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“Welcome to the AM briefing video presented by micros where together we trade better. Good morning, good morning, happy Thursday, April the 4th, the day before nonfarm payroll, a perfect day in all honesty to not trade. The risk of trading is much higher today; this is a low probability environment. You should still watch price action; it doesn’t mean that you should trade. So be careful today. Today is a perfect day to leverage down; it’s the day before nonfarm payroll, also known as ‘Rip Your Face Off’ day, also known as FFO day. So be careful.

Alright, so for this year I’m tracking some additional metrics to the best of my ability. It’s something I know I’ve got to keep up every day, but for the limited data we have (and it’s not many trades yet), but I’m tracking trading windows. And I’m just going to bring this out in general: So if you trade the AM and PM, okay, and not trading New York lunch or the Power Hour, okay, this is the number of winners, pretty consistent, right? That’s about equal. What about the number of losers? Number of losers dramatically increase if you trade New York lunch and Power Hour. Now, at this time, all of these losses are in the Power Hour. So, it’s a little deceptive. And it’s a small data set. And then the number of break-evens: 10 versus 16, almost, well, it is 1.6 times the number, so 4 times the losers, 1.6 the break-evens. Of course, these metrics will change a little bit as time moves on.

So, I wanted to drill down a little bit more into the Power Hour. So actually, the Power Hour, I am tracking them by the first 30 minutes versus the final 30 minutes. Once again, these are winners, losers, break-evens. So let’s look at the final 30 minutes as an example: 6 winners, okay, six flat out, no question about it, rip-your-face-off losers, and 7 break-evens. Do you want to trade during a time where this is your percentages? The first 30 minutes: 3 winners, 2 losers, 4 break-evens. Avoid trading the Power Hour. If you do trade, what should you do? Dial way down, require backup levels, because this doesn’t look great. Probably even trade with a bigger stop-loss. I don’t know, it’s a tough environment and the metrics aren’t that beautiful. Or would you rather trade in an area where you got 24 winners and 2 losers, or 9 winners and 9 losers? Which one? How can you get rid of C and D level trades? When should you not be trading? That’s today’s tip: Know when you should not be trading.

Today’s news drivers: unemployment claims. But tomorrow is one of the trifecta of news events, which is the trifecta is FOMC, CPI, and nonfarm payroll. Today we have unemployment claims and several speakers spread throughout here. The New York lunchtime frame and the PM, actually. So, nope, actually, it’s all New York lunch. NOP, this 1:00 is my time George, sorry, these are Central times. So, this does start the Silver Bullet hour with a speaker, interesting. Alright, so we’ll see how all of that plays.

So, where are we on the chart? Well, yesterday we failed to fill this gap. Okay, we failed to fill it. To me, that was just such a big red flag. And we’ve got this reversal box situation. If you’re in my group and you want, and because you don’t get these all the time, search our group for reversal boxes. I’m pretty sure I have it in Flight School, and we talk about the requirements of that to where you’re not a victim of this. And if in fact, we’re anticipating this, trying to find a way to be short with that. Okay, the thing you don’t want to do is go long unless you go long at the very bottom of the range. Go to your three-minute chart, look at that front side. You’ll see it tagged it perfectly. Our reversal box rules rock. Make sure you investigate that.

So, yesterday, the PCK was right here, and look where we have danced all night long on top of PCK. Come up, and it was only when we opened up in the maintenance period, we ran up here and grabbed the gap. I mean, talk about manipulation. I mean, seriously. So, that’s interesting in and of itself. And at this point, if you’re going to draw a trendline, you’d have to come in here and draw something like this. Okay, now, careful with shorts above that didn’t really turn out to be true. And what didn’t happen though, and I this is what I told the group, this is not short-covering to me. This is not short-covering. And they couldn’t get the gap. I felt the shorts were not getting out of their positions. And we got this beautiful reversal box. Now, they might have gotten out here. This looks more like a short-cover move, not this stuff here. So, we’re going to see. I’m not going to change my notes there. You should be careful with shorts above. We filled the gap. Are we going to get back into the range of this day? Are we going to get back into that range on Monday and take it all back? It’s very, very, very possible. At this point, you’d have to say we are lading up. This is a little bit of like a ceiling here. Are we going to pop that? Then we’ve got this strong range. And I think once we, especially now, get over Monday’s half-back, be careful shorting above. I’m going to trade the levels as they’re presented. And I’m hoping that if we’re, if we get up here, I’m already long. I’m just on for the ride. I’m not looking for a short. I want to be long for the ride. Now, if it proves to me something different, I don’t mind going short. But at this moment, the play looks long or flat. Long or flat. If you’d like to learn more about how we draw our bounce levels or just to watch us on Zoom to check us out, go to micr Stay Green, my friends. And to learn more about our group, go to”