him the easy 100-pointer of the week. Frustrated, he chose to let the emotion settle rather than trade on it. Recognizing that state and standing down is itself a professional trade decision.

📅 Upcoming This Week

Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:

• Friday, Fri Sep 18: AM Briefing · Live Stream