2024 Trade Analytics Preview

Price Action Bounce Trading System. How To Scalp ES Emini or MES Micros Futures.

Helping Futures Traders Via Our Core Strategy Academy Training Program and Futures Trading Group – The Best Emini Group IMHO. all right good afternoon Traders so I am spending some time on this new analytics panel for this year even dialing in tighter on our strategy is there one or two trades we can get rid of is there one or two trades that we can give it a little more time to work out um what are some of the nuances that we’re going to discover so the data set is small um it’s building every single day so I’m just going to show you a couple things we’re just going to play around I don’t have an exact agenda I’m just going to show you a few things so what I’m doing is I’m sorting the database here on show me all the entries where it’s break levels whether it’s a weak break level which is no backside or a strong break level that does have a backside we know how wonderful the break level trade is so let’s take a peek so just in general 16 winners 14 break evens now the break even for me it might be much different than you and so what I’m doing is I am really dialing into the break even metrics so let’s come into the break even area here and on this break even area here I’m going to move this over cuz what I really want you to see is this this panel actually this panel here these three these are fine so the first one is the gift of B Break Even should I be taking that should I be giving it more room what does it look like if I decided to to allow the trade to to develop even more so here’s what these things mean nothing means I set my stop I set my take profits I remove my hand let price do do what price does so this might have been a break even trade but if you would have traded with I’m to let it do whatever it wants to do I’m either going to take my profits or I’m going to take a full loss with that scenario if you did nothing these would become profitable trades and in fact then I’m marking off did it go could it have went Five Points I’m just denoting that as well that one would have went Five Points so these three trades right here although I record them as Break Even would have been profitable if I get if I just have here um GBE the gift to break even means it was just obvious just get out of the trade it’s going nowhere just get out reset your mind reset the chart go get you something to drink come back and and look at everything again and then there’s the okay you didn’t take the gift to break even so you’re going to take a full loser you’re going to take a full loser because you did not take the gift of break even so this break even number is now getting drilled down further so if you did nothing where You’ had three four five eight more winners you could had eight more winners up here to this number for a break level let’s just remember this is break level if on the break level so first of all let’s continue with this nothing so then I examined if it was nothing could I have used my one tick rule what is the one tick rule well the one tick rule is I have a level here let’s change the color to make this thing brighter um so you’ve got a level that’s the brake level price comes up to it it Wicks it and then comes back in it doesn’t hit our stop lossStop LossYour "uncle point"—the price where you admit you were wrong and exit. ALWAYS use stops. Always. No stop = eventual account blow-up. Full entry → that is up here but when it does this I’ll come in and put my stop one tick above here would this strategy have worked and look how many times on a break level this works now this is not true on all the levels I’m only showing you this on a break level here but look at that so if price Wicks our level and comes back in setting the stop at one tick is Now setting yourself up to take a half loss in a lot of cases or it’s going to go your favor and with a break level trade it looks like it goes your favor a lot looks like it goes your favor favor a lot now it could become one of these losers cuz you didn’t take the gift to break even it could become one of these losers but it becomes a smaller loser it becomes a smaller loser not a full loser and because we know that the break level trade is so successful that I think on the break levels it appears to me to be prudent that if price goes beyond the break level it comes back in puts to stop one tick above the high of that Wick and let it roll this is on a break level on a break level now with each of these trades I also have um I have every chart I know exactly what every chart looks like and go back in and I can look in and dial it in even further if I need to feel like I need to make some adjustments I also have on here for example on a break level which was more profitable or which one was the best trade was it the base or the wick of a break level was it the base or Wick of a break level well it makes sense that if price went all the way up to the wick you’re getting close to more um going to be facing the odds of a break even trade so it makes sense but boy this is why I trade the base that’s why I trade the base look at me five pointers really nice look how many touch and goes versus wiggle wiggle wiggle and look at the wiggle wiggle wiggle here on the break evens this is why historically I don’t mind taking the break even on wiggle wiggle wiggle but based off this initial data on a break level trade I might need to be a little more flexible in how I do that so very neat data and then let’s come into the interfaces here because I posted it in our group let’s come down and look at it together uh 2024 these are some old dashboards on here um I need to clean them up see if there’s anything I want to keep but let’s go down and look at this one so this is the one I want to look at so looking at the price action here come on uh clicking the wrong thing price action look at touch and goes profit versus Break Even you want to know why I love touch and goes oh yeah we all know instinctly we know that the best trades touch and go what about wiggle wiggle wiggle you know where it spends three candles about at our level it looks like it’s about 5050 so now what I want to do though is I want to take this break even and I want to dial it in even more so this is the wiggle wiggle wiggle wiggle break even trades and this is for all break even trades and we can see that those two pie charts look very similar so about 45 to 50% will go in your favor but 25% are not going to go in your favor do I like a trade would I trade a a a trading system that said hey we have a 45% win rate 30% % pure Break Even obvious you should take break even just get out and 25% losers I would probably say no thank you but now this is on break even trades these are trades in my opinion you should just take break even but if you wanted to give a particular trade additional room which level should that be so let’s go back into here um actually I think it’s this table yeah make sure it’s my brake levels these are my brake levels I really like um so let’s do another one I want to show another thing so I’m also tracking what about backup levels that um backup levels let’s go yes we are are grouping everything by profit which is great so let’s just pull these things in and look at it from high level high level point of view so requiring a break even I mean a break back I’m sorry a backup level requiring a backup level 28 winners one loser we want to look at that and then the 13 break evens we really want to spend the most time here the winners take care of themselves what does the losers tell us well in this case this loser what is this loser telling me look at this special situation reversal box first 30 minutes of the power hour and if I click this image you’ll see that it’s a reversal box just ripping through your level it’s not a level we take we know to watch out for reversal boxes we know not to take the corresponding level so although that’s a loss it’s not it’s not so let’s come over here and I’m going to dial into once again the gift to break even area what do you notice here how many losers are here zero zero so if you have a clear and obvious backup level should we be giving this more space now when it’s the obvious gift of break even maybe we take it but look at this you do nothing the one tick worked do nothing one tick worked do nothing the one tick work do nothing one tick worked so if I’m having a backup level this one tick idea that I shared with you this week and many times actually but we talked about it a lot this week it seems has a lot of of um power to it has a lot of power to it um I’m just coming over here to special situations we do have some eight-point candle lands first trade after a liquidity grab let’s go look at these two trades there first trade after a liquidity grab you know how we are not a fan of that trade first trade after liquidity grab in this case that’s what happened if you would have held on um I wouldn’t have even taken the trade to be honest but it’s interesting so that’s some dialed in data that I really that I really like what about these trades where you were with the trend but you were six plus ladders six plus ladders is it any um the gift to break even are we surprised are we surprised no we’re not surprised let’s go and look at something else here um let’s go where the entry is let’s just look at backsides let’s go look at backsides let’s di backsides in for a second so in general backsides 10 winners one loser that’s a reversal box I know I’ve already looked at these things um I was like I need to show a few of these so there’s the reversal box you wouldn’t have taken that trade and now let’s look at the break evens let’s dial these in a little bit first trade after a liquidity grab first trade after a liquidity grab both of those were not interested in we’re just not interested in them let’s dial over here um any losers here on a backside no um but there’s several gift to break evens and then there’s two if you could have would have done nothing and they went Five Points you took some heat but you needed a backup level and wiggle wiggle wiggle now every backsides by their nature has backup levels embedded within them you just have to make sure that the distance of those backsides you’re interested in of the backup levels the that the distance of the backup levels are within your risk tolerance so so here’s all here’s the profitable backsides and you just don’t get that many of them look at the touch and goes one took some heat and one went wiggle wiggle wiggle if you are with the trend look at this one counter Trend you took some heat is that surprising with the trend but fifth ladder is it surprising you went wiggle wiggle wiggle on a fifth ladder of course not so this data is lining up with um with lots of butt time everything is lining up um I wanted to look here one second I’m not missing a field I need to find it um better entry base or Wick so on the backside um the wick is winning barely remember you can have here’s the wick here’s the body and let’s say price is coming up you can trade the wick you can trade the 50% of the wick or you can trade the body this one you get more trades but when it’s a touch and go and when it’s a touch and go it’s amazing if it goes all the way up to the base you’re going to take a little bit of heat there but you have backup levels waiting for it to come back and based off the success of the uh break levels this is where I think the break even model comes into play do you take the gift of Break Even or do you let it go well that’s up to you it’s very very difficult to decide but notice what’s not here that if you didn’t take the gift of Break Even it didn’t go to a loser it didn’t go to a loser that’s pretty powerful that’s pretty powerful now what if we just look at the backsides in trend so trend is exactly let’s go with the trend four winners no losers three break evens and the break evens well one if You’ have done nothing it would have went Five Points the other ones were pretty obvious break evens let’s look at one let’s look at one so this is one we actually I published a video this morning said although this is a backside your ideal stop loss 13 points away would you actually take that trade that one doesn’t but I do want you to notice it didn’t take out your ideal stop and it gave you the gift to break even so that’s why I noted it um let’s look at this backside backside you had a bounce but it wasn’t two points which is my cut off for um and you can see it went against you and it came back I mean how many times you going to see that before you just take your gift of break even and it didn’t even get to your ideal stop- loss which would have been Above This Wick and then you got another gift to break even it went a little bit in the profit you got another gift to break even you know this is where the one I say this is a this is a gift to break even trade um and I don’t think you you you just take the gift now let’s look at this one where if You’ have done nothing what would have happened so this would have been your backside your backup levels did their job and then right after this it goes up uh so the backsides did their job you took a little bit of heat you could have taken the gift to break even but if you did nothing you would have had five point plus so sometimes I think the gift of break evens become pretty obvious just get out reassess the chart and look at it again now let’s do something else let’s look at Trend when it goes parabolic when Trend goes parabolic uh trend is exact um is has any of the parabolic because sometimes I count that counter and counter parabolic you see here counter sometimes they were just like that’s so counter I can’t even but that’s how I denoted it most of the time and when you look at this metrics counter four winners seven Flatout losers there’s nothing I can do about it it was a flat out rip your face off loser for break even trades let’s look at the break even trades let’s dial in the break even trades let’s come over here to the gift of Break Even area three of them are saying if you didn’t take the gift to break even you’re taking a full loser so you can almost add these three to this so you got 10 losers four winners so when price goes parabolic what’s what do what have I been drilling into everyone’s head the last few weeks do not counter a parabolic move it’s not worth it now let’s look at the opposite go let’s go look with with the trend and if you’re not in our group we’re really good at this stuff here with the trend how many losers do you see here zero it didn’t even bring any up let’s look at the break evens let’s scroll over to our break even area so you had one loser in the break evens if you said you know what if it’s not an obvious Break Even I’m just going to let it go when it’s with the trend not a bad idea now um let’s look at this trade let’s just make sure I got that right so let’s go look at this trade all right so trending up now this kind of broke the parabolic in all honesty and it came to a break level and you were given the gift of break even even if you didn’t take it you know that’s a tough one I’d have to measure it about how far that was if I remember that was about five points or so underneath there that’s a weird one but I counted this one as a break even full loser if you didn’t take the gift of Break Even you probably took a loss now we don’t know if it’s going to come back but in this case it did come back in this case I’d give it wiggle wiggle wiggle look at it 9 minutes so wiggle wiggle wiggle just get out plus it broke the parabolic line there in my in my opinion and uh what am I calling this trend oh with the trend so at this point I wouldn’t call it parabolic let’s go back and look at it so this was parabolic it broke it but I still say that’s with the trend you take that trade my opinion you take it but nine minutes of back and forth back and forth I think you take the gift to break even and that’s why I recorded it the way I did it you take the gift of Break Even actually I recorded it as a loss as a loss let’s see if I can find that day sometimes I put the date so maybe that was on the 6th let’s go look at that day April so in April 6 that was just the day I did it on oh there’s the trade okay so let’s go back and analyze this trade here um you know you do it off the body or the wick it depends now let’s come in here and measure okay that went more than our standard uh stop loss and then it came back it went more than the standard stop loss and then it came back that’s why I’m calling it if you didn’t take the gift to break even you took a full loss uh what’s a full loss on a break level probably two points not the end of the world not the end of the world um we call that a weak break level because there was no backside development so yeah I think I uh marked all of that correctly was there a backup level no no backup level most break levels aren’t going to have a backup level sometimes you have a backup level sometimes you might have a valley you got your brake level then you got the like an overnight low right underneath it that’s cool you might have a 30 minute level right underneath it that’s cool you got a backup level you can get a break level trade with a backup level and any other minor Confluence levels like a A vwapVolume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)The average price weighted by volume. Institutions use this to measure their execution quality. Above VWAP = bullish. Below VWAP = bearish. Full entry → or six points from Pock things like that you are probably uh going to do very well with that trade so this is some of the my that I am going through uh it is true the number of Trades are low right now I’m going to ungroup these um how many trades I got I got 134 trades okay it’s not 10 trades but it’s 134 some of these are hard to nail down like backsides with the trend you don’t get many and then I have the special situation category where I’m marking like trifectas and fair value gaps eight point zones in fact let’s go look at that real quick so let’s come in here and filter this let’s go to special situations is exactly eight points and I want you to sort this uh I want you to group this by result so let’s go look at this real quick so on 8 point candles 10 winners one Flatout loser let’s see I was curious okay that’s an overnight low so let’s do this I’m going to also come in here and say let’s only look at this for our exact core strategy entries and then we’ll leave those extra entries out okay um where the special situation is an eight-point candle and is any of there we go was like something’s wrong okay so 8o candle land and our and our strategies our core strategy entries 7 winners four losers um four break evens no losers let’s scroll over here um three with the trend one was parabolic so the bottom one was parabolic let’s remember that when we come over here so if you’d have done nothing Well gift a break even on that last one where it went parabolic I still don’t think you take the trade um very cool I mean it’s a it’s very small data but it’s interesting it’s very interesting if you’re going to trade the eight-point candles as I say I recommend you wait till it bounces off two levels and and and the size of the candles come down or you trade the smallest leverage on your leverage metrics and then manage the trade accordingly manage the trade accordingly did we look at just the touch and goes I don’t remember I am sorry let’s go take a peek at that real quick I don’t know if we did price action is exactly touch and go and we’re going to group by that we’ll collapse them all of course touch and goes are all going to be profitable there are no losers when it touches and goes um but one of the things I want to look at here on the touch and goes I would be interested in bases versus Wicks so let’s come in here for example and we’ll come in and say um which is the better entry basis or wicks in this case it’s pretty darn even look at that 18 and 18 just interesting just interesting what’s the uh there was one that was Break Even it doesn’t matter so as we develop this data I promised to share it with you more U maybe I’ll even give you access to it where you could look at the images but I need the data to be more significant all right so I hope you like this inside glance green my friends and to learn more about our group go to micr trader.com