AM Briefing #810: The First Fresh-Level Trade Is The Best One

AM BRIEFING

ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS

THE TIP OF THE DAY — FRESH LEVELS WIN

The tip is simple and it changes how you rank your opportunities. The highest probability version of any Battle Plan trade idea is the first time it is presented… with fresh levels. Battle Plan 2 on Sunday night offered the best entry and ran the most. Battle Plan 3 on its first look ran the most. The market pays best on the first touch.

Can you take the second or third look? Yes… but only under one condition.

• Amazing location: The second or third look has to be in a genuinely amazing trade location.
• In the direction of control: It must line up with who controls the tape. Otherwise, George would rather wait for a fresh Battle Plan idea with fresh levels.

TRACK THE SECOND AND THIRD LOOKS

If you want to know whether the second and third looks are worth trading for YOU, don’t guess… measure it. Create a new tag inside the Trade Buddy journaling software that comes with your full membership. Tag it “Battle Plan 2” or “Battle Plan 3” so you can isolate the second-look and third-look entries in your own numbers.

Over time your journal tells you the truth about whether re-trading the same level pays. Your data… your edge.

THREE TRADES, AGGRESSIVE MAPPING, AND STRONG LEVELS

It is rare to get three different Battle Plan trades activate inside a 23-hour span. This week did… two longs and one short, and all three did very well. ‘Tis the season of double and triple taps… an unusual price action compared to the rest of the year.

The short carried an aggressive mapping. Why aggressive? Because the target was mapped THROUGH two Strong Levels. Typically a move only runs to one Strong Level… the longs on the board were each mapped to a single Strong Level, but this short went into and through the expected range. The outside target sat at 7520… the most important level for two or three weeks now.

What are Strong Levels? They are the levels George deems most important for the week, published every Sunday. Turn the indicator on and they act like the paddles on a pinball machine… the levels price ping-pongs between and gets pushed around by. They aid your entries and exits, and this week they were once again the most important levels on the chart.

LOSS AND RECLAIM OF A STRONG RANGE = AN ENTRY

Battle Plan 3 was a long back up through the next Strong Range below… a location where you could hold a lotto runner. Here is the key mechanic: the loss and the reclaim of any Strong Range constitutes an entry. Price traded down into the expected range, lost the Strong Range, then reclaimed it back above… and that reclaim was the entry, running toward the next Strong Level.

If you were in at that time, roughly a 40-point move was presented… a 44-pointer on the map. Not bad for a Battle Plan that cost about half an MES point of risk. The deeper part of the plan is the one George prefers, because it takes back 7520, pushes the next range, and can potentially catapult price with the Bulls defending heavily.

DON’T RUSH THE FAIR VALUE GAP CANDLES

When you start getting fair value gapping candles going your way, don’t be so quick to take the profit. Notice it is happening… stay back… let the thing develop with the Three-Contract System on that entry. This was the clean, normal ES price action George looks for, and it painted beautifully.

A Fair Value Gap is the imbalance zone between two non-overlapping candles. When they stack in your direction one after another, that is momentum telling you the move has room. Call your initial contracts off into strength, then let the runner work. If you had been live, initial contracts come off around 30… you are up 60… and a lotto runner rides even if it dips to a new low at minus 10, because the initials already paid.

MISSED IT WHILE YOU SLEPT? REHEARSE IT

You can’t be in every trade… neither can George. If you were asleep at 11 and the setup came and went, that is fine. Go back and mentally trade it. Look at the Battle Plan, look at the Battle Plan notes, and rehearse the entry as if you took it. Ask where you would have entered, where the fair value gap candles appeared, and what you would have captured.

That mental rehearsal is how the system builds the trader… fewer, higher quality, pre-planned, well-thought-out trades. You map where you want to go long, you map where you want to go short, and you use Core Strategy to enter when price gets there… practicing perfect patience.

SOME DAYS THERE IS NOTHING TO DO

With CPI and Warsh testimony at the bottom of the hour, the honest answer to “what is there to do?” was nothing. And that is the point. Some days it is nothing… and that is as valuable as if there were something. In fact, George would say it is MORE valuable.

He is not trying to create trades that don’t exist. Waiting is the trade. Letting price jump right over your stop through a CPI print is a real risk, especially in a cash account… so if the map says stand down, you stand down.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

What is the highest probability version of a Battle Plan trade?

A: The first time the trade idea is presented with fresh levels. On the Micros Trader Battle Plan, the first touch of a fresh level historically offers the best entry and the biggest run. Second and third looks can still work, but the first fresh-level presentation is the A+ opportunity.

When should I trade a Battle Plan level on the second or third look?

A: Only when it is in a genuinely amazing trade location AND in the direction of control. If those two conditions aren’t both met, it is better to wait for a fresh Battle Plan idea with fresh levels rather than force a re-trade.

What are Strong Levels in the Micros Trader system?

A: Strong Levels are the levels George deems most important for the week, published every Sunday. Turn the indicator on and they act like the paddles of a pinball machine, pushing price around and helping you time entries and exits. They are the key structural levels to keep on your chart.

What is aggressive mapping on the Battle Plan?

A: Aggressive mapping is when a trade’s target is mapped through two Strong Levels instead of stopping at one. A typical move runs to one Strong Level. When the plan projects the price into and through the expected range and past a second Strong Level, that is an aggressive map.

How does a loss and reclaim of a Strong Range create an entry?

A: When price loses a Strong Range and then reclaims it back above, that reclaim is the entry signal on the Micros Trader system. In this week’s Battle Plan 3, price dropped into the expected range, lost the Strong Range, reclaimed it, and ran roughly 40 points toward the next Strong Level for about half an MES point of risk.

What is a Fair Value Gap and why does it matter to a runner?

A: A Fair Value Gap is the imbalance zone between two non-overlapping candles. When fair value gapping candles stack in your direction, that is momentum signaling room to run… so instead of grabbing 10 or 20 points, let the Three-Contract System develop and give your lotto runner a chance at a big move.

How does the Three-Contract System manage a runner?

A: You take initial contracts off into strength to bank profit, then hold a lotto runner for a potential larger move. Once your initials are paid, the runner can dip to a new low and you care less, because the trade is already green. It is how Micros Trader manages risk first while staying open to a big win.

Should I trade through a CPI release?

A: Only if you have a mapped plan and accept the risk. Around a CPI print price can jump right over your stop, which is especially dangerous in a cash account. If the plan says there is nothing clean to do, standing down is the trade.

What should I do if I miss a setup while I’m asleep?

A: Mentally trade it after the fact. Pull up the Battle Plan and its notes, find where you would have entered, and rehearse the outcome as if you took it. That mental rehearsal builds trading discipline and prepares you to execute the next live opportunity.

📅 Upcoming This Week

Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:

• Wednesday, Wed Jul 15: AM Briefing · Live Stream
• Thursday, Thu Jul 16: AM Briefing · Live Stream
• Friday, Fri Jul 17: AM Briefing · Live Stream