AM BRIEFING

ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS

CONTRACT ROLLOVER AND A LEVEL 10 WEEK

Two things frame everything today. First, contract rollover. Starting tonight we trade the new contract, so tonight’s nightly ES plan gets written on the new contract and may run late while George handles the roll. Second, the calendar is loaded.

Here is the runway George laid out:

• Tomorrow: the day before FOMC.
• Then FOMC: the rate decision itself.
• Then the day before OPEX, and then OPEX.

On the Fed watch, George noted the odds of a rate hike sitting around 86.5%. Put it together and it is a Level 10 week… the highest respect setting on the dial. There is no other way to look at it.

BATTLE PLAN BASICS: THE MONDAY REFRESHER

George runs this every Monday so nobody trades the plan blind. The Battle Plan is the nightly ES trade plan… the zigzag lines you see are the actual Battle Plan trades. Each little elbow marks where he thinks an entry would exist, and the number sits where he thinks the best trade of that setup probably lives.

• Battle Plan: updated every night. The tiered trades, BP1 and up.
• Strong Levels: updated every Sunday. The most important levels on the chart. Battle Plan trades tend to surround these Strong Levels.
• Together: the two combined are the plan. If price drops into the Battle Plan area, you take the entry that most aligns with what you think will happen, then look for price to hit the next Strong Level.

From there you take profits and hold a little lotto runnerLotto RunnerA "risk-free" contract held after initial profits are locked in. Your stop is moved to break-even (or slightly profitable), allowing you to potentially capture a massive move—100+ points—with zero risk. Full entry → just in case price keeps going. Sometimes a runner is a scout for 5, 10, 15 points. Sometimes you catch the amazing one… last week gave a 90 point runner. Want to learn the mechanics? The free Battle Plan Boot Camp is at microstrader.com.

THE 50 POINT GAP DOWN AND YOUR BOUNCE LEVELS

We gapped down 50 points, the biggest gap in a little while. George flagged the risk plainly: he pulled a lot of runner into the weekend, and anything can happen over two days. High risk on whatever you hold through the weekend. That is the trade-off of carrying size into a Friday close.

▶ Watch this moment in the AM Briefing

After a gap that big, three levels earn a spot on your chart. Price respects them through the week, especially when the gap is large:

• Sunday’s opening: where the new week opened.
• Friday’s close: the prior week’s settle.
• 50% of the new week opening gap: the midpoint between the two.

These are bounce levels. Today price came into the 50% level, pushed down, gave a baby bounce, lost the level, handed back a gift of breakevenBreakevenMoving your stop to your entry price once the trade moves in your favor. You're now risk-free! This is a psychological win. Full entry →, and then continued its journey. On the same gap down, NQ took out last week’s low… ES did not go quite that far and started reclaiming.

WALKING BATTLE PLANS 1 THROUGH 4

George mapped Friday night as if it would be a normal opening… he has no other choice, since he cannot know the gap in advance. Here is how the tiers read.

▶ Watch this moment in the AM Briefing

Battle Plan 1 called a minor pullback to the Bull Bear Line, reclaiming the Strong Levels above. The note carried the real tell: if the bulls are real, that should be as low as we go. That is why he made it the Bull Bear Line. Below it, be careful.

Battle Plan 2 dropped into the drop zone, looking for price to get above and then offer a long. George was less eager here than on BP1. Still a trade, but a small target… a scalper’s trade, not a big reaction.

Battle Plan 3 asked the question directly: can the bulls defend this Strong Level again? The biggest level last week was 7590, and BP3 sat on it. Lose that Strong Level and George wants price down to Battle Plan 4, which is further away. He said it flat… if we lose that, he does not think the bulls are real here, and he would much prefer to trade BP4 live together.

COUNT YOUR STRONG LEVELS, THEN KEEP YOUR POWER DRY

By late morning George counted the ground covered: three Battle Plan trades traversed and six Strong Levels traversed. That number matters. Typically 5 to 7 Strong Levels is as much of a down move as you get. Sitting at six means the move has done most of its usual work.

He was honest about the tape… not excited to trade this area, with a real divergence on the chart. Are we all on the same train? No. He flagged that a loss of VALValue Area Low (VAL)The lower boundary of that same 70% volume zone. This is the "discount zone." Buyers typically step in here. When price dips to VAL, smart money is often accumulating. Full entry → and a bigger move down there could get interesting, but that is a watch, not a trade. There is a fresh Overnight Low to play with.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

What is contract rollover in ES futures?

A: Rollover is the scheduled transition from one quarterly futures contract to the next. On rollover night the nightly ES plan gets written on the new contract, so the Battle Plan may post a little later than usual while the roll is handled. Make sure your chart and levels are on the new contract before you trade it.

Why is this called a Level 10 week?

A: Level 10 is the highest respect setting for the calendar. This week stacks the day before FOMC, the FOMC decision itself, the day before OPEX, and OPEX. Big, news-driven events raise the odds of sharp, whippy moves, so the plan is clean, clear trades only… no forcing, no dropping time frames.

What is the Bull Bear Line?

A: It is the level that divides bullish from bearish behavior. In today’s plan it marked how low price should go if the bulls are truly in control. Reclaiming the Strong Levels above it keeps the bull case alive… losing it says the rally was likely short covering rather than real demand.

What are the bounce levels after a big gap down?

A: After a large gap, three levels tend to get respected through the week: Sunday’s opening, Friday’s close, and 50% of the new week opening gap. Price often reacts at these, so they act as bounce levels. Today price bounced at the 50% level, lost it, and continued lower.

What is a short covering rally?

A: It is a move higher driven by shorts buying back to close positions rather than by fresh buyers stepping in. It can look like real strength, but it fades once the covering is done. A rally that cannot hold the Bull Bear Line is a classic tell that the bulls were not real.

How does the Battle Plan work with Strong Levels?

A: The Battle Plan is updated nightly and holds the tiered trades, BP1 and up. Strong Levels are updated every Sunday and mark the most important prices. When price drops into the Battle Plan area you take the entry that fits your read, then target the next Strong Level and hold a small runner.

How many Strong Levels usually make up a down move?

A: Typically 5 to 7 Strong Levels traversed is as much of a down move as you get. Once price has covered six of them, most of the usual downside is spent. That is a signal to keep your power dry rather than chase fresh shorts into a tired move.

What is a lotto runner and how do you manage it?

A: A lotto runner is a small piece of a position you hold after taking profits, in case price keeps going. Most of the time it scouts for 5, 10, or 15 points. Once in a while it catches the big one… last week a runner carried 90 points. Just know the weekend risk of holding one through a Friday close.

Why wait for the best entries instead of trading every setup?

A: On a Level 10 week the reward for patience is high and the punishment for forcing is worse. Clean, clear trades protect both your capital and your mindset. There will be plenty of opportunity, so you keep your power dry and let the mapped levels come to you.

📅 Upcoming This Week

Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:

• Tuesday, Tue Sep 15: AM Briefing · Live Stream
• Wednesday, Wed Sep 16: AM Briefing · Live Stream
• Thursday, Thu Sep 17: AM Briefing · Live Stream
• Friday, Fri Sep 18: AM Briefing · Live Stream