Transcript
Candle By Candle Price Action Analysis & Trading System For ES Emini and MES Micro Futures Contract
okay guys let’s replay this day this is very similar what we do on the candle by candle Workshop that class three is tomorrow if you want to join us and you’ll get the recordings for the previous two but we’re going to walk through this day because this is really important first of all it starts out with your am briefing today is a difficult Opex Friday day plus Monday is a holiday and if you’re looking a week ahead fomc is in two trading days Friday rules are in place what are Friday rules Friday rules are trade at half of your normal daily stop so if you can say hey on any given day I’ll lose a th000 bucks no problem well today is 500 or you take a percentage of your weekly profits and you do 10 20 30 40 50% you decide how much am I willing to give up of my weekly profits cuz the goal is to go into the week and a winner nothing sucks more than giving back your week on Friday ask me how I know how did we come up with Friday rules pain prediction yes prediction pain that’s how pain so you must go into today knowing level 10 difficulty trade small if at all so let’s play The Day first of all this was a fantastic long that I took here this was against the single prins and and yesterday’s halfback and just had a fantastic reaction multiple contracts multiple 10 pointers I was set up real nicely I knew after this trade I would be trading small for the rest of the day I did this in what six accounts for the rest of the day I’m trading One account at a time I am deleveraging why it’s Friday it’s OPEC Friday it’s the OPEC Friday before a holiday it’s Opex Friday before a holiday in fomc trade small if at all uh I was really excited to see it come here I felt this is a fantastic place that price would defend and if I remember over here I’m trying to remember bouncing off its halfback as well I forget exactly but we had some Confluence on the higher time frames that’s not what this is about so let’s get started let’s go Candle by candle here um in the pre morning you have this now you also have this eight-point candle what is The Prudent decision it needs to bounce off two newly created levels so it bounced here or it could be newly created it can be anything but there was one bounce right here in my opinion on the eight-point candle we should wait for two bounces yep I’m on a three minute chart opening candles eight points so what do you do you stop you wait till it balances twice why do why do we have that rule pain pain like Mr T says pain so am I interested in this long right here no sir I’m not I would love for it to bounce I would consider that the first bounce so first Bounce has occurred on the 3 minute chart what have we left behind we’ve left behind this front side what about the breake level let’s come here well this is a breake level this is a tested breake level and let’s go back and mark this as the front side you could do it as the wick or the base your choice um do you have a backside here in a fair value GapFair Value Gap (FVG)A gap in price where there's an imbalance between buyers and sellers. Think of it as a zone price blew through so fast that it left a "hole" on the chart. Full entry → I don’t think you actually do I think that is the level let me zoom in here let me put on this it’s a backside a fair value Gap nope it’s already tested all right let’s hit candle replay so first bounce second bounce you could say hey I’m ready to trade wonderful let’s see what happens now in our group while we were doing Zoom here I said stay out of the way stay out of the way don’t trade don’t trade let’s see what happens here this is Opex Friday blah blah blah let’s watch what happens another eight-point candle I advise the group at this point one two three this is a perfect time to stop trading especially if you took this trade which a lot of people did and you’re up you’re done walk away from the chart say no to the chart this is telling us to stop you might want to say well I want to wait till there’s three eight point candles in rth okay so what reset here I need two more bounces I need two more bounces let’s see what happens oh there’s your third eight-point candle you are done trading for the day congratulations Capital preservation day you’re done you’re dismissed class over but let’s continue trading shall we what happens here what gets reset two bounces you can choose to ignore that if you want but I came up with that rule for a reason because it will save your bottom more times the KN now what happened here also ah rth low that’s yesterday’s low what are we looking for here I’m looking for a Breakin long why because dominant trend is North we were so close to the all-time highAll-Time High (ATH)The highest price ever. No resistance above here—uncharted territory. Price can run HARD at ATH. But also? Profit-taking can slam it back down. Full entry → today we were looking for Longs I wasn’t looking for shorts at all zero none if you are on Zoom you can verify that so we are looking now for a break-in trade we are looking for a break-in trade so what did we leave behind let’s look at this now I’m going to get rid of the single printsSingle PrintsA Market Profile term referring to a vertical area of price movement with very little volume or friction. Price should move through these areas easily—"easy move through them"—or come back to "fill" them. Full entry → don’t need it this is yesterday’s rth low okay you got this backside here this is the backside range that’s your backside range what’s your backup level this could be your backup level do you have a break level backup you do not have a backup level now we are vomiting down vomiting down vomiting down if you wanted to take this you certainly could but where’s your backup level so let’s do a little math here if you’re going to take this trade you got three points to here this is kind of something on a backup level three point three and a half if you go two points above that to five and a half are you willing to take five and a half stop lossStop LossYour "uncle point"—the price where you admit you were wrong and exit. ALWAYS use stops. Always. No stop = eventual account blow-up. Full entry → without a real backup level well that’s up to you or do you adjust your leverage do you adjust your Leverage what if price down here dances around and then starts lading up do you still want to take this short or do you want to take a short in a rapid move up there that’s how I would take this short if price rapidly moved up I would be interested in taking this short I did not take this short however I did not take this short in the group why I’m looking for Longs why we just did a liquidity grab on a on a daily low I’m looking for it to go up now dominant trend is up let’s drop down to um drop to one minute here now if you were interested in the first touch long that was it right there that would have been perfect entry for a long at least to go to the backside right there would have been a perfect entry long I would have considered this the first ladder I like the second and third ladders plus I know what we actually do have a backside here we got to contend with that you’d still be in your long you’d still be in your long that would be the optimal exit right there why because price is about to bounce back in your face maybe a little bit higher but price is about to get bounced back in your face most likely but once again I’m looking for the Breakin long that was the first ladder you could have taken it there’s the back side and there’s the backside bounce beautiful beautiful now this is gone and if you took that short awesome I know some uh one of the traders in our Zoom took it but now we got to get rid of that because that’s the break level that’s the backside range let’s go back to a three minute chart because I want to see what we’ve left behind what have we left behind here I got this front side here so most likely what’s going to happen happen cuz our levels do really really well what is most likely going to happen it’s going to bounce off here come down to this front side and bounce if you were on my zoom this morning tell me we did not say that put it in the comments below for me did we say that yeah we did let’s see uh candle went against you a little bit and then boom came back and it should bounce right here if you were interested in a 3 minute minute first ladder that’s your first ladder you already had your one minute you would have taken your profit right there I would not have went short there so what it bounced I love that it bounced I want every level to bounce even if I don’t take the trade but right here would have been your three minute long from the break-in trade of the liquidity grab all right let’s keep playing here so I can delete that um none of this is anything none of this is anything there’s nothing there for me there’s no levels there for me okay almost a double tap if you manage that with your stop at break even you’re still in this trade what are we leaving behind at this point um I’ve got this fair value Gap here I got a little something here Wick base all right I want to know do I get two candle clearance or do I just want to take a cotton entryCotton EntryAn aggressive entry that doesn't have the standard "two-candle clearance" confirmation. It's riskier and requires you to be confident you're with the trend. Full entry → long right here off this 30 I know I took that trade what did I’m over here looking I took it at um let me look at the times here it’s after the opening I must have took it in a different account nope I took it at 32 is where I took the long so I took a long somewhere in here it doesn’t matter let’s just watch the candles um okay now what is it doing what is price doing leaving a fair value Gap leaving a fair value Gap and obviously has this trend up from the liquidity grab should you be looking for a short heck no no this thing just did a liquidity grab off a daily time frame consider this High time frame where’s 15 to 25 points I’m just curious okay there’s 25 points this is kind of getting out of the range now where that level could bounce however this is a daily it’s not a 30 minutes so it’s probably a little bigger than that but I there’s no way I’m looking for a long here lading up string of fair value gaps it bounced off the backside it bounced off the front side and when it bounced off this backside how big of a bounce was it pretty decent but did we make new lows nope all right so right there would be an entry for me that’s why where I entered at 32 right there would be an entry for me I would consider this the second ladder all right we’re talking about following our trade staying in our trade now if you took this short why why are you taking that short do you have a backup level nope because this backup level is what this back level is already tested you don’t have a backup level so you could delete that level off your chart and go I’m not taking it why I don’t have a backup level if you’re long where’s an optimal exit right here at this daily high or just before it or you could do it at that break level if you wanted or you just keep following it and keep a lottery trade back see my video from um around noon about the points I made this morning and staying in a trade all right what did we leave behind well we’re leaving behind this structure now we’re leaving behind this structure here candle replay all right there would have been an optimal exit in my humble opinion we are now in a very parabolic type of move would you agree should you be shorting on top of a parabolic move no sir no no sir you don’t and now what I want to turn on I want to turn on my essentials up we’re at my stop trading so you’d have been in your long and you’re just following your long now here okay you’re following your long right here you’re at 10 points I would put my stop at 10 points and I’d get and if it got me out great if it continued great but now we are in the stop Trading Zone so you had stopped trading earlier by three-point candles but if you’re watching price action with us live you would have been looking for Longs you would have been in a long we call two different entries both entries worked really really well so this is New York lunch this a no trade zone it’s still honoring that trend line still honoring it my stop would now be here right underneath here if I didn’t take my 10 points which actually is at 10 points so uh really nice um what have we left behind well you’ve got this break level here now this meets all of our definitions do you have a backup level to take this long no but you certainly could you could cuz it’s a break level you just have a paper cut stop loss underneath it that’s all just have a little paper cut stoploss here okay now I’m pretty sure that’s within three ticks you’re either in the trade or now you have to mark this as tested and you want to be flat um nothing in a fair value Gap here on this kind of day you want to be super picky if you were interested in a muddy front side this would be your front side but do you have a backup level nope cuz the break is here so there’s no short there you have no backup level you got a muddy front side with a tested break no thank you and you’re in New York lunch no thank you it obviously worked but I’m still not taking it it’s already tested if anything you’re still in your long from down here if you got into your long here you really are following price and you’re very excited you’ve done very well you had perfect entry nice job okay first time we’re taking out a brake level here we’re in New York lch how excited am I to take this trade right here we’ve got to talk about that how excited are you to take this trade right here we just based up here all this time we’re now taking out a break level how excited am I to take this now it is against vwap and I promise you that’s where Pac was am I interested in taking that nope why number one it’s New York lunch number two are we now in a aggressive lading up sequence no we’ve went up we’ve Consolidated we appear to be reversing what does es like to do it likes to take out a high and takes out a low this is in the middle of the range right this is in the middle of the range here let’s just draw this box come on box we’ll draw this box here’s the middle of the range the middle of range a little a little bit lower but it’s in the middle of the range all right am I interested in taking this trade no way where’s my backup level let’s measure where is my first backup level 6 and a half points away now there’s lots of backup levels down here would I be interested in a long down here very very possibly why I got lots of backup levels so my long would be more closer to this 30 level not here let’s see what it’s going to do okay so you were given the gift of Break Even it went through your level and you’re going crap it comes back up just get out what should price do touch and go just get out I’d still be interested in a long here and you get to decide where would you want your long here you get to pick that so all of those levels are basically within seven points of each other um yeah yeah that’s a total take you take it here at this 31 level and you have all kind of backups and if it rips through and comes back you take the gift of Break Even who cares okay didn’t get there didn’t get there and this is where sometimes Traders will get themselves in trouble like see if I have just held on it made money so what get out at break even and wait for the next high probability trade you don’t hope anymore did it touch and bounce no it did not take make the gift to break even okay so this became a backside sorry I got to keep up this became a backside this became a backside um this is a backside and actually I took this trade I went short at 44 now I shorted the backup level cuz I actually went short 44 but if if you took this trade here you got the wick right here it went straight against you you have a backup level what’s what’s what is my plan here it went straight through this backside I honestly I I would have hoped it would have bounced here and I went oh well I missed it I was being greedy but it came to my level and I’m like okay cool I don’t mind trading the backup level because it was it’s a paper cut stoploss it’s a paper cut stopPaper Cut StopA very tight stop loss used in aggressive or high-volatility scenarios (like news events) to minimize risk to a tiny amount if the trade doesn't work immediately. Full entry → loss right there you were given the gift of Break Even again you were given the gift of Break Even again and here is where I took my gift of Break Even I was expecting a move it came back I’m out I’m out now you’re like George that was New York lunch yeah I tend to come back about this 12:30 30 minutes before the Silver Bullet hour so it still is in the red zone and the beautiful thing about the red zone is I know I should be trading small so I was up 87 points how many contracts do you think I traded here one with a paper cut stop loss and I traded the backup level does that make sense so you were given the gift to break even did it bounce off the backside no all it had was a reaction am I interested in shorting again no I have no levels I have no levels I have no backup levels there’s no backup levels you can say well this is a front side here well I here’s the backs side of that here’s the front side here and I’d go yeah did the backside bounce no do I want to take the front side no where’s my backup level even if that’s a front side where’s my backup level you do not have one there is no trade here all right let’s see what happens all right what got left behind all right if you got a wick and you got a body um you don’t really have a front side back side it’s a weird little setup here and you got vwap how well has vwap been respected today not very much not very much I’d remove vwap it gives me zero confidence when vwap is bouncing and being respected and it lines up with one of our levels I’m cool with that okay I had on the essentials because it’s my stop time I’m going to turn it back on for a second because it shows me my no trade zone that red box is my no trade zone all right candle candle candle we’re almost at my start time 1 o00 here all right now we’re at my we are at my uh beginning time so I come in here and I’ll look at this and I’ll go okay what just happened we took out this RT H High what do I expect to happen it to come back to pck is this a cool liquidity grab short back to pck that’s what I’m looking for at this very moment because I’m not in any trade that’s what I’d be looking for all right it’s lading up it’s lading up it’s lading up you’re not getting the comeback here so what I’m looking for now is a long I’m looking for a long off this and a long off here and I actually took this long at 51 I believe is where I took it um or was it 52 I think it was 51 right there was my entry at 51 so I went long there targeting the all-time high okay so we pulled back halfway through the range fair value gapping out of here come on give me this fair value gapping out of here good place to be long it got me out at break even I didn’t make anything on it but I tried I tried okay all right now it’s coming back into the range now I’m like okay maybe this was a liquidity grab short can I possibly find a way to get short to come back to Pac why it’s Opex Friday and and a lot of times it just finishes around Pock so that’s what I would be looking for now these levels are here they are here do you want to take them well and you actually have a break level right here as well so think about what happened let’s think about the reverse here it did a liquidity grab come back in not as nice as a liquidity grab but it definitely took the high come back in do I want to take the counter to that trade as far as a long coming back into the middle of the range is that the trade that you want to do is that in your trade plan does that excite you for it to make a new high it fails to ladder up off the backside and it comes back in am I interested in that no probably not if I did if I did um it would be small so tiny here and if it went through and came back I’m out at the gift to break even if I wanted to or you could say you know what I’m going to be greedier and let this thing come down here and then maybe I’m interested in along in the lower part of the distribution of the range let me throw up this where’s the lower part of the distribution right down here in this green zone so I’d be more interested in this long perhaps all right so this level did not develop really well kind of but it just didn’t balance it didn’t it didn’t keep going did it no it did not okay um I’m going to turn off the Essentials now all right turning around um oh those were backsides right there and I took the wick okay so I I took this comeback Wick it’s now tested so this backside here this backside here it’s already tested that’s some kind of middle backside with this little front and I’ll tell you when I took this 51 I knew I had that level and this level so this was sorry this was my backup level to this long come on right here this was the backup level so this was my entry this would have been in my backup level okay so if this level’s here where’s your backup level you don’t have one it’s not an entry if you don’t have a backup level don’t count it as an entry because it’s not an entry why there’s no backup level okay okay boom eighto candle now I do want you to note vomited through here and the reason why I have this drawn here is cu right here you got an eight-point candle it went red immediately now this is Opex FR this is a freaking 18-point candle okay sometimes it happens if you took this long here I’m okay with it because you had a backup level just recognize you went long in the middle of the range after it did a liquidity grab and come back in very interesting so you could have took taken this and just suffered a loss it happens it happens welcome to trading now this is the fourth three point I mean eight-point candle you should have quit way over here so if you took that as a as a trade and you took a loss I get it but the eight-point alert went off right here don’t know if You’ have had enough time to adjust but I wouldn’t have had an order setting there anyway I would want to go for a greed entry here so I if I was to go long I would have taken this and suffered this and then when it got back to here what am I going to do I’m gonna take the gift of break even and right there gave me the gift of Break Even when it did that oh well I’m out what did it do it deleted this line deleted this line deleted this line whoops deleted this line deleted this line this was on a one minute level removed now there is no nothing to stop this thing from going and taking out that low does that mean you know what I mean so here you are now 10 minutes before Power Hour the final 30 minutes you had this big candle on Friday OPEC Friday before holiday on Monday before fomc and two trading days do you want to continue trading do you want to continue trading you can I hope you’re up really nicely and you’re betting very small let’s say you only at Five Points on the day you’re done be content move on should you be trading funded accounts here no if you don’t have any evals you’re done okay let’s press play no level development but what’s happening it left this behind it’s not going up there and getting it I’m targeting here now I’m looking for a reason for this thing to come in and I can get short which I did by the way so that’s why I know because that’s what I was looking for I’m was looking for a short here if we got a push down and it came back to a level that was my requirement okay we’re getting a little push another push awesome now I’m starting to look at my backside my backside level I love that it left this I love it I love it I love it there’s a little bit of a fair value Gap here love it oh love it and I went short right here 23 I had two candle clearance it came back up I FR ran it why I had two backup levels then my out was going to be there I’m up 87 points can I suffer I forget was it Five Points yeah can I suffer Five Points yeah I can do that on this why because I was targeting this low here I was hoping it made it um I made five points on it is what I made on it that was my final trade here let me screenshot this so there there was my trade I went short 23 at 251 9 minutes before not a great time to be trading eighto candle but luckily it goes in your direction right then that’s it for the day I mean it’s it’s it it’s done and then it takes the liquidity at the very very end so that’s a replay of this day I hope that was helpful if you’d like to do this tomorrow morning with me let me know and I’ll give you the link to sign up for the price action Workshop you’ll get the last two price action workshops we did and we have two more to do live on Saturday mornings at 10:00 a.m. eastern Stay Green my friends and to learn more about our group go to micr [Music] trader.com
Video Training 2: Member Only Training
all right any questions about the week or any questions about what we’re doing does anyone have a day that they would prefer me to review um anything the floor is open there’s Carlos so Carlos I was literally just asking the group if anyone had first of all good morning and if anyone had any questions if there was a you specifically wanted me to review if there was a trade you took this week that you wanted reviewed um the floor is open for anything like that and if not um if I hadn’t did the candle by candle of this of yesterday for the group and I put on YouTube I’ll I’ll keep it on YouTube for a little bit then I’ll move it to an listed a private setting but it gives people a little insight into what we do um so we would have done this day but I did it last night so I encourage you to go watch that video hook me up with some sort of comment or something um I took the same one you took Wednesday where I did everything wrong was is is this Wednesday no it’s Thursday Thursday oh wednsday where I took the full loser not recognizing [Music] um once again me not recognizing that high time frame level and liquidity grab Breakin trade yep um this was a this was a mistake on my part and mainly it’s because of those 30 minute levels so just to go back and Us’s look at that for one second um so my big I took a full loser this week for no reason other than I’m GNA blame I was trading at the wrong time and my tiredness that won’t happen again I won’t violate my trading rules again as far as time or day I don’t care how bad I want to trade so all of these very clear 30 minute levels these should be orange I’m not signifying the strength of these levels appropriately here these are all orange you know and one of the trades that we’re constantly on the lookout for are the Breakin trades so on this day price pushed down and I did not have these levels marked and that cost me cuz otherwise I’d have went long look at those and they’re all within they’re all within five points of each other are you kidding me you don’t get that setup often where you got one you got three 30 minute levels within five points of each other that was golden I should have crushed that day but did not so um but you can see when you are in a strong uptrend and one day this will be reversed it’s been a long time since it’s been reversed when you’re in a strong uptrend what does price typically want to do grab liquidity go up grab liquidity go up grab liquidity go up and when you’re in that uptrend we have to to be very that is the trade we’re looking for cuz the uptrend is number one right it is number one the downtrend is number two you know and as long as you’re in this strong uptrend you’ve got to look for that trade here it was here it was here it was um and there’s no reason I shouldn’t have been long here but I played all of these other ones perfectly um but that’s important okay so let’s go look at this if no one has a day they want to look at I want to go back and play this day because I thought it offered some subtleties that deserved um our attention so what would what would we be marking here well we’d be marking uh the Asia overnight low we’d be marking the London low the London High let’s go to a 30 minute chart so we’re doing this day was there any 30 minute levels here that we might want to denote um 30 minute fair value Gap um overnight low on the Asian a 30 minute fair value Gap nothing else on a higher time frame now going into this day no we had something along this line marked out hey you got the rth Asia London are um stacking above it the play is longer flat this actually would have been more in here and do and let’s go look to see was there a news event on Wednesday let me go look at that next so whenever you go back and you do days you want to make sure that you are looking um at the news events as well so this day was Wednesday there was nothing so that is not an issue all right so let’s go back to this day and let’s go Candle by candle um I want to turn this now actually I need to mark this as the London overnight [Music] low and London overnight High be thorough on your markings don’t ever get sloppy on it it will cost you and then you’ll learn oh I should be thorough let’s go to replay here so when the Market opens here look at this first thing you’re going to say is whoa so London took out its high and its low before the market opened all right caution to the wind um caution to the wind and it’s below here let’s do this real quick from here to Oh wrong tool wrong tool George let’s go with this one oh oh I forgot I change the box so here’s the mid I was looking for the overnight halfback so overnight halfback is right there oh over night half back okay perfect all right so it’s already retraced the middle of the range it’s down now towards the bottom of here if you’re to look at this where would you say price is most likely going to come next well what did it do it took the liquidity up here so now it’s probably going to seek liquidity either here or here so it’ll be interesting to see okay let’s go let’s go Candle by candle now uh what was left behind here is there anything of significance that you would want to Mark well uh there’s no break level because that’s the break level so that bad boy is tested [Music] um same thing here tested tested tested um is there any thre minute levels that you might want to mark that seems prominent I’d mark this that and probably that if I wanted to dial it in all of that looks right to me and there’s is there anything up here I’d want to mark no because I wouldn’t have a backup level so who cares if this is a front side base or front side Wick are you going to trade that no so I wouldn’t mark it all right here we go Candle by candle let me come over here and go and I want to make sure we have on the coloring of our Candles there we go so what do we got a point candle this is the fourth eight-point candle in the last half hour oh this is Thursday I was like that’s not making a whole lot of sense so Thursday so I’m glad I corrected myself I’m like that doesn’t look right I was looking at the wrong day for news on this day Thursday here I’m gonna slide it over Thursday you had all those news events one hour before the Market opening so that was retail sales unemployment all that now that makes sense I was like that’s weird of all that action where there’s no news there was news I looked at the wrong day no big deal you make the correction um so yeah we need to let some things calm down here all right candle replay all right now I would consider this the first bounce because this is a front side I’m not going to take it but look at that look look how still perfect that is but I’ve seen too many times if I don’t have a backup level I get crushed so I just don’t trade levels that don’t have backup levels my opinion your mileage may vary but how gorgeous is it to see that bounce does that give you any confidence to today four uh eight-point candles but it bounced off this little front side that’s pretty cool so that would I would consider that the first bounce um you don’t have two CLE clearance for that level but you do have two candle clearance for this level ideally we’d like to see it bounce here for a second bounce another a-point candle so the counting of the balances start over Okay that’s when you’re done for the day that’s where the when not to trade you go you know what I don’t know if I want to trade this you can still watch it you know to your quitting time but at this point You’ got to be going and another eight point candle but it bounced look at that this is why you can trade an eight-point candle land but it’s scary and what do you do when you di when you uh are trading in an eight-point candle land you trade smaller because if you’re right it’s going to be a beautiful bounce this is aggressive price action so just because it’s eight-point candles doesn’t mean I personally stop trading but I have learned that if you want to be in the safe safest environment the land of eighto candles is very difficult but we’ve seen two perfect bounces in these candles okay just you know how I in this morning’s post I said don’t treat every day the same don’t treat every hour the same don’t treat every entry the same and I think that’s one place that some Traders have a difficulty of how do I manage that well that’s our job um so if I’m going to trade in the C of eight point candles it’s the smallest leverage for me um so that’s the first bounce beautiful all right let’s see nothing nothing nothing nothing all slop and chop all slop and chop nothing nothing okay if it bounces off the overnight high I would count okay so first bounce another eight-point candle hold on is this right did I change my settings oh I sure did did we might have to start over cuz I was like I don’t remember that many eighto candles all right we’re going to start over we’re GNA start over I was like gosh I don’t remember that many eight-point candles but if it was that’s how I would view it so what I did so let me just have that quick discussion so what I did actually I need to CH yeah is um I was playing with what should be the warning on a one minute chart that’s what I was playing with there so let’s start over rewind so now we’ve had one eight-point candle that makes me feel better still have this front side but do you have a backup level no so we’re still going to play it but now we got to pay attention to the that these are not eight-point candles Perfect Balance so I would consider that the first uh do we bounce off anything down here real quick all right I would call that the second bounce yeah this is a beat up break level but it bounced and this bounced here so I would consider that the two bounces from this eight-point candle we are clear to trade got it now I’m dialed in you have two candle clearance you have this do you have a backup level you actually don’t so if you take this trade I’m not telling you not to take it but don’t let it you know wreck your day and so what do you do you do it smaller if I don’t have a backup level but I want to take the trade why would I want to take the trade the trend is up the trend is up that’s why I would want to take the trade and you do it with one contract and then what’s the goal well if it starts lading I can add to my position I would add to to my position so I would take that trade the smallest leverage ah didn’t get me in and let’s measure are we within three ticks now no but it’s right there at a point Bo I’ll tell you in all of my analysis I I had a hard time deciding whether three ticks was tested or four ticks was tested so you’ve got to decide now whether or not for yourself is one point tested or three ticks I settled on three ticks um but it’s something I measure every time because it just reinforces my rule to me like here I’m G to look at this and go okay at one point does it rip through my level do I need to take that data into future trades okay none of those are traded if you took that entry there you know once again smallest why no backup level it was within one point point of being tested does that mean it was tested um how much did that bounce I I’m just curious how much that little oh well that was one point I already know and candle replay and right there I’m probably out right I’m not going to survive a double tap on a three minute chart I just know it so oh well break even we’re going nowhere we’re not leaving anything behind we’re not leaving anything behind that’s the overnight high do you want to take that short in an uptrend you can it’s a paper cut loss smallest leverage if you’re right you want it to ladder and you can add to your position so counter small no backup paper cut stop loss with the hopes of adding because what hasn’t happened well it did take this liquidity here it’s trying this again yes this could be the breakout and you lose your butt but it hasn’t grabbed anything down here um you know that’s something we’re always on the lookout for all right let’s keep going so if you took that trade uh you probably took half that distance whatever that was because it came right back yeah so you made two or three points you’re out boom you knew it was counter you’re counting your lucky stars but you did it small no big deal touched and bounc perfect um so by the way what’s happened so far Perfect Touch and bounce here Perfect Touch and bounce here Perfect Touch and bounce here is this the type of day you’re excited to trade yes zero heat touched and bounced to Perfection these are the easy days it doesn’t mean you’re GNA make a lot you can because they’re all touch and go but this is beautiful I love this all right go okay rejected off the overnight high again where’s it most likely running down here so what have we got to be saying to ourselves here what are we looking for I’m looking for either in London overnight low or Asia overnight low liquidity grab come back in Dro in time frames look for a long to continue the dominant Trend that’s what we’re really looking for all right let’s keep going what did we leave behind well we got a front side here but you have no backup level right just a beat up break level like crazy if price is going to go through there it’s probably going to go through there easily it’s already tested the overnight high it’s already grabbed that liquidity this is prime to be ripped through so you might draw that but you might go I don’t want to take it we’re gonna leave it on the chart just for thoroughness okay nothing nothing nothing nothing nothing nothing nothing and now we’re at my quit time I’d be done so if I took that trade that trade and that trade they were all no heat small content morning it should be a small content morning look at the SLO and chop oh well you move on so this is now quitting time all right nice push down love the front side here not two candle clearance yet so I denote that okay now you got two candle clearance now it’s grabbing the London low 30 minute fair value Gap bounced back up now the Nuance you’ve got do we have a backside and a fair value Gap no and here’s the wick we have nothing yet there’s nothing I can Mark yet candle replay all right so what do we need to be looking for here let’s see if we can drop to a one minute I don’t care about the candles here so we just did a liquidity grab fair value gapped back up and left a volume imbalanceImbalanceWhen there's significantly more buying than selling (or vice versa) at a price level. This creates pressure. Persistent imbalance in one direction? Full entry → here so couple positive signs there if you wanted to be in first ladder your long is there let’s see what happens um okay you would have had to front run that now let’s talk about this for a second and I should have mentioned this right before that you have this Fair fair value Gap as I’ve talked about when there’s a fair value Gap in front of a level you can choose to play this side you can choose to play the middle or you can choose to play your level how aggressive do you want to be on a first ladder I’m not going to be that aggressive I’ll be honest um typically I’m not however you’re with the trend could you do it small sure you going to get hurt no you know let’s say you did it right there on the edge of this yeah I mean within two points uh would have been your paper cut stop loss my opinion but first bounce use those fair value gaps if you want to help you enter the fact it doesn’t complete the fair I actually it did complete the fair value Gap but if it doesn’t complete the fair value Gap that’s more evidence of the strength of trend up all right let’s keep watching so far we’re like okay first ladder would have worked come on G do I want to take that trade now no that was probably within three ticks yep so I’d have to consider that level bounced so I’m just watching I’m still looking for evidence of laddering up if you did take that long you only made whatever that 50% of that move would have been um we’re still on a one minute chart there’s a bit of a front side if this thing pops up it should I don’t know it should bounce off here and come here right then maybe that’s your long let’s take a peek it didn’t go up but it bounced there now that level’s tested I’m not sure I would have taken that long that would have been a cotton entry what you call a cotton entry where there was no two candle clearance but it touched the level and bounced and then I would have made nothing I would have been out of course this is New York lunch let’s remember okay that level is now tested that is certainly within three ticks right and you go dang it I wish I’d have taken my long down here oh well but that’s what we’re looking for we’re looking for the liquidity grab come back in let me go to a three minute chart um one second guys I’m G to change something on my stream deck to make this a little easier on me XL candle replay let me move that over to here and oh well I’m just GNA I’m just going to have to deal with it I don’t have any more buttons on that page so in a three minute where do we looking at nice and strong that looks a little different on three minute doesn’t it let’s go back to a one minute is there anything at this thing pulled back I could lean on to go long nothing nothing there’s nothing I would lean on what about you yeah I don’t think I have anything there guys that I would lean on I just know I’m not taking the short I hope it bounces just because you want every one of your levels to bounce because that means I should keep trading now we’re getting fair value gapping candles up dang it so this also shows you the power of what it does a liquidity grab it does this type of move back into range that maybe you can be a little more aggressive on your entry as far as two candle clearance um I mean you want to do it on a legit level that you could defend that’s that’s for trueth now we’re back now we’re up here in the upper distribution it’s hard for me to want to go long here unless it breaks out and ladders over the overnight High that’s what I would be looking for now it’d be back to just watching you do have a tiny front side here you wanted to be aggressive you could be against Trend against that and your out should probably be just under Trend so let’s pretend we take this entry here there’s your out um and as I said now we’re in the middle of the range we’re in the upper distribution it’s tough but we’ll just look at it see if we could have done it uh now what’s interesting is it went through and it came back to what it gave the gift a break even you see that and typically on these levels if you have perfect entry and it goes against you from everything I’ve seen that’s about 98% of the time you could get out at break even and that’s why when price goes right against me I try to do that I didn’t do that on my loser this week did I nope I was presented break even three times now we got fair value Gap and volume and balance here and your New York lunch still this is why I don’t trade New York lunch it just never works out well for me but you had your gift to break even there boy still following trend line pretty well let’s go back to three minute chart am I missing anything you got this one little front side here this was within three ticks tested yep so this is nothing but it’s bouncing good all right let’s keep going to Candle replay here this is just you’re in the middle of nothing you’re right at Pac 100% Pac is right here six points somewhere here six points to somewhere down here that’s what I’m looking for where would be my long I would be interested in if we could do that type of deal that’s the long I’m looking for if it came back down here on the Asia overnight low I’d be looking for a Breakin trade why dominant trend is up it’s better to be looking for Longs than shorts in general boy just can’t buy anything um you know just to have this discussion because this hurt just in this week and I was going to go find his comment he said I don’t mind muddy uh backsides I do see this blue candle it’s blocking that backside so it’s not a backside it’s already tested it and went up so I like those in a fair value Gap and if you insist your to be in a fair value Gap you know it’s a real level there’s no worrying about Muddy or not if it’s in a fair value Gap it’s clean it’s clean all right obviously lading up boy been aggressive down here you’d have done well then this probably got you out it’s just life boy testing again up there you do have a little bit of a front side here I’d like to see that bounce I’m not taking that as a trade and was that within three ticks out of curiosity three ticks exactly I would consider it tested I would not have front ran that there’s no way I’d have been in that trade and you just go oh well I missed it now what I now what would I be excited to see can we ladder and make this a fair value Gap so you have two choices here at this moment you got to say Okay I want to be in a long here so if this comes back you take a cotton long immediately you don’t wait for candle clearance you don’t do anything and you have a paper cut stoploss that is a possible option here or you could be more greedy and say I want to see at least two candles and then it comes back that’s a safer bet you get to decide does one trade deserve a different leverage than the other trade my opinion yes all right so let’s pretend we’re going to do the cotton entry here um you don’t really have any backup levels so you want to have like just a tiny little stop loss now something to note here we just turned did we one o’ nope it’s still never mind Silver Bullet done start to 1,400 over here okay never mind all right would not have gotten me in on a cotton entry now we got fair value gapping um and a volume inbalance I would still take the long oh well oh well and that’s where I go oh well now you got to say if it came back now would I want to go long well I’ll tell you there’s there’s a point where it just goes too far that when it comes back now has Trend reversed or is it just retesting a level does that make sense is it at some point when it starts coming back it’s being rejected not just retesting a level and going does that make sense um but it would still count so you know you can still mark this it would be an end of the day marking for sure um um the only thing I would add where’s your backup level and if you don’t have one that’s okay you just change your leverage you’re with Trend you’re with a breakout this is now deleted let’s see what happens I honestly don’t know I didn’t look at the day that closely ah if you really wanted to be long there’s your entry there ‘s your entry you have you do have two candles you didn’t get a full backside clearance but there’s your entry if you wanted to beong one of those two levels your outs underneath it is it clean clear crisp with two C does it me meet every definition no so when it doesn’t meet every definition what do you do you lower your leverage I wouldn’t be shorting this what wouldn’t I be doing you’re not shorting what’s happened here at this point point one could say cuz I would say did we just go parabolic you don’t want to short above a parabolic my humble opinion but I’d go long here with my out uh probably under this little candle right here probably right here small so it wouldn’t hurt me I’m with Trend I’m on a breakout it pulled back to a level cotton would say that’s an entry all right let’s hit candle you were given the gift a break even weren’t you I take it man it went through my level it came back take the gift to break even and then it came down and got and would have got your stop if not that’s how I would play that I knew I took a more risky entry that did not meet all my parameters I did it small it went through my level then I took the gift of Break Even who cares it didn’t bounce and go who cares now what’s happening you gota go okay I got a front side here although that was already tested [Music] um are we breaking [Music] parabolic all right what’s happening okay that’s within three ticks tested that would be removed I would not be taking the short if why this would be first ladder let’s say it did break the parabolic it was going to come down this is first ladder first ladders are what risky so if it’s risky what should you do if you’re going to take it small with a paper cut stop loss okay where’s the paper cut stoploss it’s above this wherever you want it to be so your entry would be here so you could literally use a three to four point stop loss you could do it small first of all you know it’s counter it did break this parabolic trend line let’s put this back let’s just see what happens but first ladder adjust accordingly okay so it touched bounced went against you came in is your choice what do you do here now it’s went through there three times did it touch and bounce that’s always my judge did it touch and bounce no it touched and react it had a reaction so my goal would have been out at break even because first of all it was counter if you were more stubborn than me and you kept your stop at the Four Points you’re still in there’s no perfect way to do it you got to trade based off how it affects you emotionally if taking that loss would hurt you emotionally for like I sound so weak but you know what I mean then first of all you shouldn’t have taken it uh but secondly um you got to do what works well for you I’d rather take the gift to break even that’s me and say okay I’ll wait for my second setup because here’s how I’m thinking about it okay it came up it grabbed that liquidity are we going to now push in and give me a second ladder I’m okay with that no problem I can re-enter it’s not as great of a price but there’s more confirmation my opinion the trade would have end up making even if you’d have held it that long you’d have been out for nothing just happened so the parabolic is broken but the primary trend line is still holding okay did we take out a break level so there’s two things that I like to look for there does it take out the parabolic and what’s the next one did it take out a break level yesterday or the other day some of you guys were going short and it hadn’t taken out a break level yet yeah it broke the parabolic but y’all were fighting the shorts when it couldn’t take out a break level who knows maybe it was this day I don’t even know but you were fighting it because it couldn’t take out a break level same thing here it has not taken out a break level back let’s just draw that in there now we have a clear break level we have a clear break level here how interested are you in this long at this point I’m not that interested at all why because are we getting backside development up here no what happens when you consistently not getting backside development it’s either going to grind horribly and it’s the most boring thing ever or it’s going to rip your face off so no backside development no backside development it barely it barely took it and then it came all the way back to the break level that’s actually a long right there actually a long but we were talking about the break down there cuz it did break the parabolic all right let’s keep playing all right now what are we looking at well I’m going to now start measuring how much time are we here we’re in hour where’s an hour and a half an hour and a half’s right here so at an hour and a half I’m already thinking is this going to be a reversal box situation how excited would I be for these Longs zero nada that’s just me I’m grading it based off the quality of the entry and if I want it how much leverage should I have geez all right now you’re at an hour and a half this is grindy now oh well I I I’m just typically not in these type of trades on this sloppy grindy move day I typically will remove myself from the chart because I hate it that much oh I love these days here now this is the advantage look at this if you could have taken your long down here and this Wick right here didn’t get you out or this is where you got in or this is where you got in or this backside I don’t know if I would have taken that um would have gotten you in well if you got in way down here great and that’s what I say about these slow grind days like this when it starts doing that I’ve got to be in early if I’m not in early I don’t want to trade that anymore I’m just out oh well I missed the boat that’s me you might be different but I feel like I missed the boat now I got some kind of backside here but it’s not pretty no it’s not pretty it’s some something though if you really wanted to be long that’s your entry there to there you know one contract twoo stop loss is never going to hurt anybody that’s not going to ruin your day ruining your day is it goes against you and you keep freaking adding that ruins your day single contract two or three point stop loss that’s it’s no big deal you could totally do that here without a doubt But realize that what you’re seeing here is pretty grindy and come pulls way back so you better be willing to take some heat your stop should probably be under this trend line my humble opinion okay there would be your entry it went to the greedier part did a little bounce that is not necessarily get out at break even but now that would be for me it went against me too far me you might have your stop under the um here and you’re hoping right there you’re giving the gift of Break Even again just take it it didn’t touch and bounce but this is also doing this here is doing exactly what all this was and this is why I can’t trade this very well I don’t this is just me personally I don’t trade that very well I’d be out of break even and this thing is probably gonna keep going oh well um the only way I can play these things is I have to look where’s the greediest possible place price could go and I can’t find one so I don’t have a a greedy level trade or you know cotton says they’re not entries trend line that’s pretty greedy you know what I need to look at that on these more grindy moves here if I don’t have a level do I trade the trend line if I want to be long small two or three points under it that’s an interesting thought this is why these replays are good because I haven’t really thought about that on these grindy pullback grind up days where it just keeps going it’s a slow locomotive and you’re not going to stop it where’s my entry you know another way to look at at a at this type of trade you can enter here I’m just going to say 1 Mees with a 10-point stop loss am I willing to risk 10 points let this whippy grindy thing work its way out and get up here or do I just take a 10-point stop loss and move on how does that work for your psyche but I do like this idea of maybe on these back and forthy grindy days maybe trading the trend line let’s watch that guys in the next coming weeks let’s watch that all right candle replay where are we um it closes at 3 my time so that’s 416 okay okay here all right a little bit more on the day now you’re like okay so leing a fair value Gap front side here and we’re attacking this trend line again okay this is tested everything’s tested below us here until this level could I possibly have a short that takes me from here to down here maybe it’s total counter I got to see something to break probably not all right now that’s fair value gapping out what is the next can and now you go okay are we breaking this level I have a front side here and now I have a backup level though well that’s tested technically but there’s still a little fair value Gap so there’s a little strength to this because of the fair value Gap so if I wanted to go short I’d go short right there against Trend it broke it that is a level that is at a volume inbalance as well it may not make it all the way up there if this is a stronger downtrend it won’t make it all the way I have no clue what it’s going to do we’re just analyzing it okay there would have been my entry who knows if I’d have stayed probably not I’m probably out that’s just me other people I know could have easily stayed in um but there’s that entry right there that makes sense small though it wouldn’t hurt me and even and so somebody probably and once again what’s happening it can’t take out a break level we can’t take out a darn break level geez that’s gone if you did take that short it went against you it gave you the gift to break even I’m telling you when those trades go against me I’m pretty aggressive about that break even that’s just me personally liquidity grab there come back oh day is over okay day’s over you know one thing when we’re doing this that I’m not very cognizant of and maybe I need to create a little indicator thing that’ll put vertical boxes for me where’s the Silver Bullet hour where’s the final hour where’s the New York lunch and a very light shaded area to be a little more cognizant of where we’re at by time one of the things that’s difficult when you’re doing this is where am I by time I mean I tried the best I could to stay there but another lesson dominant uptrend liquidity grab drop in time frames look for Longs because I want to be long early let’s scroll here let’s let’s do this real quick let’s turn this off so same thing happened here off this daily low yesterday then you look for for Longs in here somewhere right there is your first ladder you didn’t you might have gotten a second ladder there depending on how aggressive you wanted to be let’s look at that because you’d have had your backside here um I don’t think that’s a fair value Gap so if you wanted to be aggressive there you’d had to front run that but now you’re seeing the nice bounce and here’s the bounce off the front side you know these first ladders can be great but I also see the first ladders a lot of times no one would have been surprised right here let’s look at this let’s look at this chart here vomit a little something vomit a little something nobody would have been surprised if that would have vomited through so if you take the first ladder small with a little stop loss pick one of these candles and just go underneath that for your stop if you’re going to be on the first ladder I prefer the second Ladders because to me that’s confirmation that we’re in a real move does that make sense guys I need to run to the restroom real quick I’ll be back okay so now I’m going to ask for questions and I’m going to ask you a question too the question I’m going to ask you is where do you feel your biggest struggle on the chart is right now where’s your sticking point that maybe we can have a little discussion about so any questions and if you have any you’d want to discuss about where’s your stick sing point on the charter trading it’s hard to see it live you know this morning’s post I put in the group is take it to heart when should I be trading when I shouldn’t be trading not every hour is the same not every day is the same um you know morning versus lunch versus afternoon those are different should I be trading different leverage based off those times should I be removing myself off the chart from those times getting rid of the C and D trades will do tremendous for your uh success you know like Opex Friday is that a day you know after seeing that today what I would encourage people to do is go back I guess I deleted my sessions um go back and maybe look at the last 10 Opex Fridays that’s the third Friday of every month and you might go back and look at those and go yeah that looks like a great day I’m going to take off um and build a little inventory of days that you don’t like um and just say hey those are my vacation days that’s my day from not staring at the chart confidence in a rejectionRejectionRejection is the opposite of acceptance. It occurs when price is quickly pushed away from a level, often leaving tails or single prints behind. Full entry → versus retest when grabbing leverage confidence and a reject versus retest when grabbing liquidity okay confident and a reject so is and I don’t know maybe I’m GNA ask it a different way is this a Breakin or is this going to be a breakout is that what maybe you’re saying okay um well the only way I know it’s a Breakin is I look for the liquidity I drop in time frames and I like the second ladder to me the second ladder gives me some sort of confirmation if I don’t get the second ladder um and I’m sure there’s I know there’s a thousand examples where this first ladder failed the first ladder failed um in fact let’s pretend this was the liquidity graph fair value gapping up fair value gapping up fair value gapping up um somewhere in here might have been a level but actually this would have been the level right this might have been something in either case did the first ladder bounce nope they went right through that’s the danger of the first bounce this would have SA saved you of saying I’m waiting for the second ladder and when it ripped through well you went okay now it’s done that what’s going to happen here okay it bounced off the first one now I’ll take the second one um the other way to kind of help a little bit too I don’t know if this helps it but you know you look at this and you go okay okay is this one little wave down second wave down third wave down how many wave Downs do we typically get three to five so we’re right here on the edge so was the third wave down plus it grabbed a high time frame liquidity it did the first ladder okay I can do the second one so for me second or third ladder shows confirmation I rarely take the first one um one of the things I’m personally going to start looking at um let me load back up my sessions I deleted it I really wish they would fix that or you can’t delete a um there it is is here let me go to a 10-minute chart I want to boom this up so this was a liquidity grab off a daily low does this give me more confidence to take the first ladder versus it’s just a liquidity grab off of a like a London loow you know this case doesn’t prove it because that was strong and that was strong right but that’s something for myself that I need to start noticing is on the break-in trade is it better if it’s off a rth or any of these sessions are okay while you’re in a dominant Trend the do dominant Trends important because who knows we might have six weeks of straight down and we’re talking about the opposite now to where the liquidity grab is taking something to the north it comes up here and grabs this and then pulls in because we’re in a down we’re in a constant downtrend I will say I made a couple notes last night [Music] um weekly what did I miss what did I miss hold on I go to I got to look something here if you don’t mind’s go back to the trading floor oh well I gotta go back and is that on my monthly weekly daily huh I don’t know okay oh well I need to go back and investigate that further okay so any other question or um something that’s sticky for you so maybe one little exercise for you Warren today is to just go pick some place on the chart and go back and and look where rth grabbed a liquidity and like here’s one they grab the liquidity here let’s let’s zoom into that um go here go three minute let’s go one minute so it actually grab the liquidity oops I hate when I do that um contrl Z come on go back go back okay let’s go back and find that again and let’s come back to here let’s just look at all that let’s go a thre minute all right so in this particular case it grabbed liquidity here came up and then kept going down you go oh well nothing happened and then it grabbed liquidity here and then when you as soon as you get this fair value Gap candle back up that’s when you got to start saying okay let’s drop in time frames let’s see if I’m seeing evidence let’s see if I get a second ladder and in this case it just went straight up and it went straight up and you weren’t able to get in it came up here to this three minute break level and bounced and hung out so that happens but you wait for it you you’re like okay I saw it right I was looking for the right things it just didn’t get me in there and at some point it runs too far and you’re like okay let’s see what happens and then it’s typically going to base before it decides what it’s going to do next no big deal you were looking for the right thing you were looking for the right thing here it didn’t happen and then you were looking for the right thing here and it just didn’t get you in oh well so maybe that might be a little exercise for you is to go back and look for those rths that grabbed liquidity and what did it do like this one here it grabbed this liquidity but then it just did nothing oh well you didn’t get in the trade there was no trade but you didn’t get hurt either up here’s one grabbed a London liquidity Dro in time frames go look at this day um did not grab liquidity did not grab liquidity I’m just curious now cuz did not grab liquidity oh I hate those days because then because then when it doesn’t grab the liquidity I don’t really know what to do I’m expecting it to grab it those are hard trading days for me well this took liquidity and then kept vomiting um so obviously there was nothing there and then it didn’t grab this liquidity and it just turns around on something I don’t know what you could probably go investigate it and find that level that it bounced off of but it bounced off something all right guys I think that’ll do it for the morning I’ll get this uploaded and sent to you um I wanted to do that day simply because of the liquidity grab and run up um because we keep when we’re in that uptrend we keep seeing that and one day this will turn to a downtrend and we’ll see it the other direction and we need to be attuned to looking for that trade all right my man I’ll see y’all later
