ES Emini AM Briefing #794

AM BRIEFING

ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS

The Risk Sandwich — Post-FOMC + OPEX + Holiday-Closed Friday

The day after FOMC is often JUST AS DANGEROUS as FOMC itself. Stack OPEX on top of that. Then add a closed market tomorrow for Juneteenth. That’s three risk multipliers in a single session — and most traders will treat it like any other Thursday.

Yesterday’s FOMC alone moved like this:

• 75 points down on the initial spike
• 70 points up on the bounce
• 115 points back down for the second leg
• 100+ point rebound overnight to retrace most of it

That’s 360+ points of total movement across about 18 hours. On a session like today, your written trade plan outranks the Battle Plan. If the conditions don’t match what you wrote down, Stand Down. Did your trade plan account for FOMC volatility? Did you actually follow it? Now — while it’s fresh — is the time to adjust. Not next week. Not after the next painful trade. Now.

Bounce Power — The Core Concept Of Yesterday’s Session

This is the single most valuable lesson from the trade review. Every time price taps a Strong Level and bounces, it steals some of that level’s BOUNCE POWER. The first tap is always the freshest. The most loaded. The highest-probability reaction.

Yesterday’s Sunday-published Strong Level got tapped multiple times:

• First tap: Clean bounce, full extension, easy 20-pointer. The trade.
• Second tap: Smaller bounce, weaker follow-through.
• Third tap: Marginal reaction.
• Eventually: The level FAILS — and the dump that follows is exactly what you’d expect from a level that has been bled dry.

This is why the first published Battle Plan entry is almost always the highest-quality entry. It’s not arbitrary. The setup degrades with every tap that doesn’t break the level. Take the first one… or wait for the failure-and-reclaim.

The Afternoon Short — How To Add To A Winner Without Giving Anything Back

Battle Plan 3 yesterday set up as a progression of two shorts targeting the bull bear line. Here’s the EXACT mechanics of how the trade was managed — because adding to a winner is one of the hardest skills in futures trading, and most people do it wrong.

The setup:

1. First short entry off the Strong Level — small size, stop above structure.
2. Stop moved to break even almost immediately. One or two ticks risk.
3. Pre-set order to ADD at the next Strong Level below. Not a discretionary chase — a planned add.
4. 10-point lock-in on the original contract. The original trade can no longer lose.
5. Add fills automatically. Combined stop moves to capture the original 10 points across both contracts.
6. 20-point lock-in as price continues. Stop trails again.
7. Exit ~10 points from the next Battle Plan long entry. Don’t fight the next plan — book it.

The trade was already heavy on bounce power that had been stolen earlier in the session. The setup was clean. The execution was MECHANICAL. No emotion. No “should I add or not?” moment. The order was sitting there. Price ripped through. The system did the work.

Missed Entries Are Part Of Trading — And That’s OK

The overnight Battle Plan 1 long ripped above the entry by 2 points before pulling back to the Strong Level. The order at 48 missed by a hair. The order ALMOST got moved to 50 — but didn’t. A near-miss on a clean 20-pointer.

What you DON’T do: market order in chase. The temptation was there. “I did so well yesterday I almost did a market order.” The discipline held. The trade got skipped. The 20-pointer happened without you.

This is the cost of price-precise entries. Sometimes the trade runs without you. You miss the move. You loathe the miss. You picture the Grinch when you say it. Then you wait for the NEXT setup — because there’s always a next setup.

Where We Stand Right Now — And The Setup Worth Watching

Going into the RTH open, here’s the structural read:

• Bulls control still. Above Sunday’s high. Above the Sunday opening.
• Inside previous day range. Not bearish. Not yet.
• VWAP upward-slanting with price in the upper distribution.
• RTH Halfback in play — the midpoint of yesterday’s range is right here.
• Dow not really participating in the upside — but not below yesterday’s low either. Neutral cross-confirm.
• 37-point overnight pullback already happened. Typical range is 40–60 points. Could see a deeper 50-point pullback to the next Strong Level.

The setup of interest: lose the two levels overhead, ladder back above. That’s the cleanest long re-entry on the chart right now. The wedge between the trendline and the Strong Levels above is where the decision gets made.

Next Week’s News Drivers — Back To Normal-ish

After today’s OPEX Thursday and tomorrow’s Juneteenth close, next week is shaping up cleaner:

None of the really REALLY big events. Translation: next week should be back to normal trading. Use today and tomorrow to reset. Journal yesterday’s FOMC trades while they’re fresh. Patch the holes in your trade plan that the volatility exposed.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

What is the bounce power concept in ES futures trading?

A: Bounce power is the idea that every time price taps a Strong Level and bounces, the level loses some of its reactive strength. The first tap is the freshest and produces the strongest, cleanest bounce. Each subsequent tap delivers a weaker reaction until the level eventually fails and breaks. That’s why the first published Battle Plan entry is almost always the highest-probability trade — you’re taking the level at its strongest, before the bounce power has been stolen by earlier taps.

Why is the day after FOMC often as dangerous as FOMC day?

A: The day after FOMC carries leftover positioning, unwinding hedges, and continued volatility as the market digests the prior day’s statement. Algos and large players reposition. Liquidity can be thin. Yesterday’s FOMC produced 360+ points of total movement across the session, and the overnight rebound has already retraced over 100 points of that. On post-FOMC sessions — especially when paired with OPEX or a holiday — your written trade plan outranks the Battle Plan.

What does it mean to Stand Down in trading?

A: Stand Down is a direct command in the MicrosTrader system to step away from the screen when conditions don’t match your written trade plan. It is not weakness — it is discipline. On Level 10 risk sessions like post-FOMC OPEX Thursdays, the cost of being wrong is multiplied. Stand Down means no trade, no exception, until conditions align with what you pre-decided to trade.

What is a Battle Plan in MicrosTrader’s system?

A: The Battle Plan is the daily tiered trade plan published by MicrosTrader.com. It contains specific entry levels labeled BP1 through BP5 (or BP6), each tied to a Strong Level on the chart. BP1 is typically the highest-probability entry of the day. The Battle Plan is delivered nightly so traders can plan their session before the market opens rather than reacting in real time.

What is the 3-Contract System and how does it work?

A: The 3-Contract System is MicrosTrader’s core position sizing framework. The first contract is taken off quickly for a base profit, the second is held for a measured target like a key level, and the third is held as a lotto runner to capture extended moves. This structure removes emotional exit decisions, locks in profit at multiple stages, and keeps you exposed to the big move without risking your earned profit.

How should I add to a winning trade on ES futures?

A: Place the add as a pre-set order at the next Strong Level along your direction. When the add fills, immediately move your combined stop so it still captures the original trade’s profit — never give back what you’ve already earned. The mechanical approach removes emotion: the order is sitting there, price ripped through, the system did the work. If your combined stop still risks the original profit, you’re not adding, you’re gambling.

What is OPEX and why does it matter for futures traders?

A: OPEX is options expiration — typically the third Friday of each month, with quarterly Quad Witch OPEX delivering even higher volume. Options market makers must rebalance massive hedges around OPEX, which produces unusual volatility, pinning behavior, and sharp reversals. When OPEX stacks with FOMC, contract rollover, or a holiday-shortened week, risk multiplies. Most disciplined traders cut size or Stand Down entirely.

What should I do when I miss an entry on a futures trade?

A: Let it go. Do not market-order chase. The discipline that earned your wins is the same discipline that requires you to wait for the next setup at the next level. A missed entry is the cost of price-precise trading — sometimes the trade runs without you. There’s always another trade. Loathing the miss is fine. Chasing it is what blows accounts.

How do Strong Levels work for overnight ES futures trading?

A: Strong Levels are key high-conviction price zones published in advance by MicrosTrader — typically marked on Sunday for the entire trading week. They are derived from prior session structure, value area extremes, and volume nodes. Overnight, Strong Levels often act as clean ping-pong zones, providing high-quality entries when price approaches them for the first time. Their reactive strength degrades with each tap, which is why the first visit is usually the best trade.