ES & MES Trade Plans and One Great ES Setup From Friday: Monday Oct 27

Opening Remarks

In a week packed with market-moving events like FOMC announcements and big tech earnings, it’s easy to get lost in the noise. As a trader, it’s tempting to search for a secret edge—a hidden indicator, an inside scoop, or a prediction that will finally unlock consistent profits. But this entire approach is built on a flawed premise. It focuses on trying to control what you can’t (news, market direction) while ignoring what you can (your process, discipline, and mindset).

What if the most powerful trading strategies have nothing to do with external events? What if the real edge isn’t about predicting the future but about mastering your own behavior? The most potent takeaways often focus on the internal game—the part that separates struggling traders from consistent ones.

This article explores four surprising lessons from a trader’s AM Briefing that shift the focus from the what of the market to the how and why of your trading.

Treat Shorts Like a Microwave, Longs Like an Oven

This simple metaphor provides a powerful rule for managing trades differently. A “microwave trade” refers to shorts: you see a profit, and you take it quickly. In contrast, an “oven trade” refers to longs: something you allow to sit and mature.

The crucial, non-negotiable condition for this rule is that the market must be trending bullish and “Bulls are in control.” In this scenario, the strategy is to hold onto a “runner” and let profits grow, much like baking something slowly in an oven.

The Psychology Behind the Rule

This analogy helps combat two major psychological pitfalls in trading: greed on shorts and fear on longs.

When bulls are in control, the greatest risk is cutting a winning long trade too early out of fear of reversal. On the other hand, trying to squeeze every last tick out of a short against a strong bullish trend invites disaster. The microwave/oven metaphor offers a mechanical rule to override those primal emotions with a rational, process-based approach.

Stop Trying to Call the Top

During strong bull runs, social media platforms like Twitter light up with calls for a “blow-off top.” It’s tempting to get caught up in the drama and try to be the hero who nails the exact reversal. But this mindset is one of the most dangerous games a trader can play.

As one trader wisely put it: “We could get another, ‘oh, there is no deal’ tweet and we vomit 150 points.” The point is—nobody knows what will happen next.

Don’t fall for the illusion that someone out there has the answer. Don’t start thinking, “Oh, that guy must know.” No—they don’t.

The Psychology Behind the Rule

The desire to “call the top” is rarely strategic—it’s emotional, driven by ego. It stems from the need to feel smarter than the market and to gain external validation. This ego-driven trading mindset often leads to ruin.

True success in trading requires humility—the discipline to trade the trend that exists, not the one you wish would appear. This shift from trying to predict the market to managing yourself is what separates professionals from gamblers.

Measure Your Process, Not Your Profit

It’s natural to fixate on your P&L as the ultimate scorecard. But in the short term, P&L is a deceptive metric. A lucky trade can yield a huge profit despite a terrible process. Meanwhile, a well-executed trade can still end in a small loss.

The long-term key is shifting focus away from random outcomes and toward disciplined execution.

The Psychology Behind the Rule

Markets operate on probabilities, not certainties. That randomness means a bad process can be rewarded and a good process can be punished in the short term, creating dangerous feedback loops.

The only thing you truly control is your process. That’s the variable you can improve, and over time, it’s what leads to consistency.

This means asking better questions—replacing “How much did I make today?” with things like, “What percentage of my trades matched my plan?” or “How often did I stick to my max of three trades today?”

The goal is to move from outcome-based trading to character-based trading.

Learn to Have Faith in Your Drawdowns

No concept in trading feels more counter-intuitive than this: you must learn to have faith in your drawdowns.

A drawdown—a sustained period of loss—is usually seen as a sign of failure. But consider the metaphor of the biblical story of Joseph being thrown into prison unjustly. Even when you’re doing everything right but still losing—when you’re in the “prison of drawdown”—this is the moment to double down on discipline.

Joseph’s story hits different when you’re sitting through a brutal drawdown.

The Psychology Behind the Rule

A drawdown is a period of forced introspection. With no dopamine hits from winning trades, you’re left with only your discipline and self-awareness. This is the crucible where professional habits are forged.

In these moments, your commitment to process, your rejection of ego-driven predictions, and your adherence to rules like the microwave/oven analogy are put to the ultimate test. It’s in this quiet struggle where your future edge is born.

Conclusion: Trading Your Character

While the market obsesses over headlines and predictions, these four lessons point to a different, deeper path. They suggest that enduring trading success comes not from forecasting the future but from mastering internal discipline and psychological resilience.

So here’s the challenge: instead of asking, “How much did I make today?”, find the courage to ask, “How disciplined was I today?” That answer will ultimately define your success.

Trading Psychology and Strategy – Q&A

Question 1: What two major events are anticipated to bring volatility this week, and on which days do the largest tech earnings occur?

A: The two major events are FOMC and tech earnings. The largest tech earnings are scheduled for Wednesday, featuring Meta, Microsoft, and Google, and Thursday, featuring Amazon and Apple.

Question 2: Instead of focusing solely on P&L, what principle is recommended for long-term trading success, and what types of metrics are suggested to track performance?

A: The recommended focus is “process over profits.” Suggested metrics to track performance include the percentage of trades that matched the trade plan or counting the number of days with three trades or less. Focusing on discipline in this manner builds character-based trading.

Question 3: According to the trading strategy discussion, what is the recommended approach for handling shorts versus longs when the bulls are in control?

A: When the bulls control, shorts should be treated like a microwave trade (meaning the trader should “see money, take money“), while longs should be treated like they are in the oven, encouraging the trader to try to hold onto the runner.

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