ES EMINI AM BRIEFING #785

NFP Friday — Know Your Number Before the Number Drops

Non-Farm Payroll is also known as “not for professionals” — and that phrase exists for a reason. It’s not that you can’t trade it. It’s that the risk math changes completely when a single data release can move the market 30 points in either direction in seconds. The question isn’t whether to trade. The question is: what does your trade plan say?

• Calculate Your Weekly P&L First: Before you open a chart, know exactly how many points you’re up for the week. That number is your ceiling. How much of it are you willing to risk today?
• The Example — 107 Points Up: Up 107 points on the week, with a personal floor of 100. That leaves 7 points available. One trade. One 7-point stop. That is the entire trade plan for today.
• Up Small? Stand Down: Up only 20 points for the week? No trade. None. Watch price action for the love of price action — not for the money. The market will be there Monday.
• Friday Rules Apply Too: NFP adds a layer on top of the standard Friday rules. Both should already be in your written trade plan before you sit down at the screen.

Last Night’s Trade — Core Strategy Short with the Three-Contract System

Last night was a clean example of how the three-contract system manages a winning trade — add to winners, set individual trailers, and let the market decide the exits. The bull-bear line was the anchor from entry to final take profit.

• Entry: Core strategy short entered with two contracts. Waited for price to drop below Battle Plan 3 before entering. The group was short together.
• The Back-and-Forth: Price didn’t drop immediately — there was back-and-forth before the move came. Patience was required.
• Target Decision at the Alert: When the drop arrived, the alert went out — take the 10-pointer if that’s your plan, or trail toward the bottom of the range for a potential 50-pointer. Members made their own call based on their own plan.
• Adding to the Position: Added a third contract to the existing two. Total: three contracts on a winning trade. That’s the rule — you add to winners, never to losers.
• Individual Trailers on Each Contract: Each contract got its own trailer at a different level. Staggered exits, not one stop for all three.
• The Bull-Bear Line Pulled Price Back: Price came right back up to the bull-bear line. The add-on contract exited at break even. Not a loss — a neutral add on a trade that was already profitable.
• Final Result: 27 points captured. $136 with micros. A good night the day before NFP.

This Week’s Scoreboard — Three Ways to Capture Points

Every week the scoreboard tracks three performance metrics. Each one reflects a different way members engage with ES futures daily trade setups. Here’s what this week looked like if you were participating across all three methods:

These numbers are conservative. The Zoom capture number also doesn’t count the trades the group stayed out of — setups that got flagged as bad entries. Those saved points never show up on the board, but they’re real.

Next Week’s Economic Calendar

Next week has three significant data releases. Build your trade plan around these dates now — not the morning they drop.

The One Actionable Level — Battle Plan 4 at 7510

The new AM Briefing format delivers one actionable item per session — something concrete you can act on whether you’re a full member or just getting a sample of the buffet at MicrosTrader.com. Today that level is Battle Plan 4 at approximately 7510.

• The Plan: Several members have already committed — the only trade they’ll take today is if price can get down to Battle Plan 4 at 7510 and give them the reversal pattern they’re looking for to get long.
• NFP Reaction: The initial NFP candle showed a weak reaction. No trade was taken on that candle — that’s not a setup, it’s speculation on a reaction.
• The Bull-Bear Line: Two days running, the bull-bear line has been exactly what it should be — the line you don’t short above and don’t long below during the RTH session. It has been the session anchor all week.
• No Setup at the Level? No Trade: If price doesn’t reach 7510, there is no trade today. That’s the plan. Not being in a trade is a position.

Membership Update — What Changed and How to Get Started

A few changes to the MicrosTrader.com membership structure — plus a tool inside Chart Buddy that every member who doesn’t yet have a written trade plan needs to use before next Tuesday.

• Monday Battle Plan No Longer Unlocked: The Monday night free unlock for non-members is ending. The Battle Plan is now member-only content.
• 7-Day Free Trial Available: A free trial still exists with instant access to two indicators: the Strong Levels indicator and the Battle Plan indicator. Request access after signing up.
• YouTube Channel Membership: A YouTube channel membership lets you watch the live Zoom stream on YouTube — a lower-commitment way to check out how the futures trading live room works before going full member.
• Pricing: Battle Plan membership — half an MES point per day. Full membership — one MES point per day.
• AM Briefing Stays: Not changing. May shift to one hour before market open instead of 20 minutes out — more prep time, more screen notes, better value per session.
• Foundations Course: Still free. Still the right first step for anyone new to ES/MES futures trading.

If you’re already a full member and your trade plan doesn’t cover NFP — open Chart Buddy, go to the Dashboard, and click the Trade Plan Builder. It walks you through every section. Next NFP, the decision is already made.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

What is Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and why is it called “not for professionals”?

A: Non-Farm Payroll is a monthly U.S. jobs report released on the first Friday of each month. It’s one of the highest-impact economic data releases for ES and MES futures markets — a surprise number can move the market 30 or more points in seconds. The phrase “not for professionals” captures the idea that the volatility is too unpredictable to trade with normal edge. Most professionals reduce or eliminate size on NFP day rather than increasing it.

How do I decide how much risk to take on NFP day?

A: Start with your weekly P&L. Know exactly how many points you’re up for the week, then decide in advance how much of that you’re willing to risk today. If you’re up 107 points and your personal floor is 100, you have 7 points to trade with — one trade, one 7-point stop. If you’re only up 20 points, consider no trade at all. The number you protect matters more than the trade you might take.

What is the three-contract system?

A: The three-contract system is Micros Trader’s core position sizing framework. You enter with three contracts (or a scaled equivalent using MES micros). The first contract exits at a defined take-profit target. The second exits at an extended target. The third contract — the runner — is trailed with a stop and allowed to run as far as the market will take it. This structure locks in profit on the first two exits while giving you exposure to a large move on the third.

What is the bull-bear line and how do you use it?

A: The bull-bear line is the key dividing level between bullish and bearish bias for the session. The rule is simple — don’t short above it and don’t long below it during RTH. When price is above the bull-bear line, bias is long. When it’s below, bias is short. Over the last two sessions it has been the trade’s anchor, with price repeatedly returning to it as a reference point for entries and exits.

What is the difference between the Battle Plan, Zoom session, and Core Strategy?

A: These are the three ways members make money in the group. The Battle Plan is a written daily trade plan published before each session — it contains 3 to 7 trade ideas, pre-mapped levels on your chart, and the Strong Levels indicator. The Zoom session is a live Monday through Friday trading room where members trade alongside each other using the Battle Plan plus real-time reasoning. The Core Strategy is the advanced three-contract bounce system for full members, focused on bouncing key levels during Regular Trading Hours using disciplined scalping rules.

What is the Trade Plan Builder in Chart Buddy and how do I access it?

A: Chart Buddy is a tool available to full members. Inside Chart Buddy, the Dashboard contains a Trade Plan Builder that walks you through every section of a complete trading plan — including how to handle high-volatility events like NFP, CPI, and PPI. Once you build your plan, those decisions are made in advance so you don’t have to think under pressure on the day of the release. To access: open Chart Buddy, go to the Dashboard, click Trade Plan Builder.

What is Battle Plan 4 and why is it the level to watch today?

A: Battle Plan levels (BP1 through BP5) are the tiered daily trade levels published in the Micros Trader Battle Plan each session. Today BP4 sits around 7510. On an NFP day when the open is too volatile for most entries, BP4 at 7510 represents a deeper pullback level where a reversal pattern would confirm a potential long entry. If price doesn’t reach that level, there is no trade — and that’s exactly how a disciplined trade plan works.

What changed about the Monday night Battle Plan unlock?

A: Previously, the Monday night Battle Plan was made available to non-members as a free sample. That is no longer happening. The Battle Plan is now exclusively for members. However, a 7-day free trial is still available — sign up and you get instant access to two indicators: the Strong Levels indicator and the Battle Plan indicator. You need to request indicator access separately once your trial is active.

What should I know about next week’s economic calendar?

A: Three events stand out. CPI (Consumer Price Index) is on Tuesday — the primary inflation read and the highest-impact release of the week, with a live Zoom session confirmed. Consumer Sentiment and Expectations are on Thursday. PPI (Producer Price Index) is also on Thursday — wholesale inflation data that can confirm or contradict Tuesday’s CPI number. Build your trade plan for each event before the day arrives.

MICROS TRADER BASICS

Our System: Three Ways We Make Money

The Micros Trader system is built around one discipline: we trade the same chart, draw the same levels, and take the same trades for the same reasons. Together We Trade Better is not just a phrase — it is the structure the entire system runs on.

Core Strategy is intra-day scalping at Bounce Levels… specific zones on the chart where institutions step in and defend price. That defense is what produces the bounce. Members enter with a limit order, manage with the Three Contract System, and keep a risk-free runner working for the larger move. For cash and retirement accounts, these intra-day scalps can develop into multi-day swing trades.

Live Zoom Trading runs Monday through Friday, going live about 20 minutes before the open through 11:00 AM CT. Members hear real-time reasoning on every setup… who controls, what the read is, and when to stand down. Trading live with the group builds the patience and discipline that solo trading cannot replicate. You stop guessing and start seeing.

The Daily Battle Plan maps three to seven pre-planned trade ideas directly onto your TradingView chart each evening via the Battle Plan Indicator. Combined with the Strong Levels Indicator, it identifies the highest-probability trade locations before the market opens. By the time RTH begins, every decision is already made.

Learn more about Micros Trader →