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Good morning, everybody. Good morning! Some good tunes this morning. The first quote I want to share with you today: “For we are God’s masterpiece.” I love that. You are a masterpiece. That’s right. You have to appreciate that, love that, and be thankful for that.

Alright, I hope you had a great holiday yesterday. I loved having a break in the middle of the week; it was really refreshing. I was like, “Man, maybe I should be trading all day Tuesday and take every Wednesday off.” It was so refreshing. I can’t wait to look at the charts today. I’m not sure I’m that excited to trade today, which we will talk about.

Alright, let’s get into it. Welcome to the AM briefing number 202, brought to you by, where together we trade better. Let’s get into it.

Tip of the day: Treat the short holiday session yesterday as part of the overnight activity. It was unbelievable, the move that we’ve had overnight. But I still treat yesterday’s RTH as part of the overnight session. So you kind of had an overnight half of an RTH, which is still considered overnight, and then overnight again. So I treat all of that like one big session. Okay, so we’ll talk about that on the chart.

Now, the second thing I want to share with you is something I read last night from the writings of Charles Spurgeon. He said something, referencing Christians, but I love this sentence because it relates to trading 100%: “Neither adversity nor prosperity can move him; he is steadfast in principle, doctrine, and action.” I’m going to read that one more time because, number one, it’s beautifully written, and two, it’s a statement that we should all strive to live by as traders: “Neither adversity nor prosperity can move him; he is steadfast in principle, doctrine, and action.” I hope to be steadfast in my trading today as well.

News drivers today: Well, today is Thursday. In 30 minutes, we have unemployment claims, building permits, and the Philly Fed Market Manufacturing Index. Tomorrow is the problem: tomorrow is quarterly quad witching. It’s going to be today and tomorrow. I’m telling you, just come back on Monday or Tuesday and trade through the rest of the week. It is dangerous. Dangerous. It reminded me of Tuesday. I told the guys within a half hour of trading, “Today feels dangerous,” and that’s the way it’s going to be for the rest of the week. So I’m going to use that word “dangerous” again because that’s what it is for the rest of the week. Trade accordingly—small, if at all.

Let’s go back and review Tuesday for one second. I told you it was a sandwich day: Monday had a monster move, Wednesday was a holiday, so Tuesday was a sandwich day. And it’s not a very good-tasting sandwich. The next time we have a day that I consider to be a sandwich day, just realize it might be a nothing day. I had zero trades. There was no trade in there for me to try and take. There was no sense in looking for trades. There are easier days to trade and easier weeks to trade, and that certainly goes for today and tomorrow. And so today certainly would be Friday Rules starting today. Friday Rules start today.

We are now on the 20th and should be in this little decline phase of the seasonality, but once again, it’s also a presidential year.

Let’s get to the charts:
Where are we? Here is this high time frame trend line, and we have quite a bit of separation from that line. In fact, I’m going to come in here and draw this trend line next. When can you start shorting this? We have to break some stuff, dudes. We haven’t broken anything. It’s just straight up, with little consolidation. So let’s have that discussion.

This was one day here, and this is the overnight. I’m just going to treat all of this as the overnight session. It’s real easy because all the lows are exactly right here, so it makes it real easy. Then we got a new all-time high up here, so let’s go ahead and adjust the all-time high right up here.

You need to come in and make sure you mark all of these session lows. It looks like this Asia was the lowest here and this RTH low, so let’s go ahead and do that. I’m going to mark this Asia low here, Asia overnight low, and then we got it again, so let’s just duplicate it and bring it over. Then we got this RTH low. Let’s mark that, and then we’ve got this London low here. So let’s get that marked.

Alright, we have to start breaking some stuff here before you even entertain a short. It’s real hard to want to chase up here, plus quad witching today and tomorrow. We don’t need to be pushing our luck here and trying to find a trade. You want a trade where you go, “Oh my gosh, I have to take this. I’ve got to do it. This matches everything and I have multiple confluences.” Maybe today and tomorrow you go, “Oh, you know what? Unless there are three reasons, I’m taking this trade.” You know, it’s a backside fair value gap with the trend at the trend line. You know what I mean, like multiple confluences. Otherwise, I’m not sure you want to put your capital at risk today. That’s my humble opinion.

So we’ve got stair-stepping things here. If I wanted to, I could go ahead and throw in this London overnight low. I just assume we’re going to break it, but what do I know? I make that assumption. Now that’s marked, that’s marked, that’s marked. Also, the overnight low, the London overnight low, also matches up with the overnight halfback. Got a trending line here. Okay, okay.

Alright, let’s go look at everybody else. I marked these, and you know, these are weird to mark because of the same reason. We’ve got all of that, but let’s look at this in general. Where are we with our VWAPs? Everybody’s VWAP is pointed up. Let’s pull this in. Am I still on the M contracts on these? Oh my goodness, I have to go back and change these to the U contract. I didn’t realize I still had those on the M. So I’m going to change that. But still, there’s obviously a little bit of volume, very light though. Look at all this skipping around. This is why we switched to the U contract on Monday. A lot of people switched on Tuesday as well. But we can see we’re all above VWAP, everyone’s VWAP is sloping up, and at this point, it looks like Russell is doing that. In fact, I want to come in here. Let’s go RTY. If you want to hang out just a minute, let’s just make sure we’re all on the same page here. YM, I switched that to the M when TradingView switched, but I did.

Now let’s switch all that back. It only takes a second. It only takes a second and I’ll go in and correct my levels after this. I just want to see if we’re all on the same train. Did we all do the same thing overnight? Yeah, okay, so that’s what I’m looking for. We’ve all got upward-sloping VWAPs, we’re all above our VWAPs, we’re all laddering up. The play is long or flat. Who is in control is kind of the main thing I’d want to say here. Who is in control? 100%, without question, it’s a bull market and bulls are in control. Bulls are in control, so don’t be trying to short strength.

When can you short? I tell my traders all the time, you have to come up with the criteria for when you can short. The first criteria is, and you can decide what it is, something has to break—break to the south, and I mean break good. Okay, the play is long or flat. That’s my humble opinion and I can’t wait to see my traders and trade with them live. You guys have a great day. Green my friends. To learn more about our group, go to