AM Briefing #802 · Hold That Runner — Your Best Trade Is The One You’re Already In

AM BRIEFING

ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS

THE RUNNER IS THE EASIEST TRADE ON THE BOARD

Tip of the day… hold that runner. You’re already in a winning trade. Do you need another trade? Do you need another trade? This week proved it again. Step back to Monday’s long. Depending on your account type, you could have held overnight or re-entered at the exact same price after an exit.

• Monday close: the long finished up roughly 80 points.
• By Tuesday: the screenshot caught it up 139 points at max… then one more pump took it toward almost 150 points.

You keep adjusting your trailing stop higher and higher behind one or two protection layers, or you park it below the RTH low if you want to be more aggressive. On a trailing drawdown account you can’t be as aggressive as trading your own cash… so you do you. We tend to get one or two trades a week that go 100 plus points. Which one is it going to be? I wish I knew. That’s exactly why you hold — because if price moves your direction, it can go, go, go.

OVEN TRADES VERSUS MICROWAVE TRADES

Here’s how to think about direction. I am much more apt to hold a long than a short. I treat shorts like microwave trades and longs like oven trades. I like that bread to stay in the oven and get fully done.

That’s why longs earn the multi-day hold and shorts don’t. When you nail a short it moves so fast and so aggressive it’s an easy payday — but that speed is also why you keep size small. You don’t need to be big on a short to do very, very well.

THE BATTLE PLAN: A TRICKY 7520 AND A CLEANER 7513

Overnight I did something unusual — I had two shorts mapped. I was really hoping for Battle Plan 1️⃣, and it almost happened but didn’t. So the focus shifted to Battle Plan 2️⃣, and the notes matter here.

• Adding, not just entering: Battle Plan 2️⃣ could be used to add to a Battle Plan 1️⃣ short if you’d already gotten short up higher.
• The 7520 caveat: 7520 could be a very tricky level. That’s the exact level that gave you the 100-pointer on Monday’s long… it’s been very trappy.
• The cleaner option: the better short might be off 7513 — because that’s back inside the range.

When a level is tricky, I usually draft both a long and a short off it, because it’s a level with a lot of polarity. After such a nice move up, and with the first two days already hitting the expected range, a rotation back the other direction would not be a shock.

DOES THIS TRADE FIT YOUR PLAN? CROSS-INDEX CONFLUENCE

One question belongs on every Battle Plan trade: does this trade fit my trade plan? I have traders who never, ever short ES. They look at a short setup and go — that’s not for me. In the indicator you can turn off Battle Plan 2️⃣ and never even see it. If it’s not in your plan, it doesn’t matter that it exists.

I also use cross-index confluence. Say NQ is coming up to a level where it’s likely to bounce north, and ES tends to flow with NQ. Shorting ES into that is a tougher trade. But if NQ is arriving at a spot to bounce price DOWN at the same time ES hits its short location — I like that. That’s multi-index confluence: two charts agreeing before you commit.

On this session the Asia session gave the signature we wanted — a first bounce, then a get-back-under. That’s a legit entry, and the Strong Level nearby might make it a better short still.

THE JOURNALING DASHBOARD: TAG YOUR SPECIAL DAYS

A trader who journals improves. It’s embedded right in the Trade Buddy software, downloadable from the same page that holds the secret link to the Chrome extension. For a full member it can replace a journaling subscription you might be paying 50 bucks a month for.

The dashboard gives you a P&L calendar, a 12-day cumulative P&L, and — most important — P&L by discipline. When you score a session A, how do you actually do? When you score a C or D? My goal is to never post a C or D, and I haven’t since starting this process.

• Performance by day of week: find which day you genuinely trade best.
• Day tags: tag OPEX, rollover, tests… and days like today — the day before non-farm payroll — so those conditions show up when you review.
• Trade tags: mark each trade as a Battle Plan or Core Strategy trade, by timeframe, long vs short, and track them all.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

Why is holding a runner often the best trade you can make?

A: Because you’re already in a profitable position with no new risk decision required. In ES futures, one or two trades a week tend to run 100-plus points, but you can’t know in advance which one it’ll be. By holding the runner and trailing your stop, you stay exposed to that outsized move. This week a Monday long went from about 80 points to nearly 150 points simply by being held.

How do you manage a runner in ES futures?

A: You ratchet a trailing stop higher and higher behind one or two protection layers, locking in gains as price advances. A more aggressive alternative is to keep the stop below the RTH (Regular Trading Hours) low. Your account type dictates how aggressive you can be — on a trailing-drawdown account you must give it less room than when trading your own cash.

What does “treat shorts like microwave trades and longs like oven trades” mean?

A: It’s a mental model for hold time and size. Longs get the slow, multi-day “oven” hold so the trade can fully cook. Shorts are the fast “microwave” — they move quickly and violently, so you take them small, bank the move, and get out rather than marrying them.

Why keep short positions small in ES futures?

A: When a short works it moves fast and aggressive, so even a small position produces an easy payday. There’s no need to carry size to profit, and small size keeps your risk contained if the market squeezes back against you. You can be small on a short and still do very, very well.

Why was the 7520 level called tricky, and why might 7513 be a better short?

A: 7520 is the exact level that launched Monday’s 100-point long, so it has a history of trapping traders — high polarity, capable of bouncing price hard either direction. 7513 sits back inside the range, and the upper part of a range favors shorts over longs, making it a cleaner, lower-risk short location.

What is cross-index confluence?

A: It’s using a second index to confirm a setup. ES tends to flow with NQ (Nasdaq futures), so shorting ES while NQ is set to bounce north is a tough, low-odds trade. But when NQ is also positioned to push price down at the same spot ES hits its short location, both charts agree — that multi-index agreement raises the probability and confidence of the trade.

How big should my stop be on a Strong Level trade?

A: Very small — just two or three points above the Strong Level. The idea is that price should touch the level and go immediately; if it doesn’t, you’re out cheaply. The cardinal rule is you never want to take a large loss, so a tight stop on a precise level keeps a wrong read from becoming costly.

Does every Battle Plan setup mean I should trade it?

A: No. The first question on any Battle Plan trade is “does this fit my trade plan?” Some traders never short ES, so a short setup simply isn’t for them — and the indicator even lets you turn off a level like Battle Plan 2️⃣ so you never see it. Trading only what fits your plan, with perfect risk management, matters more than taking every mapped level.

Why should I tag special days in my trading journal?

A: Tagging days like the day before non-farm payroll, OPEX, or contract rollover lets your journaling dashboard show how you actually perform under those specific conditions. Combined with grading each session’s discipline, it turns your journal into a feedback loop — you can see which day of the week and which conditions produce your best and worst results.

📅 Upcoming This Week

Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:

• Thursday, Thu Jul 2: AM Briefing · Live Stream