ES TRADE PLAN 708
Tuesday AM Briefing: MES/ES Futures Battle Plan
Executive Summary
This briefing synthesizes the market analysis and tactical “Battle Plan” provided by Micros Trader for the Tuesday AM session. The current market environment is characterized by divergence: while the Dow has achieved a new all-time high, the Nasdaq (NQ) remains in a consolidative “inside day” posture. The primary trading strategy focuses on ES/MES futures, utilizing a structured “Battle Plan” that maps out high-probability long entries based on micro-pullbacks and reclaims of established “strong ranges.” Key tactical levels for long positions include entries above 6940 and 35, while a specific shorting strategy was identified at the 62 level within a strong range to exploit price returns during an uptrend.
Market Context and Economic Drivers
The trading week is framed by several key economic data releases that act as primary news drivers. While the Tuesday session lacks significant news catalysts, the remainder of the week contains high-impact events:
- Wednesday: JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) reports.
- Friday: Non-farm payroll data.
The “Battle Plan” for the week is currently unlocked and being utilized to guide live trading sessions on Zoom and YouTube.
The Battle Plan Framework
The Battle Plan is a daily strategic document that maps out expected price action and specific trade setups. It includes several distinct components:
- Continuous Review: Analysis of previous trades, including entries and potential point captures.
- Audio Integration: The digital plan includes an audio feature for traders to listen to the analysis at increased speeds.
- Price Mapping: Visual charts identifying “strong ranges,” “strong levels,” and “Speculator Specials.”
- Performance Metrics: The strategy identifies high-probability trades that typically yield significant moves, with a goal of identifying one trade per week that reaches approximately 100 points.
Tactical Analysis of ES/MES Trade Setups
The briefing identifies specific conditions and levels for navigating the ES/MES futures market.
Shorting an Uptrend
A central question addressed is: “When can you short an uptrend?” The strategy provides three specific answers, highlighting one primary method:
- Location-Based Shorting: Identifying a spot above current price action where the market is likely to “come back in.”
- Execution: A short was identified at 62 inside the strong range, with a stop placed just above it. This setup targeted the RTH low.
Current Battle Plan Long Scenarios
| Setup | Tactical Description | Key Levels / Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| Battle Plan #1 (Micro Pullback) | Targeted a shallow pullback following the market close. | Focus on “snappiness” of the ladder back price action; ideal entry above 6940. |
| Battle Plan #2 (Deep Pullback) | A deeper pullback targeting a “trap” of long traders off the daily low. | Reclaim and retest of the “strong range”; ideal entry above 35. |
Comparative Index Analysis
The market exhibits significant divergence across major indices, influencing how levels are mapped.
- The Dow (YM): Demonstrating extreme strength, pushed through its previous all-time high to create a new higher high.
- The Nasdaq (NQ/ENQ): Lagging behind; experienced an “inside day.” It is holding above the “halfback” (midpoint) of Friday’s range.
- ES/MES: Currently challenging yesterday’s halfback but remains well above the previous day’s halfback.
Strategic Outlook and Conclusions
The current bias remains bullish as long as prices stay above critical mid-points (halfbacks). However, after the Dow’s new all-time high, a “relief pullback” is anticipated.
Frequently Asked Questions
A: The Battle Plan identifies two main long entry levels: Battle Plan #1 (micro pullback) with an ideal entry above 6940, and Battle Plan #2 (deep pullback) with an entry above 35 following a reclaim of the strong range.
A: Shorting an uptrend is handled via location-based setups. For example, a short was identified at the 62 level within a strong range, using a stop just above the level to target a move back toward the RTH low.
A: High-impact drivers include the JOLTS (Job Openings) report on Wednesday and the Non-farm payroll data on Friday.
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