Moderate Your Expectations In A Dull Week | AM Briefing #834

AM BRIEFING

ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS

THE TIP OF THE DAY: MODERATE YOUR EXPECTATIONS

We are at all time highs with a small, roughly 80-point expected range. It is August. It is summer trading. There are no news drivers on tap. OPEX is Friday and the rest of the week is quiet. This could be the most boring week of the entire summer.

That is not a complaint… it is a plan. When the tape is thin, you tighten up. Here is how George framed the week:

• Pick your spots. Only the levels you actually care about deserve an order.
• Wait for price to get there. Do not chase the middle. Let price come to your level.
• Set your alerts. If you have to, walk away and let the alert bring you back.
• Come back and trade one price. One level you are genuinely interested in, not a dozen maybes.

BATTLE PLAN BASICS FOR NEW TRADERS

For anyone new here, the Battle Plan is one of the ways we make our money. Every week George drafts out where we should be looking to go long, where we should be looking to go short, plus notes, narratives, where to add and where to get out. It is a daily written trade plan… the thing everyone knows they should have and most traders never build.

Alongside it come the Strong Levels, the levels George considers the most important. They publish Sunday, and the Battle Plan publishes Sunday through Thursday. Both are mapped directly onto your trading chart, so you know exactly where you are interested in engaging price.

The mechanics are simple. Wait for price to drop into the area you want to go long and place your order. Take profit just before the next Strong Level, because that is typically where price bounces back. Then move your stop to break even, or leave it slightly negative so you can absorb a double tap.

THE LEVELS THAT MATTER TODAY

The chart is built around a few reference points you want marked out yourself. Early week levels earn their weight depending on how price revisits them.

▶ Watch this moment in the AM Briefing

▶ Watch this moment in the AM Briefing

• Sunday opening: A critical level. We just retested it. If you got short into the Sunday opening, you had better expect a reaction there… and we got a beautiful bounce right off that line.
• Friday close: Mark it out. Early-week price loves to reference where Friday finished.
• The 97 area: Careful up here. George flagged this zone last week. Range rules apply, and if price drops underneath it there is room for a rotation back lower.

The through-line is the same one George has repeated for a long time. Longs continue to work out. That is the typical nature of ES, and it is why he warns against knife-catching shorts into an uptrend.

WHEN THE CANDLE DOESN’T MAKE SENSE

We gapped up this morning. George was personally hoping for a gap down per the Battle Plan 1️⃣ notes, but the market had other ideas. Then came an irrational candle, roughly 12 points down, snapping right back to the Sunday opening.

That kind of movement makes George leery. When a candle does not make sense, maybe there was a tweet or a news event nobody flagged yet, you do not force it. You let the thing settle down before you engage. But notice what still worked: price came back to the Sunday opening, held, and bounced. Trading live, that is where George would drop down in timeframes to hunt a long, because bulls control.

WE TRADE EDGES, NOT THE MUDDY MIDDLE

Run the cross-market check and we are not all on the same train. No sir re Bob. NQ has an upward slanting VWAP and took out its previous day high, trying to ladder up. The Dow is saying no thank you, no thank you, no thank you. And ES is basically stuck at previous day halfback.

▶ Watch this moment in the AM Briefing

If you love trading the middle of the range, you love where price is right now. But that is not our game. We trade edges, and we train edges very well. Sitting at previous day halfback with the indices out of sync is exactly the muddy middle George tells you to skip. No edge, no trade… and that is a decision, not a failure.

SLOW TAPE IS TRAINING TIME: THREE NEW VIDEOS

A boring week is a building week. George published three videos worth your time when the market is not paying:

• Trader homework upgrades: New features across the end-of-day chart software, the simulator, and the Battle Plan simulator. Steal these tools.
• TradingView step-by-step: A full setup tutorial for brand-new TradingView users, showing exactly how to configure your chart to trade the Battle Plan. It is now built into the Foundations course.
• Trader Basics: What Is The Initial Balance: The first video in a new beginner series, explaining the Initial Balance, the first hour’s range in RTH.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

Why should I moderate my expectations at all time highs in August?

A: Because a small expected range, summer conditions, no news drivers, and an OPEX Friday all shrink the opportunity. When there is little fuel, forcing trades in the middle just bleeds your account. You tighten up, pick your best spots, and wait for price to come to a level you actually care about.

What is the Battle Plan and how does it work?

A: The Battle Plan is a daily written ES trade plan George drafts each week. It marks where to go long, where to go short, plus notes on where to add and where to get out. It publishes Sunday through Thursday and is mapped directly onto your trading chart so you know exactly where to engage price.

What are Strong Levels?

A: Strong Levels are the levels George considers the most important each week. They publish on Sunday and are mapped on your chart. You take profit just before the next Strong Level because that is typically where price bounces back, which makes them natural targets and reaction zones.

Why is the Sunday opening such an important level?

A: The Sunday opening is a critical early-week reference. If price retests it you should expect a reaction there. Today price came back to the Sunday opening and bounced clean off the line, which is exactly the kind of mapped-level reaction you want to trade rather than chasing.

What does “bulls control, shorts are counter, small if at all” mean?

A: It means the dominant trend is up, so longs are the primary trade and shorts are the counter-trend, lower-probability play. If you short at all, you keep the size small. It is a reminder not to knife-catch shorts into an uptrend that has worked for months.

What does it mean to trade edges instead of the muddy middle?

A: Edges are the extremes of a range where price is likely to react, and they carry the cleanest risk and reward. The muddy middle, like sitting at previous day halfback, is directionless and low-conviction. Micros Trader trades edges and skips the middle, especially when the indices are out of sync.

How should I react to an irrational candle I can’t explain?

A: Get leery and let it settle. A sudden move that does not make sense may be driven by news or a tweet you have not seen yet. Rather than react to the violent candle, wait for a clean reaction at a level you have mapped, like a bounce off the Sunday opening, before you engage.

What is the Initial Balance in ES futures?

A: The Initial Balance, or IB, is the range of the first hour of Regular Trading Hours, from 9:30 to 10:30 AM ET. It frames the day’s early auction and acts as a key reference for breakouts and reversions. George covers it in his new Trader Basics video series.

How does OPEX affect the trading week?

A: OPEX, or options expiration, can pin price and change behavior into Friday. In an otherwise quiet summer week it is one of the few scheduled events on the calendar, which is another reason to moderate expectations and be selective earlier in the week.

📅 Upcoming This Week

Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:

• Tuesday, Tue Aug 18: AM Briefing · Live Stream
• Wednesday, Wed Aug 19: AM Briefing · Live Stream
• Thursday, Thu Aug 20: AM Briefing · Live Stream
• Friday, Fri Aug 21: AM Briefing · Live Stream