Tuesday July 8, 2025
Opening Remarks
Welcome to the AM briefing video presented by microtrader.com, where together we trade better. Good morning!
This week’s scripture is James 1:12:
“A man who endures trials is blessed because when he passes the test he will receive the crown of life that God has promised to those who love him.”
Tip of the Day
Today’s tip is to keep a runner back for those rare bell-to-bell days or multi-day runs. If you had been long two weeks ago and kept your runner behind the RTH low each day in a cash account, you would have had a two-week runner. The beautiful thing about a cash account is that there are no restrictions—no PDT rule to worry about.
Essay Format Questions
- Which day had the clearest structure?
- How would you rate yesterday as far as clear structure?
- Did you take advantage?
Pre-Market Context and News
I’ll be live today 15 minutes before the market opens on the ES chart. You can join us as a group for a free trial.
As for news drivers, it’s a super light week and day. Tariff-related developments will likely rule the session, so please be careful.
Reviewing Yesterday’s Core Strategy Setups
Let’s dive into yesterday’s basic core strategy setups. During the Sunday live stream, we mapped out a short entry at 15. Unfortunately, that setup didn’t trigger until 20 hours later, but it did eventually play out. Patience is key.
When the market opened, it was ugly. In yesterday’s AM briefing, I even recommended skipping Monday trading altogether to let the market shake out. That said, we ended up getting a rare double distribution trend day down—proof that you never know what’ll happen.
We then had two advanced core strategy shorts, and James took one of those trades.
Trade Breakdown Using James’ Example
James will be our example today. While he was in his short trade, I shared three magnets with the group:
- The initial magnet for the mapped-out trade.
- A secondary magnet: the new week opening gap, specifically Friday’s close.
- The final target: the single prints—this was our mapped-out ultimate short target.
I recommended that traders with multiple contracts scale out along the way but keep a runner for the full ride down.
I treat shorts differently than longs. I don’t usually hold shorts over multiple days. Shorts for me are scalp-focused unless it’s a rare bell-to-bell short, which is what we got yesterday.
The final core strategy entry was the last short per my system. My own strategy recommends watching the first, second, and third ladders. I don’t like entering shorts after the third ladder. I told the group this was a spot where you could short with a one- to three-point stop loss depending on your entry. It would have worked well.
After that, I had no more short setups—I was just observing. We made it to the first magnet, then had a basic core strategy long, which turned out to be a loss.
Important Notes and Mental Trading
Two caveats:
- During Sunday’s open, I warned to be cautious with longs—don’t get stubborn. We were focused solely on shorts.
- It was New York lunch when we saw a 15-point tariff candle. That trade resulted in a full loss.
One key point: I did not take the 15-point short because I was preparing for the AM briefing, but mentally, I was still trading it. I frequently tell the group that I avoid entering counter-trades if I’m still mentally in a prior trade. That saves me a lot of trouble.
For example, if you were still trading that short in your mind, you wouldn’t even be considering a long setup—and that long ended up being a loss anyway. I didn’t even notice the failed long until later because I wasn’t looking for one.
Trend Line and Structure Review
We established a trend line early in the morning and respected it all day. Longs were considered counter-trend trades. Since I was mentally short-biased, I didn’t look for longs until we hit one of the magnets. I was looking for aggressive longs at that point and missed one by a tick on a lower timeframe.
It was a counter-trade, so I needed a strong reason to justify it.
Glossary of Key Terms
- RTH: Regular Trading Hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET)
- Single Prints: A market profile concept identifying thin auction zones that often act as magnets.
- New Week Opening Gap: The difference between Friday’s close and Sunday’s open.
Fibonacci and RTH Analysis
The market retraced 50% of the RTH session. It may not have appeared that way visually, but using the Fibonacci tool from high to low confirmed the 50% retracement. To me, this signaled that bulls still had control—even if the bears were active, they were still playing on the bull’s side of the court.
That’s why our battle plan trades last night were all longs. I noted in the battle plan: “Finally, a proper red day! It was beautiful.” The 15 short was mapped out with precision during the Sunday battle plan.
Performance and Complexity
I was very pleased with how that short played out. With disciplined execution and a focus on the single prints target, one could have captured a 50-point move.
In my opinion, no new shorts are warranted at this point—the trade already played out. Be cautious with longs too. Yesterday’s structure was complex, and rushing into anything would be a mistake.
Let the market come to you.
Overnight Action and Ladder Analysis
Overnight, we saw balanced trading and ended in the middle of the range. We revisited the new week opening gap and hovered around it. That’s not a spot to enter trades—you’re not at an edge.
Last night offered some aggressive long opportunities. Some traders find it hard to flip long after a strong short day. I mentioned I avoid shorting after the third ladder.
This is important: typically, you’ll see five to seven ladders on a strong short move. Yesterday had seven ladders in a 70-point drop down to the single prints. I always count ladders.
Can a move continue? Yes. On the long side, we’ve seen up to 12–15 ladders. But five to seven is more typical for shorts.
Current Market Conditions and Final Thoughts
NQ retraced the entire day and is now coming back in. We’re at halfback—nothing exciting here.
With no significant news drivers today, this could be the most boring day of trading ever. Still, we’ll be live this morning if you’d like to join.
We’ll map out and trade the setups as they present themselves. I’m not excited to trade inside the middle of yesterday’s range.
I hope you have a good day trading. I’ll see my traders live 15 minutes before the market opens.
Have a great day, stay green, and to learn more about our group, visit microtrader.com.
TRADING SESSION FAQ
Q: What is a double distribution trend day, and how should traders react to it?
A: A double distribution day features two distinct auction zones separated by a stretch of single prints. Traders should note the single prints as potential magnet areas rather than bounce levels.
Q: Why is the ladder count important when evaluating short setups?
A: Ladder counting helps identify exhaustion points in a trend. Most short trend days complete within five to seven ladders, making late entries after the third ladder riskier.
Q: Why avoid entering counter-trades while mentally committed to a setup?
A: Entering counter-trades can compromise focus and discipline. Staying aligned with a primary trade idea helps reduce impulsive losses and maintain structured execution.
ADDITIONAL LINKS:
- Day Traders Blog: Live Futures Commentary and AM Briefing Recaps
- CME Micro E-mini Equity Contracts – Product Overview
- CME Group Trading Simulator – Practice Futures Trading
- YouTube Community Tab – MicroTrader Announcements and Prompts
- AM BRIEFING Archive: July 8 – Live SP500 Room Prep for Emini & MES
- MES Micros Blog: Tuesday July 8 Live ES/MES Trade Prep Commentary
- Rumble Video: AM Briefing for Emini and MES Futures Traders
- YouTube Post: July 8 Trade Prep Notes from the MicroTrader Room
