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And they’re off! I’m surprised we opened above the strong level.
First RTH Trade (10 Pointer)
Goodness! If you wanted to take a little short at the VWAP, because it’s kind of taking this liquidity right here—if it gets there on a one-minute chart—it might be worth a small speculative play. VWAP is right above that, and your stop-out could be just above the overnight halfback, in my opinion.
I wouldn’t say it’s countertrend. With a big gap down like this, you often get an inventory adjustment. Let’s see what the price does around the 103–105 area. If I were long, I would be taking profits right there.
My stop is now set at one tick to protect the position. Let’s see if we can get a bit of a move here. I’m going to go ahead and capture one point—that locks in commissions for sure. If it takes me out, so be it. This trade was only worth one contract to me. I didn’t feel it was worth scaling into multiple contracts. I don’t care about having a financed runner in a setup like this.
Price was barreling straight at us. It was just an interesting spot to try a speculative short. If it doesn’t work, no problem. Just because you get a reaction doesn’t mean you’re going to get a reversal.
At this point, I’m going to go ahead and lock in five points.
That’s what we do—we talked about going long here, short there. You just wait for your trade.
And there’s a 10-pointer! I think I’m going to go ahead and lock my 10-pointer.
Defending the Big Level
Well, we made it down to the big level, and it seems like the bulls are defending it so far. If we get back under the opening, that changes things. To me, the opening is the line in the sand. It’s a warning shot to the bulls here. We’ll see what happens next.
Missed Opportunity and Adjustment
Oh, it didn’t get me into the opening trade. I’m moving my order—it got close.
Back to the drawing board.
Actually, I had my long at 85. It got within a tick of triggering. I was planning to front-run it by a point. Had a nice morning, so I have a little bit of cushion to work with. Still, back to the drawing board.
Second RTH Trade
There we go—come on! This is what we need, just one little pop like this.
There we go. Now let’s see what happens. I’m very curious. We’re almost to the halfback level—almost, almost.
I added a little bit more at 14, but it didn’t quite get there. What I’m going to do here is set those two contracts on trailing stops and just let them go. Sometimes these moves happen so fast.
Let’s lock in commissions. If it gets down here to 01, I want it to get me out. Come on, 01—so I can lock in 10 points on this trade.
Let’s see what happens. Push down. Push down!
If it takes me out of those two, oh well. I was hoping it would get me out at 10 points on one contract, then I could move the stop to minus 10 points on the runner.
Risk and Market Control
Just because the bears are in control—if the bulls were in control, there’s no way I’d be doing this. But with the bears controlling right now, it was worth the bigger-picture play.
I was hoping to get one out at 10 points and then move my lotto runner to minus 10 points. Didn’t quite get there. Since bears are in control, I was willing to take that risk.
More Information
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