Preparing ES Emini and MES Micros Traders
To Trade In Our S&P Trading Room

Transcript

Price Action Bounce Trading System. How To Scalp ES Emini or MES Micros Futures.

Helping Futures Traders Via Our Core Strategy Academy Training Program and Futures Trading Group – The Best Emini Group IMHO. all right good afternoon Traders so I am
spending some time on this new analytics
panel for this year even dialing in
tighter on our strategy is there one or
two trades we can get rid of is there
one or two trades that we can give it a
little more time to work out um what are
some of the nuances that we’re going to
discover so the data set is small um
it’s building every single day so I’m
just going to show you a couple things
we’re just going to play around I don’t
have an exact agenda I’m just going to
show you a few things so what I’m doing
is I’m sorting the database here on show
me all the entries where it’s break
levels whether it’s a weak break level
which is no backside or a strong break
level that does have a backside we know
how wonderful the break level trade is
so let’s take a peek so just in general
16 winners 14 break evens now the break
even for me it might be much different
than you and so what I’m doing is I am
really dialing into the break even
metrics so let’s come into the break
even area here and on this break even
area here I’m going to move this over
cuz what I really want you to see is
this this panel actually this panel here
these three these are fine so the first
one is the gift of B Break Even should I
be taking that should I be giving it
more room what does it look like if I
decided to to allow the trade to to
develop even
more so here’s what these things mean
nothing means I set my stop I set my
take profits I remove my hand let price
do do what price does so this might have
been a break even trade but if you would
have traded with I’m to let it do
whatever it wants to do I’m either going
to take my profits or I’m going to take
a full loss with that
scenario if you did nothing these would
become profitable trades and in fact
then I’m marking off did it go could it
have went Five Points I’m just denoting
that as well that one would have went
Five Points so these three trades right
here although I record them as Break
Even would have been
profitable if I get if I just have here
um GBE the gift to break even means it
was just obvious just get out of the
trade it’s going nowhere just get out
reset your mind reset the chart go get
you something to drink come back and and
look at everything again and then
there’s the okay you didn’t take the
gift to break even so you’re going to
take a full
loser you’re going to take a full loser
because you did not take the gift of
break
even so this break even number is now
getting drilled down further so
if you did nothing where You’ had three
four five eight more winners you could
had eight more winners up here to this
number for a break level let’s just
remember this is break
level if on the break level so first of
all let’s continue with this nothing
so then I examined if it was nothing
could I have used my one tick rule what
is the one tick rule well the one tick
rule is I have a level
here let’s change the color to make this
thing
brighter um so you’ve got a level that’s
the brake level price comes up to it it
Wicks it and then comes back in it
doesn’t hit our stop loss that is up
here but when it does this I’ll come in
and put my stop one tick above
here would this strategy have worked and
look how many times on a break level
this works now this is not true on all
the levels I’m only showing you this on
a break level here but look at that so
if price Wicks our level and comes back
in setting the stop at one tick is Now
setting yourself up to take a half
loss in a lot of cases or it’s going to
go your favor and with a break level
trade it looks like it goes your
favor a
lot looks like it goes your favor favor
a lot now it could become one of these
losers cuz you didn’t take the gift to
break even it could become one of these
losers but it becomes a
smaller loser it becomes a smaller loser
not a full loser and because we know
that the break level trade is so
successful that I think on the break
levels it appears to me to be prudent
that if price goes beyond the break
level it comes back in puts to stop one
tick above the high of that Wick and let
it roll this is on a break level on a
break
level now with each of these trades I
also have
um I have every chart I know exactly
what every chart looks like and go back
in and I can look in and dial it in even
further if I need to feel like I need to
make some adjustments I also have on
here for example on a break level which
was more profitable or which one was the
best trade was it the base or the wick
of a break level was it the base or Wick
of a break level well it makes sense
that if price went all the way up to the
wick you’re getting close to more um
going to be facing the odds of a break
even trade so it makes sense but
boy this is why I trade the
base that’s why I trade the base look at
me five pointers really nice look how
many touch and goes versus wiggle wiggle
wiggle and look at the wiggle wiggle
wiggle here on the break
evens this is why historically I don’t
mind taking the break even on wiggle
wiggle wiggle
but based off this initial data on a
break level trade I might need to be a
little more flexible in how I do
that so very neat data and then let’s
come into the interfaces here because I
posted it in our group let’s come down
and look at it
together uh 2024 these are some old
dashboards on here um I need to clean
them up see if there’s anything I want
to keep but let’s go down and look at
this
one so this is the one I want to look at
so looking at the price action
here come on uh clicking the wrong thing
price action look at touch and
goes profit versus Break Even you want
to know why I love touch and goes oh
yeah we all know instinctly we know that
the best trades touch and go what about
wiggle wiggle wiggle you know where it
spends three candles about at our level
it looks like it’s about 5050 so now
what I want to do though is I want to
take this break even and I want to dial
it in even more so this is the wiggle
wiggle wiggle wiggle break even
trades and this is for all break even
trades and we can see that those two pie
charts look very similar so about 45 to
50% will go in your favor but 25% are
not going to go in your
favor do I like a trade would I trade a
a a trading system that said hey we have
a 45% win rate 30% % pure Break Even
obvious you should take break even just
get out and 25% losers I would probably
say no thank
you
but now this is on break even trades
these are trades in my opinion you
should just take break even but if you
wanted to give a particular trade
additional
room which level should that
be so let’s go back into here
um actually I think it’s this table yeah
make sure it’s my brake levels these are
my brake levels I really like
um so let’s do another one I want to
show another thing so I’m also
tracking what
about backup
levels that
um backup levels let’s go yes we are are
grouping everything by profit which is
great so let’s just pull these things in
and look at it from high
level high level point of view so
requiring a break even I mean a break
back I’m sorry a backup level requiring
a backup level 28 winners one loser we
want to look at that and then the 13
break evens we really want to spend the
most time here the winners take care of
themselves what does the losers tell us
well in this case this
loser what is this loser telling
me look at this special
situation reversal
box first 30 minutes of the power
hour and if I click this image you’ll
see that it’s a reversal box just
ripping through your level it’s not a
level we take we know to watch out for
reversal boxes we know not to take the
corresponding level so although that’s a
loss it’s
not it’s not so let’s come over here and
I’m going to dial into once again the
gift to break even area what do you
notice here how many losers are
here
zero
zero so if you have a clear and obvious
backup level should we be giving
this more space
now when it’s the obvious gift of break
even maybe we take it but look at this
you do nothing the one tick worked do
nothing one tick worked do nothing the
one tick work do nothing one tick
worked so if I’m having a backup
level this one tick idea that I shared
with you this week and many times
actually but we talked about it a lot
this week it seems has a lot of
of um power to it has a lot of power to
it um I’m just coming over here to
special
situations we do have some eight-point
candle
lands first trade after a liquidity grab
let’s go look at these two trades there
first trade after a liquidity grab you
know how we are not a fan of that trade
first trade after liquidity grab in this
case that’s what happened if you would
have held on um I wouldn’t have even
taken the trade to be
honest but it’s
interesting so that’s some dialed in
data that I really that I really like
what about these trades where you were
with the
trend but you were six plus
ladders six plus ladders is it
any
um the gift to break even are we
surprised are we
surprised no we’re not
surprised let’s go and look at something
else here um let’s go where
the
entry is let’s just look at backsides
let’s go look at
backsides let’s di backsides in for a
second so in general backsides 10
winners one loser that’s a reversal box
I know I’ve already looked at these
things um I was like I need to show a
few of these so there’s the reversal box
you wouldn’t have taken that trade and
now let’s look at the break evens let’s
dial these in a little bit first trade
after a liquidity grab first trade after
a liquidity grab both of those were not
interested in we’re just not interested
in them let’s dial over here um any
losers here on a
backside no um but there’s several gift
to break evens and then there’s two if
you could have would have done nothing
and they went Five
Points you took some heat but you needed
a backup level and wiggle wiggle
wiggle now every backsides by their
nature has backup levels embedded within
them you just have to make sure that the
distance of those backsides you’re
interested
in of the backup levels the that the
distance of the backup levels are within
your risk
tolerance so so here’s all here’s the
profitable backsides and you just don’t
get that many of them look at the touch
and
goes one took some heat and one went
wiggle wiggle wiggle if you are with the
trend look at this one counter Trend you
took some heat is that surprising with
the trend but fifth ladder is it
surprising you went wiggle wiggle wiggle
on a fifth ladder of course
not so this data is lining up with um
with lots of butt
time everything is lining up um I wanted
to look here one
second I’m not missing a field I need to
find
it um better entry base or Wick so on
the backside um the wick is winning
barely remember you can have here’s the
wick here’s the body and let’s say price
is coming up you can trade the wick you
can trade the 50% of the wick or you can
trade the
body this one you get more
trades but when it’s a touch and go and
when it’s a touch and go it’s amazing if
it goes all the way up to the base
you’re going to take a little bit of
heat there but you have backup levels
waiting for it to come back and based
off the success of the uh break levels
this is where I think the break even
model comes into play
do you take the gift of Break Even or do
you let it
go well that’s up to you it’s very very
difficult to decide but notice what’s
not here that if you didn’t take the
gift of Break Even it didn’t go to a
loser it didn’t go to a
loser that’s pretty
powerful that’s pretty powerful now what
if we just look at the
backsides in trend
so trend is exactly let’s go with the
trend four winners no losers three break
evens and the break
evens well one if You’ have done nothing
it would have went Five Points the other
ones were pretty obvious break evens
let’s look at one let’s look at
one so this is one we actually I
published a video this morning said
although this is a backside your ideal
stop loss 13 points away would you
actually take that
trade that one doesn’t but I do want you
to notice it didn’t take out your ideal
stop and it gave you the gift to break
even so that’s why I noted it um let’s
look at this
backside backside you had a bounce but
it wasn’t two points which is my cut off
for um and you can see it went against
you and it came back I mean how many
times you going to see that before you
just take your gift of break even and it
didn’t even get to your ideal stop- loss
which would have been Above This Wick
and then you got another gift to break
even it went a little bit in the profit
you got another gift to break even you
know this is where the one I say this is
a this is a gift to break even trade um
and I don’t think you you you just take
the gift now let’s look at this one
where if You’ have done nothing what
would have happened so this would have
been your backside your backup levels
did their job and then right after this
it goes
up uh so the backsides did their job you
took a little bit of heat you could have
taken the gift to break even but if you
did nothing you would have had five
point plus so sometimes I think the gift
of break evens become pretty obvious
just get out reassess the chart and look
at it again now let’s do something else
let’s look at
Trend when it goes
parabolic when Trend goes
parabolic uh trend is exact um is
has any of the parabolic because
sometimes I count that counter and
counter parabolic you see here counter
sometimes they were just like that’s so
counter I can’t even but that’s how I
denoted it most of the
time and when you look at this
metrics counter four
winners seven Flatout losers there’s
nothing I can do about it it was a flat
out rip your face off loser for break
even trades
let’s look at the break even trades
let’s dial in the break even trades
let’s come over here to the gift of
Break Even
area three of them are saying if you
didn’t take the gift to break even
you’re taking a full
loser so you can almost add these three
to this so you got 10 losers four
winners so when price goes parabolic
what’s what do what have I been drilling
into everyone’s head the last few weeks
do not counter a parabolic move it’s not
worth it now let’s look at the opposite
go let’s go look with with the
trend and if you’re not in our group
we’re really good at this stuff
here with the trend how many losers do
you see here zero it didn’t even bring
any up let’s look at the break
evens let’s scroll over to our break
even
area so you had one loser in the break
evens if you said you know what
if it’s not an obvious Break Even I’m
just going to let it go when it’s with
the trend not a bad idea now um let’s
look at this trade let’s just make sure
I got that
right so let’s go look at this
trade all right
so trending up now this kind of broke
the parabolic in all honesty and it came
to a break level and you were given the
gift of break even even if you didn’t
take it you know that’s a tough one I’d
have to measure it about how far that
was if I remember that was about five
points or so underneath there that’s a
weird one but I counted this one as a
break even full
loser if you didn’t take the gift of
Break Even you probably took a
loss now we don’t know if it’s going to
come back but in this case it did come
back in this case I’d give it wiggle
wiggle wiggle look at it 9 minutes so
wiggle wiggle wiggle just get out plus
it broke the parabolic line there in my
in my
opinion and uh what am I calling this
trend oh with the
trend so at this point I wouldn’t call
it parabolic let’s go back and look at
it so this was parabolic it broke it but
I still say that’s with the trend you
take that trade my opinion you take
it but nine minutes of back and forth
back and forth I think you take the gift
to break even
and that’s why I recorded it the way I
did it you take the gift of Break
Even actually I recorded it as a
loss as a loss let’s see if I can find
that
day sometimes I put the date so maybe
that was on the 6th let’s go look at
that
day
April so in April 6 that was just the
day I did it on oh there’s the trade
okay so let’s go back and analyze this
trade
here um you know you do it off the body
or the wick it depends now let’s come in
here and
measure okay that went more than our
standard uh stop loss and then it came
back it went more than the standard stop
loss and then it came back that’s why
I’m calling it if you didn’t take the
gift to break even you took a full loss
uh what’s a full loss on a break level
probably two points not the end of the
world not the end of the
world
um we call that a weak break level
because there was no backside
development so yeah I think I uh marked
all of that correctly was there a backup
level no no backup
level most break levels aren’t going to
have a backup level sometimes you have a
backup level sometimes you might have
a valley you got your brake level then
you got the like an overnight low right
underneath it that’s cool you might have
a 30 minute level right underneath it
that’s cool you got a backup level you
can get a break level trade with a
backup level and any other minor
Confluence levels like a A vwap or six
points from Pock things like that you
are probably uh going to do very well
with that trade so this is some of the
my that I am going through uh it is true
the number of Trades are low right now
I’m going to ungroup
these um how many trades I got I got 134
trades okay it’s not 10 trades but it’s
134 some of these are hard to nail down
like backsides with the trend you don’t
get many and then I have the special
situation category where I’m marking
like trifectas and fair value gaps eight
point zones in fact let’s go look at
that real quick so let’s come in here
and filter this let’s go to special
situations is exactly eight points and I
want you to sort this uh I want you to
group this by result so let’s go look at
this real
quick so on 8 point candles 10 winners
one Flatout
loser let’s see I was curious okay
that’s an overnight low so let’s do this
I’m going to also come in here and say
let’s only look at this for our exact
core strategy
entries and then we’ll leave those extra
entries
out
okay um where the special situation is
an eight-point candle and is any of
there we go was like something’s wrong
okay so 8o candle land and our and our
strategies our core strategy entries 7
winners four losers um four break evens
no losers let’s scroll over here um
three with the trend one was parabolic
so the bottom one was parabolic let’s
remember that when we come over here so
if you’d have done nothing Well gift a
break even on that last one where it
went parabolic I still don’t think you
take the
trade
um very cool I mean it’s a it’s very
small data but it’s
interesting it’s very interesting if
you’re going to trade the eight-point
candles as I say I recommend you wait
till it bounces off two levels and and
and the size of the candles come down or
you trade the smallest leverage on your
leverage
metrics and then manage the trade
accordingly manage the trade
accordingly did we look at just the
touch and goes I don’t remember I am
sorry let’s go take a peek at that real
quick I don’t know if we did price
action is exactly touch and
go and we’re going to group by that
we’ll collapse them all of course touch
and goes are all going to be profitable
there are no losers when it touches and
goes um but one of the things I want to
look at here on the touch and goes I
would be interested in bases versus
Wicks so let’s come in here for example
and we’ll come in and say um which is
the better
entry basis or
wicks in this case it’s pretty darn even
look at that 18 and 18 just interesting
just interesting what’s the
uh there was one that was Break Even it
doesn’t matter so as we develop this
data I promised to share it with you
more U maybe I’ll even give you access
to it where you could look at the images
but I need the data to be more
significant all right so I hope you like
this inside glance
green my friends and to learn more about
our group go to micr trader.com