Monday June 30, 2025
Opening Remarks
Welcome to the AM Briefing video presented by MicroTrader.com — where together we trade better. Good morning, everybody, and happy Monday, June 30th — the final day of the month and the final day of the quarter. Be cautious this week; it’s a shortened holiday week.
This week’s scripture is from Deuteronomy 31:6. I love it, and I hope you do too:
“Be strong and courageous. Do not be terrified or afraid of them, for it is the Lord your God who goes with you; He will not leave you or forsake you.”
Mindset and Trading Psychology
Be careful shorting strength — we are making higher highs and higher lows. The market is marching north with a vengeance. You don’t need to be in every trade. You only need a slice of today’s price action to reach your daily goal.
Ask yourself: what is the move that aligns with your setup? Sit back, wait for that trade to develop, map it out, and take it with confidence. Be okay with missing a move or multiple moves. You’re waiting for your wave — the one you want to surf. So be patient this week and let the trade come to you.
Essay Format Questions
- If you repeated this week 10 more times, what would you change?
- How did last week’s higher highs and higher lows affect your mindset?
- What lesson will you carry into the next similar market structure?
News Drivers and Weekly Outlook
There’s not much news today. Tomorrow, however, Powell speaks at the opening. I’ll be live on YouTube during the open — consider this a little sneak peek of how we map out trades in real time. It’s not a trial, but it’s the closest thing to it.
Thursday is a half-day and also Non-Farm Payroll day. That means a built-in four-day weekend. These types of days are generally not ideal for trading. So plan accordingly for a shortened week with low liquidity.
Community Reminders
Strong levels were updated last night for 6/30. Today is Monday — we will have our Lunch & Learn one hour after the morning Zoom. I plan to do a daily recap video at the end of each day this week.
I sometimes go live unannounced when energy and the market align. If you’d like to be notified, please like, subscribe, and consider becoming a member.
We offer a free Foundations Course and a two-path structure for joining the group. You can become a full member directly or go through a badge-earning process. Once you earn both badges, you’re invited to continue your training.
Please submit your charts — it’s critical to receive feedback. I’m not being harsh when I critique them; I’m making sure you’re getting it right. No one else is likely to check your bounce levels, so take advantage of this.
Cash Market and Price Action
Make sure you look at the cash market because that’s the real deal. Unlike futures, you can’t back-adjust cash — it is what it is. SPY broke out above its previous high and looks poised to open higher, just like the ES chart suggests.
Looking at ES, we had an established range that we finally broke above, then retested and surged — making higher highs and higher lows with only a single solid pullback. I watched the pullback, but I was too tired, so I didn’t trade it. I took a nap instead, and I’m fine with that. There will be more opportunities.
Key Levels and Trade Ideas
We had a gap down at the start of last week, followed by a strong move up. As long as we’re above that high time frame range, give bulls the benefit of the doubt. Our current bull/bear line is at 5750. I’d love a pullback into that area or even deeper, back to the daily trendline — reclaiming the bull/bear line for a potential setup.
Friday’s Point of Control (POC) is near the new week opening gap. So our first area to watch is the RTH high. If price bounces there and gives a ladder, I’d consider a small entry. However, I’d prefer it to come back further — ideally into the Sunday opening and the gap zone. Below that, a short targeting Friday’s low could also be valid.
Glossary of Key Terms
- POC: Point of Control — the highest volume price of the session.
- RTH: Regular Trading Hours — typically 9:30am to 4:00pm Eastern.
- Anchored VWAP: Volume Weighted Average Price starting from a key event or session.
Patience Over Prediction
Bulls are clearly in control. Most indices are participating in this strong move north, except for the Russell, which is lagging. You don’t need to be the first short. There’s more than enough meat on the bone for second and third ladder entries.
I’d rather wait for a pullback into the bull/bear line area, aligned with last Monday’s anchored VWAP. Allow structure to develop — you don’t need to be in the trade both ways. For me, it’s better to wait until price gets to a predefined level and then engage.
The London session was weaker than Asia — several failed breakout attempts. That usually means price may need to pull back further to gather buyers. But that doesn’t mean you short it blindly. Let it come down, grab liquidity, and show structure first.
Final Thoughts
First, check how price reacts to the RTH high. If it bounces and ladders, maybe a small long. But I’d rather it drops to Asia’s low, reclaims, and gives a second ladder long.
If we just go straight down to the new week opening gap — even better. That’s my preferred entry zone. If it fails to even get down there, that’s a sign bulls are incredibly strong. We gapped up overnight — bulls are driving this.
The easiest path is north. Let the short sellers get overconfident, then watch them get squeezed. That’s the trade I want to be in.
I’ll see my traders 15 minutes before the open. Good luck today. Stay green, my friends, and to learn more about our group, visit MicroTrader.com.
TRADER FAQ
Q: Why is shorting into strength discouraged in this market environment?
A: The current market is in a strong bullish trend with consistent higher highs and lows. Shorting prematurely can lead to getting caught in short squeezes, where price continues upward, causing losses.
Q: What’s the preferred trade entry strategy discussed in this briefing?
A: The preferred strategy involves waiting for a deep pullback into key support zones like the new week opening gap or Asia low, then entering long as price confirms reversal.
Q: What is the significance of the bull/bear line at 5750?
A: It’s a structural level used to distinguish between bullish and bearish conditions. Holding above it signals continuation of the trend, while falling below it may invalidate long setups.
ADDITIONAL LINKS:
- Day Traders Blog: Daily Market Commentary & Journal Prompts
- Official CME Micros Info – Contract Specs for MES, MNQ, M2K, and More
- CME Trading Simulator – Practice Futures Trading Risk-Free
- YouTube Community Tab – Updates, Polls & Trader Interaction
- AM BRIEFING Archive – Technical Recap for May 30, 2025
- Emini Trading Room – June 30 Key Market Levels for ES/MES
- MES Micros Blog – June 30 Opening Bell Prep Notes
