Play Perfect Chess And Hold The Runner — AM Briefing #806

AM BRIEFING

ES CHART | KEY LEVELS | SETUPS

THE FRESH HAND — WAIT FOR YOUR LOCATION

Yesterday was the perfect example. You looked at price and didn’t like it. No big deal. In the Battle Plan 1 and 2 notes it said it plainly… if you don’t want to trade this location, wait until price gets to a different one. Every day, every session, the market deals a fresh hand.

You don’t chase price you dislike. You let it come to you. The Battle Plan is published the night before for exactly this reason… you get to pre-plan what you want to do, sit on your hands, and only engage when price arrives at a level you mapped.

PERFECT CHESS — HOLDING THE RUNNER LEVEL TO LEVEL

Both shorts running this week were mapped Monday night. The first triggered Monday. The second came last night. That is where lotto runners can really pay. Playing perfect chess means you get short from the mapped level, take your first ladder, and if you kept a lotto runner… you move your chess piece from level to level as price works down.

You move the piece to the next Strong Level. Then the next. Then you catch the big vomit and move it again… all the way down toward the expected range, where the 100-pointer comes into play. That is the exit you mapped in advance. Price typically travels 5 to 7 Strong Levels on a strong move… and we watch for exactly that.

• First ladder: Your initial short from the mapped Battle Plan level.
• Second ladder: Add at the next mapped location as price confirms your direction.
• Runner: Hold a lotto runner and move your stop with price, piece by piece, toward the expected range.
• Expected range: The mapped destination… a great place to book the 100-pointer.

STRONG LEVELS DEFEND UNTIL THE NEWS BREAKS THEM

Watch how the Strong Levels behaved. Two mapped levels played out clean. One level defended, defended, defended, defended… until the right news event showed up. Then you got the vomit. Iran news was heating up overnight, and the Battle Plan warned that Iran news can move the market at a moment’s notice.

That is the pattern you have to be cognizant of. A level holds and holds and holds. Then a 20-point candle drops out of nowhere… blood on the charts, 12-plus point candles stacking. That is the news catalyst breaking the defense.

DON’T INITIATE A FRESH SHORT AFTER THE MOVE IS DONE

Here is where traders get hurt. You see the big vomit overnight and think… I’ve got to get short NOW. But did we already have the big vomit? Yesterday’s Battle Plan already moved over 100 points. We already made it to the expected range for the week. Now we’re laddering back up.

So would George initiate a NEW short after that? Personally… no. Could we go back down? Yes. Would he welcome it? Sure… the short covering is always the fun trade. But hunting a fresh short after the move already happened is chasing. Be careful initiating shorts when the meat of the move is behind you.

YOUR TRADE PLAN OUTRANKS THE BATTLE PLAN

George rarely holds a short overnight. He has to be up over 100 points to even consider it… otherwise it is not an option for him. Why? Because that is what his trade plan says. And your trade plan is MORE important than his Battle Plan.

Same logic on adds. He wants a minimum of 20 points of profit before adding to a trade. And if you’re short, already green, and price offers a turnaround long… ask yourself the real question. Do you NEED another trade? Or do you just stay in your winning trade? Stay in the winner. When price bumps its head against a Strong Level and pulls back before charging again, THAT can be a clean add… once you’re already 20-plus points green.

TODAY’S SETUP — FOMC MINUTES AND THE LADDER BACK

We’re all under previous day lows, back to battling VWAP, and NQ is battling its previous day low too. Most important read… we’re under the Bull Bear Line and back to touching it. We’ve already run the 5-to-7 Strong Level move, so the big directional leg is likely behind us.

FOMC Minutes drop this afternoon. Put it on your chart… a simple red vertical line works, and the Trade Buddy indicator will remind you it’s coming. The Battle Plan indicator was updated this morning with additional trades if price gets under the expected range… look for the “part two” labels if you’re a member. Battle Plan 4 was the reclaim-and-long off the Strong Range once price got back above the level. We made it to the expected range for the week… now we’re laddering back up. Be careful initiating shorts.

COMMON QUESTIONS FOR ES FUTURES TRADERS

What does “the market deals a fresh hand” mean in the ES futures morning briefing?

A: It means every session gives you a new set of prices and setups. If you don’t like where ES is trading right now, you don’t have to force a trade… you wait for price to travel to one of the mapped levels you actually want, because a fresh opportunity comes each session.

What is playing “perfect chess” in the MES micro futures trade plan?

A: Perfect chess is entering a short (or long) at a mapped Battle Plan level, laddering in at the next mapped level, and holding a lotto runner while moving your stop from Strong Level to Strong Level. You walk the pre-mapped board piece by piece toward the expected range instead of guessing.

What is a lotto runner?

A: A lotto runner is a speculative, low-probability piece of your position that you hold well past your first targets, aiming for an extended move. It only works when the board is mapped in advance… you trail your stop level to level and let the big move pay if it comes.

How far does ES futures price usually travel on a strong move?

A: In this session George notes price typically runs 5 to 7 Strong Levels on a good directional move. Once that range is complete, the meat of the move is likely behind you, which changes whether you should keep pressing in the same direction.

Why not initiate a fresh short after a big overnight drop?

A: Because the big vomit already happened. Yesterday’s plan moved over 100 points and tagged the expected range for the week. Chasing a new short after the move is complete means entering late while price is laddering back up… that is chasing, not mapping.

Why is my trade plan more important than the Battle Plan?

A: The Battle Plan is a set of mapped ideas… you pick and choose which you take. Your own written trade plan defines your rules… like George’s rule to only hold a short overnight if he’s up over 100 points. Your plan governs your actual decisions, so it outranks any list of ideas.

When should I add to a winning ES futures trade?

A: George wants a minimum of 20 points of profit before adding. A clean add is when price bumps a Strong Level, pulls back, then charges again. And if you’re already green, ask whether you truly need another trade… often the better move is simply staying in your winning trade.

Why do Strong Levels break only after a news event?

A: A Strong Level can defend repeatedly, holding price back over and over. It often takes a catalyst… like the Iran headlines flagged in the Battle Plan… to finally break it and trigger the sharp flush, or “vomit.” That is why you respect both the levels and the economic calendar.

What is FOMC Minutes and how should I prep my chart for it?

A: FOMC Minutes is the released record of the Fed’s last policy meeting and can move ES sharply. Mark the release time on your chart… a simple red vertical line works… so you’re not caught off guard. The Trade Buddy indicator will also remind you it’s coming.

📅 Upcoming This Week

Hit the bell — every AM Briefing and live trading session this week is already scheduled on YouTube:

• Thursday, Thu Jul 9: AM Briefing · Live Stream
• Friday, Fri Jul 10: AM Briefing · Live Stream