Preparing ES Emini and MES Micros Traders
To Trade In Our S&P Trading Room

Transcript

Price Action Bounce Trading System. How To Scalp ES Emini or MES Micros Futures.

Helping Futures Traders Via Our Core Strategy Academy Training Program and Futures Trading Group – The Best Emini Group IMHO.

Welcome to the AM briefing, preparing you to trade live in our E-mini trading room at micrtrader.com. Good morning, good morning. Well, yesterday was Tuesday, and it was indeed the best trading day of the week, per our strict three-minute core strategy for the first three balance levels that I teach in our boot camp. It is our best day here. Let me just slide this over; this is my Airtable, and I have data for almost the last year. We’ve got another two weeks before completing one full year of recording our core strategy in our Airtable, which is just a fancy spreadsheet.

So, for Tuesday, 160 trades, just straight core strategy, doing the first three bounce levels taught in boot camp. Here are our winners, losers, and break-evens. The thing I like to look at is runner potential: does the trade go at least five points? You can see that the answer is yes here, more than no. So, Tuesdays are typically a good trend day. What are the trades for chop versus with the trend, and then which type of level is it? Now let’s roll to Wednesday for a second.

So, this is Wednesday: how many trades and how many winners? About the same number of trades but fewer winners. Many more break-even trades, in fact, three times the number of break-even trades, which means these break-even trades could easily be losers. So, the potential for losing trades, in my opinion, increases. And then let’s come down here; look at the runner potential. They’re the exact opposite, more no five-point runs. The ratio here between chop trades and with the trend trades looks much greater than here; these are about even. So, on Wednesday, we’re going to get more chop trades, less five-point runners than we’re going to get on Tuesday. So, I think that’s worthy of noting.

What’s your number one trade on Tuesdays? It’s back-sides. What’s the number one trade over here? Front-sides; back-sides are third. So, fewer runners, more chop on Wednesdays. Now, yesterday reveals several things. Number one, the power of our levels and these strong ranges I give you are nothing more than what I consider some of the most powerful levels in our system. Okay, that’s what the strong ranges are, me just picking; sometimes they’re nuanced levels, sometimes they’re just multiple confluence levels, sometimes just zooming out and really just looking at the chart and seeing what price has been doing and enjoying doing and where it’s been doing it.

The power of our ranges, I’m going to show you that here next. So, I’m going to turn this on; one of the things I draw in our group are ranges for my traders, and the reason why I draw these things…

So, this has got a red TO gray to Green area. Okay, in the red area, it is better to be looking for shorts; in the green area, it is better to be looking for longs. And when that corresponds well with my levels, it just works out really, really well. When I’m giving you these strong levels, a lot of times they are in relation to a range. Not all the time, of course, not absolutely not, but sometimes they are. You really have to be in our group to know if that’s where they’re at.

So, when the day started, I told the group, I said if we can get into our range, let me bring it back, we’re probably going to the bottom of the range. And at the bottom of the range, I had a level. What did price do down here? Let’s go take a peek at that. Okay, so here we are on the one-minute chart, bottom of the range. My line back to the range here, and this is where I went long. That’s where I went long and made my 10-point long. So, knowing we’re at the bottom of the range, what’s most likely going to happen at the bottom of the range? We’re going to start going back up. Let’s go to a 10-minute chart here. So, if you’re a member of our group, you get the advantage of seeing this during the day. And, of course, there are more ranges on our chart as we get there. So, together, we truly do trade better.

And then trend lines, and in fact, the tip of the day here is trend lines can help you avoid trades. So let’s look at that. So, this was a primary trend line. You can see Asia London stacking under, then New York is starting to stack underneath. You can see this line. Now, there’s some people who absolutely don’t believe in trend lines, whatever. It helps us stay on sides. What is on sides here, short or flat, is on sides. And then you can come in here and you go, you know what, here’s this trend line here, and you go, yep, sure is. Price went parabolic; price swung from here out to here. This becomes parabolic. When price goes parabolic in this case to the South, should you be looking for longs? It’s a tough way to make a living.

Is there places price bounces? Did my strong range bounce? Yeah, it bounced. You could play that long if you wanted, but to be on sides, you’re looking for shorts or FL flats. And then somewhere about right in here, this thing went more parabolic. Should you be looking for longs when we call it a double parabolic? Okay, and inside the group, if you’re a member of my group, please go to the trading floor. Scroll up a little bit last night where I talk about trend lines a little more in depth with better illustrations.

So basically, I’m saying when price goes parabolic, should you be looking for a counter trade? It sure is a hard way to trade. So Bulls are still winning. This was nothing but a beautiful cleansing day in my heart here in my thinking. The chart has reset. You know there’s a point where it reaches fever pitch, the pressure cooker is, and then you release all the pressure. Pressure released, the chart starts up over. It’s been reset. The Bulls are still in control. Does one day change that? Not yesterday. Now, would have it gone down 5%, maybe. Do you know what I mean? But yesterday did not change anything. The Bulls are still in control.

Daily trend line, that bad boy is way up here. We’ve only ducked our toe under a little bit. Okay, just a little bit. And then I would draw this new trend line here. And then if we were to get a little more micro, this is the overnight session, and then we’ve basically went parabolic. Now it’ll be interesting to see, does this thing base out in this area? What does it do? I’m not trading, but that’s what my next thought would be. What do we do in this little box that I would draw in this zone here? Not trading it, just observing it. Don’t need it right now.

Which, by the way, from here on out, the rest of the week, I’m treating this like Friday. I’m now at half loss. I’m at half a daily loss. I’m at a percentage of my weekly winnings. Um, so level 10 difficulty for the rest of the week. And today we have jobs data and pow, and it is NFP week. So the first news driver today is the ADP nonfarm payroll change. It’s the estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding farming industry and government.

And then we got Powell testifying at the same time the jobs report comes out. And Powell, due to testify about the semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, DC. Some notes here: the testimony usually comes in two parts. First, he reads a prepared statement, then the committee will hold a question-and-answer session. Now, it’s during this question and answer session things can get crazy and lead to high volatility, spikes, drops. Know when not to trade.

And the JOLTS job report is the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry. So some heavy stuff going on today that could lead to volatility. Should you be trading full leverage today? Something to ask yourself. Do you trade full leverage when Powell’s speaking? Is perhaps today a great day to take off with non-farm payroll two days away? Should I trade the smallest leverage possible today? Some questions to ask.

What’s happened overnight? London is stacking on top of Asia inside my range that has now been thoroughly, uh, went all the way down. Will it make it all the way back to the top? I don’t know the answer to that question, but I do know the chart has been reset. Um, the strong levels that we’ve had on our chart finally got hit. I’m going to keep them on my chart because to me, up here is still this bull-bear line. We can be bearish underneath; we get above that, you better be careful. That is the bull-bear zone.

And then strong levels, I do not have a new one for the member. I simply forgot to delete that from yesterday. So we’re going to keep everything the same as far as our strong levels are concerned. We’re going to pay attention to where we’re at. We’re going to be cognizant of that. It’s Wednesday; we’re going to be aware of the news releases today and Powell speaking. We’re going to respect the fact that non-farm payroll is a couple of days away. We’re going to dial down. We’re going to deleverage. We’re going to be smart, and we’re going to have great trade locations. And I think that’s going to be key today.

Is am I in a great trade location, for example? Would you want to be going short down here at the bottom of a range? No. But if you don’t know that’s the bottom of the range, you’re like, “Hey, we’re vomiting down, short, short, short.” You could get your face handed to you because you didn’t know where you were going long. Here, tough place to be going long; trade location helps you stay patient in a trade. Stay green, my friends.

And to learn more about our group, go to microstrader.com.