ES EMINI AM BRIEFING #769

The Day After CPI — Context Matters

Today is a special day on the calendar. It’s not just PPI day and Fed speech day… it’s the day after CPI. That context shapes how you approach price action. The market had a monster move yesterday — and those big-move days have a hangover. Short covering drove the rally. Strong fair value gapping candles reclaimed Strong Levels. The bulls took over.

• PPI + Fed Speeches: On the calendar today. Keep an eye on timing — these can create short bursts of volatility around their release windows.
• The Day After a Big Move: When ES does a 40–60 point pullback and then rips back with strong fair value gapping candles — that’s often the pullback. Don’t fight the reclaim of Strong Levels by hunting shorts into strength.
• Short Covering: Yesterday’s move higher was driven heavily by short covering. Once you see that kind of momentum and a reclaim, the right move is to recognize the shift — not look for the reversal.

Battle Plan 305 Trade Review — Stolen Bounce Power

Yesterday’s S&P 500 futures pre-market analysis mapped out the session clearly. The overnight short setup hit the outsized target down near 7350 (made it to the eyeballs). Then from the open, Battle Plan trades offered long entries that ran beautifully. Here’s the full breakdown.

• Overnight Short: Mapped at the close — the target was 7350. Didn’t quite get there, but made it to the eyeballs. Clean setup.
• Battle Plan 1️⃣: Offered a long entry and made it to target. Called out as THE level of the week — and it delivered. Available to members and non-members alike.
• Battle Plan 2️⃣: A quick long with a recommendation to peel off at 10 points, keep a single runner. The runner got out. Took your 10/10… George urged you to call it the day. You made your money. Done.
• Battle Plan 3️⃣ & 4️⃣: Could have offered long entries for traders in those zones. Battle Plan 4️⃣ didn’t quite hit — disappointing. But 3️⃣ and 2️⃣ gave the opportunity to get long and ride the entire move up.
• Stolen Bounce Power: Battle Plan 3️⃣ got within 1–2 points of the level and bounced 20 points. That is “stolen bounce power.” The level didn’t fully set — and the next time price came back to that zone, the entry was much riskier. The bounce power had already been spent.
• Failed Entry / Break Even: At that reclaimed level — a two to three point stop was the play. We take break evens. We take small losses. The concept was the lesson, not the result.

What Actually Builds Consistency

George made a post last night in the Discord group about consistency — and James Paul’s reply was so good it became a featured share. The message is worth reading slowly. This is the heart of futures trading psychology and the foundation of everything we do in this room.

“Consistency isn’t built on days the market hands you 20 points easily on your first trade. Those are nice. We love them. But that doesn’t build consistency. That doesn’t build discipline. Consistency is built when you leveraged properly when you wanted to go big. When you waited and waited for your setup that never formed. When you resisted the urge to do what you used to do that used to hurt you. When you stuck to your plan. When you got bored. This builds consistency. This builds discipline. This is where your character as a trader is developed. Process over profit every single day.”

James Paul called it his daily reminder. The JPEG is in the Discord group — download it, drop it on your chart if you want it in front of you every session.

• How to Put It On Your Chart: Open your Pre-Flight indicator, scroll to Notes, add the text, pick your color and position. Top center works well. Or drop the JPEG directly onto your chart and move it where you want it.
• Process Over Profit: Not a slogan. A daily operating principle. The profit follows the process — not the other way around.

Jake’s Letter — A Trader’s Journey

Jake is a relatively new member to the group, and he wrote a letter that George shared this morning. It’s a real account of the habits that hurt traders and how structured membership in a community changes the game. This is what Together We Trade Better actually looks like.

• The Background: Jake grew up around markets — his dad was a stockbroker at Smith Barney in the 90s. He traded early on but developed bad habits: emotional trading, predictive trading, and moving stop losses to force trades to work.
• The Turning Point: Jake came across this channel while already working with Adam Mancini’s strategy. But he needed a deeper fix — participating in a group to reset how he thinks and acts as a trader.
• What Changed After Joining:
  • Fixed emotional trading
  • Stopped forcing trades — there is always another high probability setup around the corner
  • Stopped predictive trading
  • Started waiting patiently for price to enter areas he identified as supportive
• Jake’s Hard Rule: If he makes one emotional or off-plan trade — he stops trading for the day. One. That’s it. It stops the accumulation of emotion before it compounds.
• The Journal Standard: Jake journals every trade and asks: could I defend this entry in front of a panel of traders from this group? If you can’t put up a defense, you shouldn’t have taken the trade.

Trading One Direction — Finding Your Personal Edge

This is a concept worth sitting with. George shared something personal today — and James Paul echoed it. There may be a version of you that is a dramatically better trader when you simplify your bias. For futures trading discipline, this is worth testing.

• George’s Honest Assessment: He is a great trader in the morning. In the afternoon with the DOM open — he’s a “disgusting trader.” Bored. Impulsive. He knows his weakness and he named it.
• Longs Only: When focused exclusively on longs — George does better. ES is an upward-moving instrument over time. Sitting down without a pre-mapped battle plan trade and looking for both longs and shorts in real time is much harder.
• Battle Plan Trades Are Different: If a short is pre-mapped in the Battle Plan — that’s fine. It was planned. It has a defined entry, target, and stop. That’s not the same as sitting at the chart and deciding to short on the fly.
• Short-Focused Traders: Some members post almost exclusively shorts — and they do well. If that is your edge… that is your edge. Use it.
• 90% of Trades Are Longs: That is the historical breakdown in this community. Keep that in your mental model.
• New Traders Struggling with Longs: If you learned to trade during a down market (like November through March), seeing longs is hard. The Battle Plan is designed to retrain your eye. Study it — don’t just load the indicator and move on.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

What is “Stolen Bounce Power” in ES futures trading?

A: Stolen Bounce Power refers to what happens when price comes within 1–2 points of a Battle Plan level but doesn’t fully touch it — then bounces hard anyway. The bounce that was “reserved” for that level has been stolen by the near-miss. The next time price approaches that zone, the level is no longer fresh. It carries significantly more risk than a clean, untested level. Reduce size or pass on the trade entirely.

What does “the day after CPI” mean for futures traders?

A: CPI (Consumer Price Index) is a major economic release that typically causes outsized market moves. The day after CPI tends to feature continuation or digestion of that move — often with short covering if the prior session was a strong rally. It’s important context for interpreting price action. Today also has PPI and Fed speeches on the calendar, adding another layer of potential volatility.

How does the three-contract system work for taking profits in MES micro futures?

A: Micros Trader’s three-contract system typically involves taking profits in layers. In today’s session, the Battle Plan 2️⃣ trade illustrated it: peel off at 10 points on the first contract, 10 points on the second, and hold a single runner. Once you’ve captured your planned profit — especially on a CPI follow-through day — the guidance is to call it done. Green Over Greed applies here directly.

What is the right response when ES reclaims a Strong Level with big candles?

A: When ES reclaims a Strong Level with a series of strong fair value gapping candles — that is a directional signal. The bulls have taken control. Looking for a short in that environment is typically the wrong move. Recognize short covering for what it is, respect the reclaim, and either look for long opportunities or stand aside. Don’t fight the tape.

How should a trader use a journal to improve their discipline?

A: The most effective journaling standard discussed today is the “council defense” — before or after every trade, ask yourself: could I defend this entry and reasoning in front of a group of experienced traders? If the answer is no, the trade was impulsive. Log trade entries with the setup, the why, and the outcome. Track emotional or off-plan trades separately so you can identify patterns that are costing you money.

What is the one-emotional-trade rule?

A: If you make one emotional, impulsive, or off-plan trade — you stop trading for the day. That’s the rule Jake shared in his letter. The logic is that one mistake is recoverable. But emotion compounds. The second emotional trade is worse than the first, and the third worse than that. Cutting it at one breaks the accumulation cycle before real damage happens.

Should I focus on longs only or trade both directions in ES futures?

A: It depends on your personal edge. Roughly 90% of Micros Trader’s setups are long-focused, since ES is an upward-moving instrument over time. Many traders — including George — report better results when focused on longs only. If you identify as a better trader in one direction, lean into that. Pre-mapped Battle Plan shorts are different — those are planned, defined entries, not real-time directional decisions.

What is the Pre-Flight indicator and how can I use it for mindset reminders?

A: The Pre-Flight indicator is a chart tool that includes a Notes section where you can type any text directly onto your chart. You can customize the background color, font, and position (top center, top left, etc.). This lets you pin a trading rule, a mindset reminder, or a quote directly on your chart so it’s visible every session. Alternatively, you can drop a JPEG image onto your chart and position it wherever you want.

What is “short covering” and why does it matter for reading ES price action?

A: Short covering is when traders who are short (betting the market goes down) buy back their positions, typically because price is moving against them. When a lot of short covering happens at once — especially after a news event like CPI — it can produce sharp, fast rallies that look bullish but are partly mechanical. The key insight: short covering rallies that reclaim Strong Levels with strong candles should be respected, not faded. The sellers are being forced out, which adds fuel to the move.