Thu AM Briefing: ES & MES Levels and Setups and Plans for Today’s Trading Session
Opening Remarks
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the AM briefing brought to you by MicroTrader.com, where together we trade better. It is Thursday, June 5th, episode number 444. Let’s get into it.
“A thief only comes to steal and to kill and to destroy. I have come so that you may have life and have it in abundance.” – John 10:10
Essay Format Questions
- What type of price action should you walk away from?
- What emotional temptation feels like a “thief” in your trading?
Trading Discipline Tip
Today’s tip of the day: Can you say no to price action? A trader who can’t say no won’t be a trader for long. What type of price action makes you walk away? Journal it.
Yesterday was a total “I’m not trading this” day. We were hugging that 4292 level all day long. It simply wasn’t worth trading. Focus on easier days.
Pre-NFP Trade Planning
The day before non-farm payroll (NFP) is crucial. Your trade plan should specify what this day means for you—whether it’s a “one and done” day or a “one loss and done” day. In our group journal, check the “day before NFP” box so you can later review your mindset and performance for these sessions.
Chart Review and Battle Plan
Last night’s battle plan had two parts. I skipped the first entry because I wanted a deeper move. The pullback didn’t reach my order at 4295. After group analysis, I chose not to take it at all.
We’re currently basing at a key level, possibly forming a multi-session reversal box. I’ll be very selective with entries, looking toward 2025 open if we drop, or following yesterday’s upper level plan if we rise.
Market Structure and Bias
This is not bearish. We may be forming a multi-session reversal box. NQ isn’t dropping, and if Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple align directionally, it could be an exciting session.
Intraday Scenarios and Reactions
If we pop up early, I’ll watch the reactions and see if we pull back into the key level or break down from the open. Either way, we have predefined setups. Let’s trade it live together.
Bull-Bear Scorecard Analysis
Overnight trendline: neutral. Session stacking: none. VWAP: flat. Overnight halfback: neutral. Current position: bullish. Indices: bullish.
Use 4264 as today’s bull-bear line, and 4217 as the high-timeframe support. If we reach 4217, that could be an exciting area heading into NFP.
Risk Management and Trade Discipline
Trade small, know your stop, and don’t make things worse. If you’re using a “one loss and done” rule, respect it. Personally, I’m leaning toward either “one trade and I’m done” or “one loss and done.” Any second trade would only risk a portion of gains.
Closing Remarks
Edge remains with the bulls, but caution is warranted. Breakdown could hit 4247–4241, then 4217. Upside could target the opening gap and 4320. See you live at the top of the hour. Stay green, my friends.
To learn more about our group, visit MicroTrader.com.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What should I include in my trade plan for the day before NFP?
A: Specify risk limits and trading rules such as “one and done” or “one loss and done,” and track them in your journal.
Q: How should I react to a potential liquidation break?
A: Avoid limit orders and only consider longs with ladder entries; reduce size and know your stop.
Q: What does the bull-bear scorecard suggest for today?
A: It leans bullish based on position and indices strength, but with neutral readings on VWAP, halfback, and session stacking, traders should remain cautious.
ADDITIONAL LINKS:
- Day Traders Blog – Insights and Journaling for ES/MES
- CME Group: Micro E-Mini Equity Futures Overview
- CME Futures Trading Simulator – Practice Micro E-Minis Risk-Free
- YouTube Community Tab – Trader Polls and Live Updates
- AM BRIEFING Archive – Technical Breakdown for May 30, 2025
- Emini Trading Room – Opening Bell Prep for Futures Traders
- MES Micros Blog – Inside the Micros Room (June 5, 2025)
LIVE ON ZOOM TODAY: Opening Remarks
Stops are just a cost of doing business. Every business has its costs—insurance, rent, theft. If you own a grocery store and the freezers go out, it’s a loss you absorb. In trading, the equivalent is using stops to keep yourself in the game. Don’t let a stubborn loss knock you out for good.
The “Stupid Number” and Risk Management
We’ve all hit the point where a loss gets too big and emotions take over. You start thinking, “Screw it, just blow the account!” It’s critical to identify where your breaking point is and never let a loss get near it. If your “F-it” number is -$500, then your max loss should be capped at $250 to protect yourself. Use stops to manage that. Be a professional loser—size properly and follow your leverage metrics.
Market Structure and Early Session Analysis
We have a large overnight range today. Back in pre-Trump years, it was typically 20 points; now we’re seeing 46-point overnight moves. At the open, price danced around the 92 level. It’s revisiting key levels from yesterday. The AM briefing emphasized caution around reversal boxes. Nothing attractive on the 30-minute chart, but the larger time frame shows possible reversals.
Trade Execution and Missed Opportunities
I considered a short at 92 but didn’t take it—it was against my plan. Sometimes you want to act, but you must resist prediction trading. I eventually took a short at 81 with a 2-point stop and locked in 10 points. That was the right trade. Reversal boxes offer opportunity, but only with confirmation. No limit-order knife-catching on volatile days like this, especially ahead of non-farm payroll (NFP).
Battle Plans and Scorecard System
We use a bull/bear scorecard based on raw levels and context. Price being above or below key levels turns those cells green or red. This tool helps keep perspective during fast moves. Currently, the Bears are showing control on the RTH timeframe, but overall Bulls still have the edge.
Trade Management and Runner Philosophy
If you take a short and it runs, manage your runners smartly. Move stops to breakeven or better. Runner management is a blunt instrument—entries are surgical, but runners are tricky. Use data from past trades to refine your process. Think through whether your exit plan would have allowed you to stay in the trade.
Time Frame Strategy and Entry Refinement
Most trades are planned on the 3-minute chart. Drop to the 1-minute or 30-second only when at a location of interest or seeking a greedier entry inside a 3-minute level. Never use lower timeframes to force trades. Stick with clean, crisp levels and always know where you are in the broader structure.
Behavior Around News Events
Volatility is high, with several 15-point candles appearing. Political headlines and upcoming NFP contribute to irrational price action. This is the type of day where you can get hurt if you try to force trades. Preserve green days, avoid prediction trading, and journal everything.
Essay Format Questions
- What was your emotional state during volatile moves today?
- How will you adjust your entries around major news events in the future?
Journaling and Reflection
Mark the day before NFP in your trade journal. Take screenshots of price action and annotate decisions made. Record entries, exits, reasons, and outcomes. This will pay off in long-term performance review.
Glossary of Key Terms
- RTH: Regular Trading Hours – typically 9:30am–4:00pm ET
- Reversal Box: A zone drawn to identify areas of potential directional change
- Laddering: A method of scaling into or out of trades based on microstructure
- Backside/Frontside: Technical terms defining which side of a move you’re trading from
- Bull/Bear Scorecard: A live system grading bias based on technical levels
Filtering Longs and Shorts
If price doesn’t reclaim the 70 level, there’s no long for me. Bears are in control intraday according to the scorecard, even if the higher timeframe is still bullish. Look for ladder-back confirmations. Avoid prediction longs when price is vomiting down—respect the structure and react instead of guessing.
Runner Strategy Examples
When running multiple contracts, always look to remove some for profit early—say 4–5 points. That gives you the room to manage a break-even stop or small negative on your runner. If price reverses sharply, you won’t regret being conservative. Runner stops are never surgical—they’re defensive tools to preserve gains.
Emotional Control and Discipline
It’s important to identify when you’re “forcing it.” I wanted a short at 92 early in the day, but I followed my plan and waited for better confirmation at 81. A good trader must separate what they want from what the market is offering. Green is green—preserve it, especially on tricky days like this.
“Discipline is choosing between what you want now and what you want most.”
Closing Commentary
This was the day before non-farm payroll. It’s not a great day to trade. I sized down to one contract per trade, journaled my levels, and preserved a six-point green day. I’m happy with that. Sometimes your best trade is walking away, especially after 10:30 ET on a volatile day. Monday or Sunday night will likely offer better conditions.
