ES EMINI AM BRIEFING #761

Today’s Catalyst Stack — Why This Is a Level 10 Stand Down Day

FOMC days are not ordinary trading sessions. This Wednesday stacked up as one of the highest-risk setups of the quarter — and the catalysts don’t stop when the closing bell rings.

• FOMC Decision & Press Conference (Wednesday Afternoon): The Fed announcement plus the post-announcement conference regularly generates outsized moves in both directions. The afternoon session on FOMC days has a well-earned reputation for destroying good mornings.
• Major Tech Earnings After Close (Wednesday): George flagged that the earnings move could match or exceed the FOMC move. Holding unprotected runners into earnings is a high-stakes gamble.
• PCE, GDP & Chicago PMI (Thursday): The data train doesn’t stop. Back-to-back high-volatility sessions require an elevated level of caution across the full week.
• Geopolitical Wildcard: Iran headlines were flagged as a potential market character changer. These events can override technical levels without warning.

Battle Plan 5 Trade Execution — Managing a Live Short into the Open

George entered the session already in a live overnight short from Battle Plan 5, taken at 84 the prior evening. The entry triggered when price grabbed the RTH high and slammed back in — exactly the scenario the Battle Plan had mapped. Here is how the trade was managed start to finish.

• Entry: Short at 84 — Battle Plan 5 level, taken the night before from a pre-mapped setup.
• Two Contracts: George sized into two contracts, consistent with the three-contract system approach — scale out at defined targets, trail the runner.
• Contract 1 — Closed at 5 Points: First profit target hit. One contract closed, locking a guaranteed winner and removing psychological pressure.
• Contract 2 — Stop to Breakeven Minus 5: After taking the first profit, the runner’s stop was moved to breakeven minus 5 — protecting against a full loss while giving the trade room to develop overnight.
• Overnight Survival: Price battled the previous day’s opening for hours in the overnight session. The runner survived it.
• Locking 20 Points on RTH Open: George moved his stop to lock a 20-point profit on the runner. FOMC day, good morning already banked — that’s enough.

Reading the Range — Strong Levels, POC, and Distribution

The ES has been coiling in a defined multi-day range. Understanding where price sits within that range — and what each key reference level means — is the backbone of every Battle Plan trade and every ES futures pre-market analysis session.

• Strong Level (Key Resistance): A level tested repeatedly throughout the prior RTH session and held again this morning. Each test that holds adds conviction — but also beats the level up, increasing the probability of an eventual break. George’s read: if price lost this level, the target was the 70–72 range below.
• Previous Day Opening: Always on the chart. Especially relevant in the overnight session — price battled it for hours. On the RTH open, a clean bounce off the opening acted as a protection layer for George’s short.
• VWAP at 76: The Volume Weighted Average Price is the institutional benchmark. George used VWAP as a context level — once he was above it with profits locked, there was no reason to give anything back.
• Point of Control (POC) at 61: The price where the most volume has traded across the entire multi-day range. This is the magnet at the center of the range — price gravitates back to it repeatedly.
• Value Area High: The upper boundary of the zone where 70% of volume has traded. Price pushed into this area late in the session, flagging it as a potential exhaustion zone for longs.
• Target Range — 70 to 72: The bottom of the range and the location of Battle Plan 1, the next pre-mapped long setup.

Positional Awareness — Why Where You Short Is Everything

George doesn’t short often. Shorts account for fewer than 10% of all his personal trades — because bulls are in control roughly 90% of the time. But when he does short, position within the range is the deciding factor. This session illustrated that principle at every stage.

• The Red Zone: The upper portion of the established range. This is where shorts carry a positional edge — you are selling at relative highs within the range, with multiple potential targets below and a well-defined wrong-side line above.
• Never Short the Bottom: Shorting at the bottom of the range when bulls control is the worst possible position. You are fighting the trend from a structurally disadvantaged location with nowhere logical for price to go in your favor.
• Pre-Mapped, Not Improvised: Battle Plan 5’s short was written up the night before. The level, the trigger, and the targets were all defined before the session opened. George did not improvise the entry in real time.
• Bulls Control Means Counter Trades Are Small: “Bulls control. Shorts are counter. Small, if at all.” When you take the counter-trend short, size down. This is the rule every time.

When price laddered back up in the RTH session, George’s reaction was clean: “We’re in the red part of the range. Difficult place to look for a long.” He did not chase. He did not improvise. He waited for the next Battle Plan level.

Chart Journaling with ChartBuddy — Object Tree Folders and the Screenshot Habit

George demoed a new ChartBuddy feature live: the object tree day-of-week folder system. When enabled, every drawing added to TradingView is automatically sorted into a folder by day of the week — a built-in chart journal with zero extra steps required.

• How to Enable: In TradingView, open More Tools → Object Tree → Cleanup. Three options: Off, Day of the Week, or a custom folder. Selecting Day of the Week creates Monday through Friday folders automatically as you draw.
• The Power of Weekly Review: At the end of the week, click Monday’s folder and see every drawing, annotation, and note from that session. Where did you enter? Where was your stop? What did the structure look like at the trigger?
• Screenshot to Lock It In: TradingView’s screenshot button saves the annotated chart to your folder. Mark up the entry, add notes, screenshot. Even without a written journal, this process forces meaningful post-session analysis.
• Battle Plan Alerts via ChartBuddy: The alert button inside ChartBuddy automatically sets TradingView alerts at all active Battle Plan levels with one click — no manual level entry required. George resolved a mid-session connection issue by relaunching TradingView directly from ChartBuddy.

FOMC Day Psychology — Protecting Your Morning and Your Account

George’s personal goal for the week, stated in his weekend journal entry: another A in discipline. Extraordinary patience. FOMC day is the ultimate test of that goal — and he executed it cleanly from the overnight session through the RTH close.

• The Grade Is Discipline, Not the P&L: George framed the week’s goal around discipline first. The trade result is secondary. Executing your plan without deviation — that’s what compounds over time.
• Frustration Is the Exit Signal: “If you can feel the accumulation of frustration, just remove yourself. This is not a day to trade.” FOMC afternoons are infamous for trapping traders who push after a good morning.
• Track Special Days: If you don’t know how you perform on FOMC days, you have no business trading one. Track your P&L by session type — FOMC, OPEX, CPI mornings, four-day weekends. The data will tell you the truth about your edge on each day type.
• Your Trade Plan Must Address FOMC: Can you trade the morning only? Can you watch the afternoon for the love of price action without placing orders? Do you sit out the entire day? Decide before the day arrives — not in the heat of a move.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

What is Battle Plan 5 and how does it generate a short entry?

A: Battle Plan 5 is one of the tiered trade setups published each evening in the MicrosTrader.com Battle Plan. Each Battle Plan level is pre-mapped at a specific price with a defined entry trigger, stop, and target. Battle Plan 5’s short was triggered when price grabbed the RTH high and slammed back inside — a rejection at a pre-mapped resistance level that George had identified the night before. The entry was not improvised in real time; it was planned before the session opened.

Why does George treat shorts like microwave trades?

A: In a market where bulls are in control most of the time, short trades are counter-trend. Counter-trend trades need to pay quickly — they don’t get the same patience as a trend-following long. If a short doesn’t move in your favor within a reasonable time, the probability shifts against you. George’s rule: get in, get your profit, get out. Don’t hold a short hoping for a trend change when the dominant trend is bullish.

What does it mean when George says “bulls are in control 90% of the time”?

A: Over the long run, equity futures trend upward. That means the highest-probability trades are longs — buying pullbacks to support in an uptrend. Shorts are possible and can be profitable, but they are counter-trend and carry lower base-rate probability. George’s stat — fewer than 10% of his personal trades are shorts — reflects this reality. It doesn’t mean you never short; it means you short carefully, from a good position, with tighter management.

What is the Point of Control (POC) and why does it matter?

A: The Point of Control is the price level where the most volume has traded over a given period — in this case, the entire multi-day range. It represents the price both buyers and sellers have most agreed on. Price tends to return to the POC repeatedly because it represents the center of gravity for the range. George identified the POC at 61 for this range. When price is at the extremes of the range and trading volume thins out, the POC acts as a magnet pulling price back toward the middle.

What is the previous day opening and why is it used as a protection layer?

A: The previous day opening is the price where the prior session’s Regular Trading Hours began. It is a key reference level because institutional traders use it to evaluate whether the market is accepting or rejecting value from the prior session. When price holds above the previous day opening, it signals bullish continuation. When it breaks below, it opens the door for bearish follow-through. George uses it as a “protection layer” for short trades — if price can’t sustain below it, the short is in trouble. A clean bounce off the opening on the RTH open confirmed that the level was still acting as support.

What does positional trading mean and why shouldn’t you short the bottom of a range?

A: Positional trading means knowing where you are in the chart’s overall structure before placing any trade. At the bottom of a range in a bull-controlled market, the highest-probability trade is a long — price is at a relative low with room to move upward. Shorting at that location means you are fighting both the dominant trend and the structure. Even if a setup looks clean, the odds are stacked against you because you have no room to the downside before hitting a strong support zone, and the bulls will defend aggressively.

How should a trader approach FOMC days?

A: FOMC days require a pre-written rule in your trade plan — not a real-time decision. The most common approaches: trade the morning session only and step away before the announcement; sit out entirely if your track record on FOMC days is poor; or watch the afternoon for educational purposes without placing orders. George’s guidance is to track your performance on special days (FOMC, OPEX, CPI, GDP) in your journal and let the data guide your rules. A good morning gain on FOMC is a complete result — do not risk it in the afternoon.

What is the ChartBuddy object tree folder system and how does it help with journaling?

A: The ChartBuddy object tree feature automatically sorts every TradingView drawing into a folder by day of the week. When you enable it under More Tools → Object Tree → Cleanup and select Day of the Week, a new folder (Monday, Tuesday, etc.) is created automatically each session. Every line, box, and annotation you draw goes into that day’s folder. At the end of the week, you can click each day’s folder and review exactly what you drew during the session — your entries, stops, take profit levels, and notes. Combined with TradingView’s screenshot function, it creates a lightweight but powerful chart journal with no extra effort required.

What is a fair value gap (FVG) and what does it signal?

A: A fair value gap is a price imbalance created when two non-overlapping candles leave a gap between them — meaning price moved through that zone so quickly that no meaningful two-sided trading occurred. These gaps often act as magnets because the market tends to return to areas of imbalance to establish fair value. George flagged a fair value gap forming during the late RTH session as bulls pushed price back to the upper distribution — a caution flag for anyone thinking about initiating new longs at that level.