Basic Core Strategy Trades For Friday OPEX

Transcript
“All right, happy Friday, April the 19th, members. Today was option expiration, as noted in the note to the traders inside of the Discord group on the trading floor. And if there are certain days to not trade, in fact, if you look under Friday rules when it pops up in our group in the morning, one of the key items there is maybe do not trade option expiration. And so, what here, let me go up here to the search and you can search by person, so I searched me and I put the word ‘Opex’ there. I was just curious what had been said in the past. Today, I was talking about how Opex deserves to be in the category of CPI, FOMC, and nonfarm payroll. It’s something we forget about. It’s every third Friday of each month, okay? So, you can see today how many times I said, ‘Hey guys, be careful, expect squirrely, ugly PA. Careful, careful, careful.’ And then we go back in time. Let’s go back a little bit, talking about your ideal trading windows here. What if you stayed away from CPI, non-farm payroll, FOMC, Opex, option expiration, the days after holidays, Mondays? I’m telling you, knowing when not to trade will help you. In February, here’s then Opex’s vomit, eight candles plus Opex, just irrational price action all over the place right here. Put Opex third Friday as a do not trade day, okay? That’s one clear message over and over that we continually see month after month. February Opex Friday is no joke. Opex days are wild rides. Opex wild. It’s Opex afternoon. As a group, we went and looked at the last six Opex days. I wish I recorded that. I wonder if it’s on my YouTube channel. But it’s wild and difficult right here. Opex expect wild or weird difficult unexpected price action. When not to trade, Opex is one of them. So, this is the type of day to respect. If you wanted a three-day week in once a month, for sure, back in February. Tomorrow, Opex’s weird price action inbound, absolutely. If you’re looking for a three-day weekend once a month, take option expiration Friday off, the third Friday of each month. So, let’s look at our trades today. So, the first thing I like to look at is overnight low and high. We only hit the overnight high, so we’re going to record that one. So, this is Friday. It was during the AM session. It was definitely overnight high, and I made a new special category here. I got trifecta today here, but I’m going to add a new one for option expiration. I’m going to track that one separate from the FOMC, CPI, nonfarm payroll, and just see what those statistics will look like over time. How much heat did this thing take? I’m measuring the heat on these trades. 1.5, 1.5. There is no better entry. It was basically touch and go. We were marching here. Let’s see what would be, yeah, I’m going to say counter. That was counter, and it was profit for sure, eight points. And let’s screenshot this. I’m going to circle it here. I need to move this over to here. Okay, so first trade on the board. There we go. Now, we’re looking at IB lows and highs. This was an IB low, so we’re going to mark this trade. Fridays, you know what? I’m going to turn off this and this, actually. I’m going to keep that on for time. Okay, and this trade occurred in the AM session. This was the overnight low. Let’s, I got to call that chop at this point. But option expiration Friday, how much heat? Zero, actually. And there’s no wick or base. I won’t say it’s touch and go, but I’m not going to give it wiggle, wiggle either. I’m going to say we were in chop, and you certainly made a profit. Let’s go to the one-minute chart on this, just take a peek. This in a little bit more minute way. Let’s come in and look at this on a 30-second chart, look at it a little bit closer. Let’s see if we can go to the 15-second chart, look at it even a little closer. Okay, so you took a tiny bit of baby heat. It went up two points, so you definitely made a profit. I don’t think you would have made five points, because it came back and probably would have gotten you out of your runner. So, I’m going to say it was profit, but not five points. Let’s point to it right here. Screenshot it. Not five points, but it was a profit. Overnight, I mean, IB low, perfect. All right, let’s get rid of this. Let’s turn this off. All right, now let’s look for core strategy trades that occurred during the day. Now, every one of these are going to be an eight-point candle land. And in fact, those last two, I need to go back and add the special situation eighto candle land. I’m doing that right now. And eighto candle land. Okay, so no two candle clearance, no two candle clearance. Okay, this is a front side here. It’s a weak front side with no backup. With no backup, you would have got you in right there. Let’s go to a one-minute chart. I’m just curious what that looks like on a one minute. Got to go to a 302 to see what might have really happened in there. All right, so definitely wiggle, wiggle, wiggle. Definitely wiggle, wiggle, wiggle. And I bet the base was the better entry. Let’s go back and look at that. Let’s see if the base even gave you an entry. I don’t even know. Let’s find out. That’s why we measure these things. The base, you probably would not have been in the trade. It have probably almost got you, but then again, are you really do you really want to take a front side with no backup level? I don’t know. So, we’re going to call that off the wick and I’m going to call it break even Wednesday AM weak front side eighto candle land option expiration no backup level. There was no better entry there. So, I’m not marking it. It was wiggle, wiggle, wiggle. Chop, break even. And here, actually, I need to move this up. And let’s change this to our normal color. Let’s point to it just so it helps later. Maybe actually, I reviewed a ton of charts this morning and so the arrow actually does help a lot. Helps you get there quicker. I reviewed a ton of charts this morning and so the arrow actually does help a lot. Helps you get there quicker. What if one of those were better at the break even? Just taking the gift of break even. It was back forth, back forth, back forth. All right, thanks for the prompt. So, front side, once again, you’re an eighto candle L. None of these are really trades by the eight-point candle rule. You got a front side here once again. Well, if I measure it by the wick, I did not have two candle clearance, doesn’t count. No backside, no clearance. This would be a front side here. We’re going to go ahead and mark this one. So, Friday, this would have been in the PM session. This would be a weak front side because there’s no backside development. So, I have to call it that. Do I? And this is definitely AO candle land, option expiration. It isn’t a fair value gap, which was better, the base was actually better, backup level. I’m going to say yes, how many backup levels? This is where I’m keeping track of how many backup levels. Let’s go look at that on a one minute. See what that looks like on a one minute. Okay, let’s go to 30 second chart. All right, well, the flip over in time was actually right there. So, definitely profit. Did it bounce five points? Yes. Okay, so let’s go back to a three minute chart. So, this is going to be, well, I got to look at the situation here. Is this with the trend? Is this chop? What is this? This is going to be a counter. And here’s what I’m thinking, because we were talking about this. No, it broke it. No, no, no. So, it’s just counter. Counter trade. I’m not going to say it was wiggle, wiggle, wiggle or anything. It was profit. It was five point potential here. Screenshot this. Okay, so let’s go look for our next levels here. So, price goes up. What did it leave behind? Do I have anything? Do I have anything? This, let me think here for one second. That’s a blocked backside. That’s a front side. That would be a brake level. Sorry, I’m just thinking out loud here as we’re going through it. Let’s change you to the correct color. Change you to the correct color. I’m just thinking here. This would have been a backside, but it only had front side. So, it’s going to be called a weak front side, but it does have a break level. So, yeah. And then you have this peak. Price went away. No front side. If there’s no front side, I’m not going to call it a break level. That’s what we’ve discussed this week. If there’s no front side, I’m not counting it as a break level. That’s not a break level. There’s no front side. All right. So, this is a front side. Let’s go. Let’s deal with this trade first. Let’s go look at this on a one minute chart. So, one minute chart looks like it touched and bounced before it actually went through. It did. There’s a 30 second chart. Let’s see if it bounced two points. It did bounce two points. All right. So, let’s go back to three minute chart. So, you are an eight point candle land and you do have a backup level. Okay. So, Friday, this was in the PM session. You had a weak front side because there was no backside development. You were certainly in eighto candle land. It was in a fair value gap. This is option expiration Friday. There’s no difference between the wick and the body. Didn’t have a backup level. Yes. How many? One. It was a touch and go. It was counter. I’m going to call this L. Yeah. Yeah. Counter. It was profitable. It did go two points. Price action was very quick then because I was trading it. I was long. And let’s take a screenshot and submit. Now, let’s go to the break level. Break level is a nice trade there. Friday, PM, weak break because there’s no backside development. Eight points. No fair value gap. Option expiration. In this case, actually, the wick would have been better. Like, let’s just move it to the wick. It’s pretty much touch and go. Counter. Profit. Five points. Yes. It went 24 points there in two candles. And screenshot. Look at all these eight point candles, guys. This is really not fun trading. There are easier days to trade than this day. Okay. And so, let me turn this off so I can see the day again. All right. So, price slams down, leaving you a front side here, but no entry. No backside. No backside. That’s where it bounced off the front side. It created this level here. Went down. This never created anything. So, there’s you a backside. This would have been with the trend. So, Friday, it is in the first 30 minutes. It is a backside. It is in a fair value. Eighto candle land. Fair value gap. Option expiration. Friday. Um, in this case, the base would have been a better choice. And let’s go look at this on a one minute chart. Okay. I don’t count. Consider two candles wiggle, wiggle, wiggle. I don’t consider touch and go either. So, I’m not marking any of those. This I want to say was with the trend. And this was with the trend. On which ladder actually? Um, one, two, in the third ladder. It was profitable. Certainly, it was five points. Five point potential that doesn’t mean you would have made five points. So, five o potential here. Screenshot. Close. And submit. Okay. Then this became a break level here. So, let’s make that a break level. This was your long right there. So, let’s go. Friday, this entry would have been in the PM. You had a NOP. Did I have a front side? I did not have a front side. This is not a brake level. I’m going to stick to that. I got to have a front side to make it a brake level. Um, then there was nothing here. There’s no other trades here. Stay green, my friends. And to learn more about our group, go to microstrader.com.”