ICT Concepts, Silver Bullet, & Trading Strategy
Live Futures Trading Room

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Transcript
all right folks how you doing hope everybody’s doing well and this is just a
kind of like a prep to get your mindset correct on what’s coming in two days and on the youtube channel
i want you to understand going forward that obviously you are
familiar with my moniker i’ve dubbed myself the demo baller and i’ve always talked through the medium of
a demo account for my own protection and i’ve had students come in to my fold
and question whether or not it was something that could work in live
accounts because they themselves couldn’t make it work in either a demo or paper trading
because either they could not find it in themselves to submit to the process and the time required for their own
individual development or they rushed and did things foolishly
outside of the instructions that i provide in mentoring
so there’s a small faction of
individuals on the internet that believe that these things that i teach don’t work in a live account
and it’s never really been an interest in me really to see people
fall over me and believe everything i say i’ve challenged everyone
to put the things i teach to test see if the things i’m teaching you are in fact
in the marketplace do they deliver more times than that does it
provide you a way of finding consistency over a week not every single day
perfection because i can’t provide that i don’t even trade perfectly like that a new trader can new teacher can provide
100 accuracy but the way i teach and the way you’ll see
me mentoring on this channel in two days is i take the earners okay all of you
that are not trading yet or have tried trading and failed
you’re yearning to learn how to do this okay so i’m teaching with that mindset now some
of you obviously may have already been with me and found some consistency and some of you are doing exceedingly well
and that’s amazing that’s great and i’m thankful for all of that but this is really meant for
specifically it’s for my daughter okay so i sat down and figured i’d kill two birds at one
stone and if i can show a simplistic way of going
in using the things that i teach stripping it down to its chrome
okay no bells and whistles no advanced theories or anything like that what can
i do to provide a model that my daughter could look at and say okay there’s not a
lot of moving parts it’s real simple for me to decide what it is i want to do and also when not to do something okay and
some of you may already be completely upset with that idea because you want me to come out here and lay an
arsenal in your hands of high-tech weaponry
it’s been my experience that the highest form of analysis concepts that i’ve been
teaching in my own personal mentorship many times creates exceptional traders yes
but the majority of them in them being my students
they get bogged down in all of the content and it just creates
analysis paralysis and it’s just too many things for them to decide because like kid in the candy store
you know what do you eat first and while you’re still chewing on the first thing what are you going to reach for next
okay so if you don’t have discipline and this is a personal responsibility characteristic that all of you gonna
have to really assume okay because i can lay the things
in your hands but if you don’t respect the fact that they
have sharp edges okay or if you use live ammunition before you’re
really properly trained you could hurt yourself okay so with that idea in mind um
i’ll be teaching a stripped down version of
my concepts in a mentorship style so that way you can go through the
process of learning how to do a specific trading model and i’ll keep things germane to that
model not trying to bring in too many things and one of the approaches is to trade it
with index features okay and if you are not interested in trading futures that’s
fine you can still trade 4x with these concepts as well but i kind of like want to drive it with
futures i actually began trading in 1992 as a commodity and futures trader and i moved
away from grains and cattle and gold silver crude oil all those types of markets and moved into
the bond market the 30-year treasury bond and the s p
so when that became my cup of tea if you will
i became a better trader intraday and i put down the pursuit of trying to
be a long term position trader because i felt that that would be the best thing for me because at the time i was working a job and had to balance all those
things like working class individuals need to do they have to commute back and forth to work and those types of things so
i figured position trading would be the thing for me and i found out that it didn’t work for me okay so i liked the
idea of short-term trading intraday trading it made sense to me because i can make quick decisions
that may not be your style of trading i will teach you how to apply the things i’m going to
teach on the youtube channel how you can scale that up into any time frame so that way
there’s no excuse for you not to be able to use the information to at least better your understanding in price action okay so here’s my promises to you
i promise you you’re going to learn things that absolutely repeat
a lot you are not going to be perfect it’s not my goal to make
you a perfect trader it’s not my goal to make you a perfect analyst my goal is to improve your understanding
about price action how price is delivered and how to read the bias on an intraday
basis a daily basis and hopefully over a short-term period of time you can find setups that repeat
and they have common characteristics that are very similar but they won’t be identical no no they
won’t be carbon copies but you’ll see similarities that to know and trust that
this is a setup that you are familiar with okay and because you were all
being viewed as yearners okay you are all yearning to learn how to do this
there’s three stages in this youtube mentorship okay i’m treating you all as
green horns okay you’re just yearning to do this a lot of you that begin this youtube mentorship will
not complete it because you’re gonna get frustrated because you want something else or a
alternative a way of me teaching it to you i’m not going to take suggestions from anybody on how to
teach it differently this is the way i’m going to teach it so it’s as is it will not be setups given to you for
trades but i will take your attention before the fact and draw them out on a chart where i want you to study
where price will likely draw to next and using the things i teach you conceptually it’s your job to study that
okay do not look at that as a trade setup do not look at that as a enticement to take a live trade
so it’s my intentions to take the yearners that want to learn how to
do this through a process of becoming structured learners
so you’re going from yearning to learning and hopefully at your discretion and timing you’ll become an
earner okay so learner earner okay
so those three stages are what i’m going to take you through
it’s not going to be an entire year mentorship i’m going to do probably three or four months
but before we get into it i want you to know that i will not be providing any content to
the youtube channel or my own personal mentorship during the month of march okay so march
2022 i will not be doing anything i’ll be on vacation and
we’re gonna be doing several road trips so i will not be working for you
okay so if you can accept that then i think over the next coming months
it should be rather entertaining and interesting for you as a student
so you’re looking at this screen here and one of the things i promised i would do in 2022 is to
show you how some of these concepts would work in an environment outside of a demo account
i’ve always used the moniker demo baller because that’s my name i gave myself that to
kind of like champion the idea that i’m teaching through a demo but if i can teach you
through a demo and things are repeating you can see your charts okay whether it’s a live platform or if
it’s a demo you’re seeing the things that i teach and if you’ve been fortunate enough to be in my presence
when i’m calling it beforehand it’s very rewarding and you all on youtube will have those experiences as
well but the main thing is for you not to grow a dependency on me pointing to
everything before it happens because if you do that or if you have that mindset going in it’s going to stunt your growth
and in fact it’s going to create a barrier for you because it’ll create a codependency
state of mind and i don’t want that i try to foster a independent mindset where you’re
independently coming to the decisions on your own it’s that way the results are yours if it’s success you own it if you
failed you own that too i can’t co-sign for your failure and some of you absolutely will fail i said this many
times openly and every time i’ve been asked in 2016 i started a paid mentorship
and i have students from that time period that are still trying to find their way and they cannot make these
things work for themselves i have other students from 2016 that are absolutely
mind-blowing results and i have students from my mentorship group that was the final class in 2021 i’m not taking new
enrollment so don’t ask that group i have traders that are doing very well as well so it’s not a
shortcoming on what it is they’re being taught it’s just an individual unique experience that you have to grow and go
through and i can’t speed it up for you any more than i already done so i’m optimistic but i’m a realist i know some
of you simply will not do the things i ask you to do you will not do them effectively and you’ll try to short
cut certain things and you’ll think that you don’t need to do this and don’t do that and your results will be
reduced because of that so if i suggest things to you drills homework things to study
do your best to participate in that okay and even if you can’t do it live
you know there’s other ways to go through and look at it it’s not the same as seeing it live but it’s
the best you can do because some of you have businesses some of you have school jobs okay let’s be real
and you may have family things that keep you also from being able to watch live
data in the times i’m asking you to do it i’m not going to jump through hoops i’m
not going to do acrobatics to make it you know feasible for every single one of you okay it’s unrealistic for you any
of you to have that expectation of me because i don’t need to be doing this i love doing it i’m looking forward to doing it but i want to make sure all of
you have the right mindset okay so in 2022 i promised that you would see
how these concepts work in an environment outside of a demo
account and what would that mean well it would mean not well not an mt4 platform because
years ago it’s been shown how frauds and fakes can use that platform to pretend
that they’re profitable that they can find setups and that their trading is amazing
and they can go in and edit their trades after the fact after the market’s already moved
well i’ve already proven that i don’t do those types of things and i went to tradingview and that was the platform
that i asked my community so which which platform should i use if i’m going away from mt4
i want to go to a platform that’s reputable so i teach and you’ll see me teaching through
tradingview so that’s the medium that we use it’s familiar to me because i’m teaching
mentorship students through that but if that’s not your platform of choice
you’re just going to have to get used to me teaching through that medium because i’m not going to do something in addition to okay
but for a live account i felt that
td ameritrade is very reputable and that it is
regulated by the commodity futures trading commission and all of the other gardening bodies uh i cannot
rig this to make it look like i’m smarter okay i can’t go back in and change a trade
i can’t fix it okay i can’t add lipstick to it okay it either is or isn’t
a profitable trade okay it’s as simple as that td ameritrade uses
the margins that are accepted and established in the industry
and some of you may not be able to trade a market because of margin don’t
let that be a hindrance i’ll show you how to work around that in other platforms while i don’t personally use an mt4 account
for teachings or or trading live funds or anything like that i’m confident that students that are trying
to learn how to do this they can still use mt4 or mt5 or any other platform for
that matter i as an educator though moved away from those platforms because they can be gained
okay in other words they can be used to fraud and fake
results okay so in treating you you’ve seen examples after examples of me going
in recording an entry calling the moves as it happens without the replay button because replay doesn’t
let you do trade entries okay and replay only shows you a completed candlestick it doesn’t
show you the generation of the open all the price action up and down to the close of every individual candlestick so
i’ve had a lot of folks over the years asked me to show live account show live account show live
account and one of the things that kept me from wanting to do is because if i show
results of any kind right away and this is how i viewed it too as a
developing student in the 1990s that made me feel like
i’m never going to get it because their results were way above what i could do as a
learning developing student i had no idea what i was doing in 1992 but to see people say yeah i made fifty
thousand dollars in the soybean market okay or i made eighty thousand dollars in coffee
well that to me was a very
huge mountain decline like i have to do that it just it felt impossible
but i also didn’t want to give results that were so low end that it didn’t inspire an interest in
having people want to learn it so because this business is extremely
unique and personal it’s both the easiest thing you’ll ever do and sometimes
for many of you is the most impossible thing to be successful at and that sounds like an oxymoron it sounds like
double talk and it is but it isn’t how’s that for a rib
you can’t appreciate how difficult it is until you start treating life funds
but before you start treatment life funds in your in the consistently quote unquote profitable demo trading
stage you feel like you can do anything but something magical happens when you go into a live account where now
suddenly every little tick means something to you because it means
success or failure on an individual basis whereas if you lose in a demo account yeah you didn’t really lose
anything you can take another demo trade but with live account trading
you have to deal with that drawdown in that loss and making money in an account is
sometimes worse than losing money because it will make you feel like you want another taste of that and it
creates opportunities for you to go into over trade and or over leverage and both of those things we’ll talk about in the youtube
mentorship how to avoid some of those things but it’s up to you to avoid them okay and
it takes a lot of ownership personally and the responsibility that is required to do this is
paramount okay you cannot have anybody else take responsibility for your actions
it’s your actions and if you do well you earned it if you don’t do well you hate you have
to eat it okay it’s the way it is and too many people are weak-minded in this world that they will never become
successful traders no matter who teaches them what whatever thing they use they’re gonna be a failure okay that’s
just the way it is and there’s no way around that i can’t fix and improve everyone’s shortcomings
i have my own personal issues that i fight and wrestle with internally and
it’s not easy like i’m obsessively compulsive and i have i have adv it’s
all these things okay that make it difficult for me and i’m bipolar so i have a lot of mental
barriers but if i can sit down and frame out an idea that
repeats at least once a week i’m confident that those individuals out
there that are like me or without these barriers can do it as well that’s my personal
belief it doesn’t make it fact it doesn’t make it true it just means that’s my belief and i’ve seen
case studies in my own students where that’s true it’s a transferable
skill but the skill must be honed by you the student
so anyway i promised i would show some results in 2022 outside of a demo account so i
used td ameritrade but years ago i was asked to show a regulated broker
non-mt4 and i felt that td ameritrade was a better
choice outside of you know the standard forex account brokers because with td
ameritrade you can trade forex you can trade futures you can trade commodities stocks options you can bond
up everything out there you can treat it okay so eventually over time if you do become
successful when you’re profitable you want to go with a broker that allows you to have access to all those vehicles
because there’s certain times of the year certain asset classes just aren’t going to do very well but others will in
this type of broker and i’m not repping td ameritrade i don’t get anything for it i’m not an
introducing broker i’m just saying that when i’m showing results in an account that is not demo
this is the broker that i deposited funds with so that way we know what i’m
saying here i’m not telling you to go here and trade okay i have
only traded a few trades with this broker but i can tell you their fills are immediate
their confirmations are solid i haven’t had any problems
technically it’s just i’m fumbling with the layouts the way things are
made available to me because it’s just like anything else when i’m transitioned from mt4
teaching from that being very comfortable that going into treating view it’s very cumbersome and i’m still
clumsy with it when i’m teaching and i’m finding it a little bit cumbersome
here as well because i just don’t know where they have certain things i don’t know how to make the charts
scalable as faces i want them to be and like i’m used to doing it with tradestation or tradingview or mt4
so it’s just a learning process but it doesn’t change the fact that if you know how to trade then the trades are easy
so i keep everything very simple you know i use limits and markets to get in and i just collapse a trade
when it gets to a target of my choice so that’s all i’m showing you here today
it’s just to show you that the things i’m going to be showing you are applicable
on paper and in demo and the same logic is used here and while this is not a lot of money it’s
only twenty three thousand was it six hundred ninety four dollars and eleven cents it’s not
something to brag about let’s just put it that way but it’s something that’s not demo it’s something that won’t stay
at that level and my objective is to teach conceptually
a hypothetical income based strategy okay it’s not a
trying to beat the world cup okay it’s not trying to do better than every instagram
trader out there it’s just trying to teach how someone can take
another opportunity and hopefully in the best case scenario and i can’t guarantee or promise it to you but i’m going to
certainly do my best to do what i know and how i can teach it so that way you can be at least inspired to make an
attempt to try okay and because i believe that things are about to get really really hard for
everyone financially and without going into great detail just
look around the world and you know what i’m talking about but this is the e-mini s p march delivery
contract for 2022 okay and it’s a two minute chart and i want you to see
the port of entry here this is a short it took
and the cover was here and another one here a small little scalp
and then here and then over here i’m showing you so that way
you can see there was no other trades after that short or two shorts rather and then today i slept in
and i just want to have something in addition to what i already have here
this is kind of like one of the setups that you’re going to learn in the mentorship
where the entries here
and exits here okay not a lot of handles okay handle would be like 45 67 to 45 68.
so that’s four ticks or one full handle in this market it’s 50 per handle
or per four ticks so every one tick is twelve dollars and fifty cents
above this high is buy stops and i was targeting that here running into that okay so
very very simple strategy optimal trade entry you don’t need to get in at this level here okay i’m going
to teach you how to have forgiving entries you don’t need to be highly precise
about your entries but you need to be precise about the directional bias and where it’s going okay where’s price
reaching for and that’s kind of like what i’m showing you in this mentorship on the youtube
channel so if i have at least
given you the opportunity to find setups conceptually if that’s the case
then over time if you submit yourself to it you’ll find more setups than you’d ever
imagine because they’re there a lot in excess of these lower time frames so
in a nutshell what am i saying here i’m saying that if you can learn how to take 25 handles
okay if you can take 25 handles out of a market like the e-mini s p
you may not have the margin 12 13 000 or whatever it is to trade one
contract of this market you don’t need to have that you can trade the micros
and while you’re not making fifty dollars per handle on e-mini s p you’re making five dollars per handle you can
still graduate over time and build that up and it’s not a lot of initial margin that’s required to do
that or if you’re outside the u.s you can trade a cfd
and trade the u.s 500 market through like an mt4
account and again i’m just going to touch on that i’m not suggesting that you should especially
those individuals in the states because it’s actually illegal for you to trade that because it doesn’t go through a regulated extreme exchange like a
futures market would so that makes it illegal for us traders to do that so we have to in the u.s trade through
the futures market and they have been nice enough to provide micro accounts for vehicles like the e-mini s
p and the nasdaq they have micro accounts so whatever the multiplier would be on the
regular mini it’s just reduced to a smaller level in terms of margin
and tick value and i’ll cover all that stuff it’s i’ve made it very very simple or at least that’s been the goal i’m having going
into this i’ll make it very very simple for all of you to look at it say okay i don’t have to have a thousand
moving parts i can go in and simply look at things that make sense and if you can visually understand what
it is i’m teaching you’ll see that it doesn’t require a lot of chart graffiti okay things that are
very distracting do you look at this chart here and see a lot of things that would be mysterious no very simple
little things i’ll draw a line to highlight a level that i want to see breached okay and a level where i want to see it
reach up into and that’s the basis of understanding how the markets work
within a liquidity matrix you have buy side and sell side
and once you have that understanding and i’ll teach some of those things in the mentorship you’ll be able to find setups that
repeat at least one good setup a week but if you can find 25 handles a week
in the e-mini market you can do very very well with that very very well you don’t need to hit
home runs and here’s my inspiration to you in closing
if we’re looking at a market that provides uh setups and let’s just say your mortgage
or your rent is say 1500 it may not be that much it may be actually more than that i’m just
going to say let’s say it’s 1500 what happens if you can earn enough
to make 50 or all of that a month going forward
would that not be beneficial to you that’s the mindset i want you all to have or let’s say you have a car mode
in your car payment and your car insurance if you could find a way to have that money
come to you by your own speculation over time not right away i’m not suggesting all of you are going to do this in the
same year but over time if you submit to the process i outlined for you my belief is my personal belief my
honest opinion is i believe that it is possible now anyone can say oh
anything’s possible but i believe the things i’m going to show you are things that you’ll be able to spot
on your own now i’m going to coach you throughout the coming months showing you where certain things may deliver
but i don’t want you to feel like you need that so i’ll teach you how to anticipate
certain things on your own and then you check yourself with the things i reveal or do
a review with and my belief is that you’ll be better at
reading price when i’m done doing this youtube internship and again i don’t think i’m going to be
doing more than four months and that four months is actually including the month of march where nothing
nothing’s getting uploaded nothing in my private mentorship or on youtube so i will be vacationing that entire month so i’ll be
doing those things during the month of march and then in april i’ll return back to the
mentor that i am in my private mentorship and i’ll return back to the delivery of the
lessons on the youtube channel so what does this schedule look like for this mentorship on youtube
obviously friday will be your first episode and then it’ll be a tuesday and thursday
upload there will be assignments and pdf files
provided for your learning throughout the week i’m not promising
any specific schedule on that but you’ll be able to see them if you go to my community tab i’ll
provide a way for you to get to the information and download it and i think that if you submit to this
you’ll be far better than you are right now about reading price expecting
certain things to deliver and you’ll find that it’s not as challenging when you have a good mentor
and you have sound logic and it’s not over complicated and that’s my goal going in and until talk to you
on friday be safe
Transcript
all right folks well we’re here so technically this is the first
teaching i gave you guys an introduction video obviously if you haven’t watched that one yet go to the playlist on my
youtube channel and please watch that one because it’ll help at least establish the
in my opinion the proper expectations that way you understand what you’re getting involved with here
and at least it gives me a chance to kind of like break the ice and show you
the contrast of what you may be expecting versus what i intend to deliver
all right so this first installment is going to be elements to a trade setup
all right so coming out of the gate i just want to let you know that this is predominantly
going to be a futures index trading mentorship okay
the idea is going to be presented in the scope of paper trading
on tradingview.com but what you’re looking at here this is thinkorswim’s live data these
are actual executions i made today and i want you to compare and contrast with what you see on
youtube and other educators where they’ll tell that they can do this and they can
do that but really i want you to compare and contrast what you see here
all right so we’re looking at intraday price action for nasdaq e-mini futures
and this is actually the the main focus of this mentorship okay
i believe that this market is worth studying i believe it is not just
limited to nasdaq but i believe it’s useful
to learn as a trader that views obviously the e-mini s
p the e-mini dial future and the e-mini nasdaq now evening nasdaq is a little
bit faster a little bit more aggressive and
even with that you can still trade it so i want you to think about
what it means to watch price action and understand what it’s likely to do before it does it now i’m not promising you’re
going to be able to do that right out of the gate what i’m going to show you is the
comparing contrast to how i can trade versus what i’m promising to teach you
in this mentorship how to find specific setups in your demo account okay or your
paper trading account i’m not trying to entice you to trade with live funds okay so we
know this going in the teachings will be predominantly through the scope of tradingview.com’s
paper trading module or just hindsight data
now i already know some of your oh here we go the hindsight guy well what you’re looking at here is
actually live executions from today okay and i want you to think about if
you were able to trade a micro account and you were trading the nasdaq
and you were able to capture just one of these moves which one would
you like to learn how to find obviously you probably look at this
and think well i’d like to do all of them but i want you to think about which one really stands out
off the entire chart and this is a one-minute chart which one really stands out and i’ll
give you a moment you can pause the video and unpause it when you’re ready
some of you folks never ever pause it alright so obviously we can see how the market
moves from here okay two orders executed here whenever you
see this this is actually a reversal so if there is a trade on long
it’ll reverse and take you the other direction okay and then this one here
this is a reversal as well then a little another close
and then another long entry the exit a short entry and then the cover okay
i’d like for you to consider what it would take for you to find consistency and how many handles how many full
handle moves in an index futures contract that would satisfy you when i say a
handle that’s essentially four ticks the minimum fluctuation in these markets
an example would be if you were trading the e-mini s p and you were trading obviously the four
four five zero level and you went long if it went to four four five one that’s a full handle okay or four ticks or
four times twelve dollars and fifty cents or fifty dollars per handle the nasdaq is 20 per handle so
it’s slightly different but it’s faster it moves a lot more a lot more handles a lot more aggression
now it doesn’t always move faster sometimes we’ll have
a lethargic price action in this indices or another out of the three that would be the s p
the nasdaq and the dow i personally don’t trade the dow that much but there’s a lot of my students
that love trading the ym but ym is the symbol for the futures contract and these three
markets have the luxury for you that may not have the capability to put up to like 17 000
margin if you were going to trade one full contract of the nasdaq futures uh most brokers unless you’re using a discount broker they’re going to require
you to have deep pockets and sense that you’re going to have that about 17 000 and about 12 000 and a half for an
e-mini s p for futures contract okay you take basically
a fraction of that and you can trade a micro on each one of these markets but obviously it reduces
the number of the tick multiplier because you’re trading with a lot less technically
leverage so i’m going to get into all that but i just kind of like want to
begin the conversation informally but also that’s kind of like show you what it is that i do
versus what other people do okay so
i’m not trying to you know point my finger at anyone in particular but if you look around on
youtube there are people out there that try to make a big stink about themselves
and they’ll try to show results that may or may not be real i’m not here to disparage that they could be
actually treating a live account i don’t personally care but anyone that trades on think or swim they can recognize this
chart right away i posted a results and updated
reflection on the thinkorswim or td ameritrade account and it’s on my community tab
i promise i won’t beat you up too much with the community tab but that’s my way of reaching out to you so if you
subscribe to the channel and then when you subscribe to the channel you want to toggle all notifications you want to
click that little uh i think it’s like a bell icon and then all notifications that way anytime
i post in my community tab it’ll let you know otherwise it won’t let you know so it’s my replacement to twitter which in
my opinion sucks so if we look at
the ebb and flow of all this here where the market’s trading up and
between here and here it’s not a small number of handles it’s a
pretty respectful amount of handles it’s not a couple it’s not a handful
and then up here it’s a reversal and it comes back down and i buy it back here in reverse so i’m selling short here
and i’m buying long here 740 the 720 that’s 20 handles going long
here at 720 i’m abbreviating the number just for brevity’s sake
getting out at 732 12 handles then going along here
57 56 and then getting out at 784 and a half then going short
at 798 and covering at 6.75 so i’ll ask you which one of these
trades do you think is the one that you want to learn again putting all aside
the idea that you probably want to do all these but i’m not promising you that okay
i’m gonna take you into how to find this setup here
notice the number of handles i’m not promising you get this many handles but the setups and the logic behind it will help you
find these types of frameworks framework is the foundation to a trading
model so you have to have an understanding what is you’re looking for and that’s really the only thing i’m introducing tonight is the idea of what
it is i’m promising to educate you with so that way you can go in and find these setups on your own
you will not need to be a slave to some kind of black box system you
don’t need to be a part of some kind of signal generating gimmick you don’t need to be a part of a signal service you can
find these on your own independent that’s exactly what i’m trying to frame in all of my students i
do that with my mentorship students that paid me for education now here you are in my youtube channel
i’m telling you the same thing i’m teaching independence that way you’re not requiring any hand holding by me
once you understand the rules and you go through the processes and things i’m going to teach you how to practice with
you will not need anything except for the chart itself that’s it
and that’s how in my opinion and you can argue with this if you want but i could care less
if you could any of you would challenge the idea that independent thinking is not the best way of doing it you want to
be able to be unshackled okay and if you’re part of a signal service or if you’re part of a a approach that
requires you to use a black box system you’re kind of held captive aren’t you
so if you look at this this chart is clean
except for these little bubbles actually show you the transactions you don’t really get
any kind of well distortion
from your reading of price action i don’t have a lot of graffiti on the chart okay but the main takeaway here is
i want you to understand that i don’t hunt for three to five handles and consider that legendary
okay now can you be profitable if you take high frequency trades
and you do these types of trades absolutely that’s what algos do algorithms do that but i’m trying to show you
by contrast that there is a way that you can find setups that are outside that
parameter of very small little handles and doing lots of contracts so if you’re looking at this here and this
was say you’re trading and you’re trading a nasdaq micro account
you’re not making a lot of money on these swings okay i’m not making a lot of money on these
swings but i’m able to find these swings and it’s not these small little
increments okay i’m going to teach you skill sets that focus primarily on this
okay you want to find a nice price leg intraday i’m not promising you how to
buy sell short buy sell short buy sell short that’s that’s mine okay i’m not teaching that
and then somebody’s like oh you’re a jerk you’re this you’re that whatever i didn’t promise that that’s why i set
the stage in the first introduction video so that way we know what it is i’m teaching you
if anyone of you here don’t want to learn how to take this type of trade you’re welcome to not continue and turn
this video off and go watch whoever okay but i think if you give it a chance you’ll
find some amazing things that bring clarity to reading price action
all right so we’re looking at the nasdaq futures march delivery contract and this
is a trading view chart if you’ve never used tradingview.com the way you would pull this symbol up is
nqh2022 okay and this is a weekly chart
and i want you to think about each week before the new trading week begins
preferably on the weekend okay the idea is you want to try to get a read on what you think that next weekly
candle is going to do is it going to go higher or it’s going to go lower you’re not trying to predict the close
of the weekly candle that’s important okay you just want to see before this weekly candle opened up
all we had was this indecisive candle okay do you think that this candle that would
have formed and opened here is more likely to go higher or lower
obviously with the benefit of hindsight here but i can tell you all of my students know we’ve been looking for lower prices and i’ll just give you a
quick short list as the reasons why number one seasonality okay seasonal tendencies it tends to go down around
this time anyway we also have discussions about how the fed is going to raise interest rates
stock market does not like that we’re also in earnings season there’s a lot of volatility because of earnings
and those factors plus the underlying tone of the marketplace which i’ll show you when we get into the daily chart it just
well it’s heavy and this is where it was going to draw to okay did i expect this entire range to be
delivered in one week no that’s not important the point is i’m expecting the weekly candle to expand on
the lower end okay or go down and gravitate towards this low which it hasn’t broken yet but i think that’s
what we’re probably going to aim for on sunday’s opening going in the monday’s trading so that’s where i think it’s
drawing to and that’s the component i want you to focus on with
your analysis what is the market likely to draw to when i say draw two think of it as
price being a paper clip okay and then you you have this magnetic
impulse that specific price levels and seasonality okay will
put on price it’ll cause price to gravitate towards certain levels and the
measure of speed and magnitude that it moves to get to these levels you learn that over experience that’s
not something i can transfer it’s something you have to practice and see and study and you get a rhythm for it
okay every educator knows what i mean by that and every student that’s been trained successfully by any other educator will
not understand exactly what i mean by that you just get a feel for it it’s experience there’s no way of defining outside of that
in the early stages of your development you want to at least try to focus your attention on where that weekly candle is
going to do now here’s the thing it may start the first half of the week or maybe just one day expand lower and
if you get a setup in that that’s it you’re done that’s how you start working towards
consistency no student ever should try to try every single session
every single day because the only thing you’re doing is building an expectation that you’re going to be able to do this
every single day properly and then if you do get a run of profitability as soon as you get a
losing trade it’s going to blow your mind and you’re going to want to correct it quickly and you’re going to
start making irrational decisions and then you enter that loser cycle i’ve talked about many times in the youtube
channel so the only thing you’re looking for is a likely
movement higher or lower based on the weekly candle okay that’s all you’re doing
that sets your initial bias for the week on the daily chart you’re looking for swing highs and swing lows to get your
liquidity and majority of your trading and the draw on liquidity what makes the market
go higher or lower it’s predominantly found on this time frame okay so majority of your analysis should really
be linked to this time frame right here you have to have an assumption
whether you’re going to be expecting that weekly candle to expand higher or lower that’s your weekly bias but then
you have to go into the daily chart and figure out basically where you are in the grand scheme of things on that
weekly range expanding higher or lower because we’re looking for lower prices
and we’re looking for weakness the expectation is we want to see every short-term low
like this would be a short-term low this will be a short-term low and underneath those lows is going to be sell stops
okay that’s liquidity when i say learn to start looking for where the
market’s going to draw to it’s drawing to one of two things okay
it’s drawing two stops which is liquidity or it’s running to an imbalance
now what’s that mean above old highs buy stops
below old lows sell stops imbalances is something like this over
here where you have one single candle pass higher and the previous candle’s high is
here and next candle is low is here so it only went up one candle nothing moved down the overlap with that same delivery
on that price candle there so in other words that’s an imbalance it’s only
going higher and nothing else is here to offset that and efficiently deliver
price on the opposite end now you’ve probably heard of the theory auction theory okay and
folks hear me try to communicate some of these things and they’ll run away with oh he’s just talking about auction
theory and it’s not just like when they see me do a rectangle or a box on a chart and you’ll see one in this video it’s not supply
and demand okay it’s just what it is you’ll see it and you’ll know right away after you’ve been with
me for a couple weeks that this is entirely unique and there’s nothing else like it and i’m certain the majority of
you are going to fall in love with this model so we’re looking for lower prices we’re looking for an expansion i’m using the
benefit of hindsight but i can promise you again this was discussed we were looking for lower prices in my paid group and if i
did not say that i have a lot of students that are making youtube channels they are welcome to come out and say i’m a liar
so we’re looking at the daily chart we’re going to drop down into the hourly chart okay now what i have
here is a framework for looking at the weekly range on an hourly chart so all i did
was beginning on midnight new york time monday’s candle
and then friday’s close and in the beginning of friday’s trading at midnight okay
now what i’m delineating here is the fact that we had a nice sell-off on thursday
and the market went into consolidation every night notice what happens here on friday
this is that old low in the daily chart that’s what we’re thinking and we’re assuming that it’s going to
draw to because that daily chart there’s lots of liquidity and large fund traders large
institutional traders institutional mindset investors
will be looking at these old lows in old highs and
liquidity providers will be looking to take business in around these same levels
so if we know that this level down here is the old daily low again let me take
it back up to the chart on the daily chart that’s this low right here okay by dropping down into the hourly chart
that level is here all i’m doing is transposing those daily levels right to this hourly
chart the entire week has been bearish okay it’s been going lower since the
beginning then we had consolidation in here the market creates this short-term high
and this short-term low what rests above that short-term high if you’ve taken notes and been paying attention it’s buy
stops what’s resting below this low here sell stops watch closely
the market trades down initially and takes out the sell stops why would it do that first
this is inducing shorts okay so it engineers liquidity
even if the idea is that they want to take the market down to this
level if it’s been consolidating i like to see them do this type of move
here where it drops down first it’s kind of like a sucker play anybody that has a cell stop below here
they want to sell on weakness they’re going to get tripped into the marketplace so now they’re triggered in
short and then they start doing a run against those traders and
against those that were already short from this high so what are they doing the market’s being driven higher
and the algorithm is going to attack that buy stock liquidity pool why would they want to do that number
one it’s going to punish those individuals here that once short when it drives above this high here it
sends all those spy stops into market orders flooding the marketplace
that gives a huge influx of willing buyers at a high price
which is the perfect counterparty to smart money that wants to sell at a high price remember the market wants to go down
here so when it dries up to here those buy stops are the counter party or
the other side of a smart money trader that’s wanting to go short because they’re going to sell short they got to
sell it to somebody who wants to buy the high price that’s why the market does this okay in
your notes you want to record anytime a significant price move lower is expected
always anticipate some measure of a stop hunt on buy stops or short term high being taken out
obviously it’s reversed when you’re looking for higher prices generally you’ll see a
short term low taken out and sell stops taken before you see a very pronounced rally higher
don’t take my word for it go through your charts and you’ll see it’s actually occurring almost on a daily basis
so we’re going to drop down into a 15 minute time frame so that same old low level down here and
that high i just mentioned on the hourly chart and the low on the hour chart is now been defined with a small little
line segment okay so we have a trend line here and a trend line here that’s the extent of a trend line that’s
it i only use them to highlight to my students these levels are not on my chart i’m watching a naked chart okay
you while you’re developing you should have these levels drawn out in your chart because it helps you build and
ingrain the idea that this is where liquidity is it keeps you focused on that because it’s easy to look at all these
candles forming if you have the luxury watching in life and you can lose sight of where you are i
mean once you lose your bearings it’s really confusing and this helps you
keep those bearings in mind and what do i mean by that well i mentioned how the market dropped down initially
and that takes the cell stops out so cell side liquidity has been attacked
traders are now tripped in going short if they sold on a break trying to be a breakout artist and then
the algorithms go right back up to an area where it’s been cleanly delivered relative equal highs see how this high
here right before it dropped is basically the same high here notice that so retail traders see this and they
trust it as what resistance so the books always say
put your buy stop if you’re going to go short right above and clear level of resistance
well these levels work for a short period of time but majority of the time
you see this event right here and this is how i teach my students to go in and look for those types of events because what did i just tell you moments ago
about looking for significant price moves before there’s a significant price move of any real magnitude or importance
generally there’s going to be a stop hunt that takes place right before that price delivery occurs
so what does it look like you have relative equal highs this high and as high the market goes up when we’re what we’re
expecting lower prices on that weekly chart we’re on the last day of the week it’s already been heavy it’s weak and the
only thing it’s been doing is consolidate and the first thing it did was broke out to the downside tripping what traders in
a breakout to go short so now they have traders caught on the wrong side offside
and now they want to take the market up here where those buy stops are going to be resting for those that were smart enough
to sell short here or here and didn’t get out below here
so the larger pool of liquidity is going to be resting here because it’s in sync with the downtrend and everybody that
was short the day before they seen this high form and once it broke below this low here they all
rushed and trailed their stop loss right above that and i understand if you’re new and you think
well this is easy to explain in hindsight but i want to remind you go back and look at the first slide i showed you those were actual entries
that’s a live account through thinkorswim charles schwab that was the clearing firm that did the brokers side
of the business okay so i’m not showing you a demo account i’m not showing you paper trading that
those were real entries okay they were real reversals the whole business but the main thing was i showed you that
larger trade this is going to be the framework that i’m teaching you how to find it okay
but this pool of liquidity once this occurs you want to drop down to your lower time frames and start looking for
something specific and let’s go into these lower time frames and find out what that is
okay here’s a two minute chart why a two minute chart well two minute one minute or three
minute or five five minutes still has a lot of room for imbalances to occur underneath that time
frame and what i mean by that the one minute two minute three minute chart tends to
be the best for finding the imbalances for indices okay don’t take my word for that
okay if you’re looking for high frequency setups intraday the one two or three minute chart are just
beautiful they just offer a real good clarity the reason why because the high frequency trading algorithms are
operating on nothing really higher than three minutes but majority of the time they’re like seconds okay
15 second 30 second 45 seconds 60 second intervals okay and what they’re looking for are these small little imbalances
and what does that look like well we have that run on the buy stops here okay remember that
old high here the old high here old high here it runs right on through that
once this occurs on that higher time frame 15 minute time frame
you want to drop down to the lower time frames and i’m using the two minute chart because this is exactly what i was using to find that imbalance and trade
off of it okay the market creates a short-term low here
and then it breaks below that this is key this is called a break in market structure now the foundations and
underlying framework is we’re in a market that’s what weekly bearish we’re expecting that weekly
candle to expand lower it’s been expanding all week so we have momentum on our side
we have a consolidation that’s occurred and we had to pull liquidity engineered with these relative equal highs and the
market broke out to the downside first and then they ran on the highs so once it went here
we don’t rush in there just go short because it went above old highs we’re looking for some specific signature that
tips its hand to you okay and i promise you when you start going through your charts and it’s going to be homework for you you’re going to see this occurring
almost every single day and if it’s not doing it this way it’s doing it the opposite direction as a buy okay again
don’t take my word for it you’re going to be flabbergasted you’re like flabbergasted when you see how many
times this thing forms every single week okay it’s many times throughout the
intraday charts it creates this type of move but it runs the stops then we have a short term low and then
it breaks below it so now we have a break in market structure okay once this low is broken you’re going to look for
this little area here that’s that imbalance i mentioned in the beginning right so what’s happening is the market’s
going to go right up inside that area there and that’s where you want to sell
now if you don’t sell there you can drop down to a lower time frame one minute chart if this is a three-minute chart
you can go down to the limited chart and look for that to occur on that time frame as well and it many times will
form if you’re looking at a lower time frame like to say this was a five minute chart and you looked at a one minute chart you’d find one down in here it’s a
matter of scaling down in your time frames because once you have an underlying premise to the market now likely to go
lower it becomes an easy thing to look for these types of things so
in your chart once you’re developing this idea and learning it you’re going to
highlight this candle is low this candle is high and this right here is what i teach my students as a fair value gap
okay you don’t have those in books okay you don’t have any of that kind of stuff out there it’s something i introduced
back in 2016 and obviously a lot of people discovered how
good it is and they try to make courses with it but i’m gonna not touch that right here
but the idea is it wants to go up into that imbalance there and once it does that as soon as it enters that area
the algorithm that delivers price now some of you may not know what that means
and some of you may not even agree with it you may think that this is made up or it’s contrived i promise you
if you spend time with this you’re going to quickly come to the conclusion that there absolutely is an algorithm and
it’s manipulating the markets every single day every single tick it’s completely controlled okay period
you’re led to believe it’s buying and selling pressure now if i go back and use that analogy where it went down here
first then go up here some of you may argue see that’s the buying and selling pressure no it’s not
it’s liquidity now you may already say well we’re arguing semantics no i’m telling you what’s going on this is
the logic this is how these markets book okay once you see these patterns over and
over and over again it’s very easy to execute on them but the impulse to want to do it the first time you see it
because you watch this video that is going to be problematic for you so you’re going to do a certain
number of weeks and months of back testing there’s no escaping that you have to do it any skill set any
teacher educator system whatever okay whatever they’re going to give you there’s going to be some kind of growing
period where you have to trial and error fix the problems that you have about yourself and i’ve literally taken your
attention to a very specific framework and set up notice that some of you may think i’m still talking too much but i’m
taking you right into the heart of the matter this is what it looks like this is what you’re looking for okay these are the
fingerprints of that setup these repeat
so if you know what they are and what those components are that make up this setup
you’ll be able to find them but focus on the imbalance after the market structure
breaks so this big candle here it breaks down look at the next candle opens and trades
higher and stops right there so from this candle’s low and this candle is high when this candle starts trading as soon as it opens and it runs right up
into that that’s a short you can go right into sell short be done now where’s your stock gonna be
well you can put it above this high here or you can put it above this candle’s
high whichever your risk parameters allow for okay if you’re trading the micro which is
again it’s not a lot of money per tick so the multiplier for that is very small if you
trade the larger full futures contract and if it moves 100 points
and they can do it real quick it can bring it pretty bad so you may have the leverage to trade with a discount broker
okay you may have the initial margin to trade with a discount broker but you may not have the wherewithal and the skill
set to navigate this market and that’s the only thing i’m trying to provide here as an alternative because
there’s a lot of individuals out there that will promote the idea that you can go out there with discount broker and just clean up
yeah if you know what you’re doing but you don’t need a discount broker to be profitable
okay looking at this further we’re going to look at the logic in here and i want you
to think about after this forms and you see that as your choice setup or entry
if it starts to move lower you can still get in it there’s no reason not to think that you
can’t get in it here or in here it’s close to or in close proximity to where
that area is as an entry once we take out a low though once that occurs then it becomes a matter of your
chasing price and if you try to get in especially if you like use a market order you may see it trade right to this
low and say okay now i believe it’s going to go down you put a market order to sell short and then slip it to get you down here that creates a larger area
of risk that you have to assume it’s just it’s problematic you want to learn to trust going short when the market’s going higher
and that feels scary at first but once you start seeing this pattern form it becomes easy to trust it and in fact
you want to be doing that you only selling short expecting lower prices
right when the candle is going up and retail traders can’t grasp that many times it’s just like
it goes against the logic because they think i gotta have confirmation all the books say i have to have confirmation
and that’s somebody that’s coming in late that’s someone that doesn’t have read price they can’t really follow it
and usually they’re the people that will trade short with additional shell you know sell stocks they’ll put sell stocks
below the marketplace and then that’s the momentum entry for them and it’s kind of a no-brainer in fast markets it
yeah it works but if you don’t know what you’re doing you try to do that in a market that’s consolidating or about the reverse it
hands you your backside okay so if you’re looking at this framework here
and we’ve taken the buy stops we have our entry pattern here what would you be looking for
as a downside objective well i’m going to teach you the liquidity matrix okay and
sounds pretty cool sounds neat and all that but watch what it is this here is your range
this is the low of the day and this is the high of the day thus far so if we take that range and split it
from the low to the high to get the midpoint all of this can be determined by a simple 50 level on a fibonacci so
you drag your fib from this high down to that lower vice versa and have your 50 level highlighted
then anything above that 50 level this is referred to from an algorithmic stance as a premium
market it means it is expensive now markets can stay in a premium for a while
and not go to a discount which would be below the 50 point okay 50
anything down here is a discount if you’re bearish if you’re going short you want to look at the previous range
where are you at inside that range so when this formed here that little fair value gap once that formed
you’re thinking okay we are in a premium so algorithms will want to go to a
discount that’s the opposing side of the marketplace so if it’s going short here
it’s driving the market lower what does that mean the algorithm is going to start pricing lower you can have all the
buyers in the world come in if the algorithm is in a cell program and it’s going lower it does not matter
it’s going to reprice lower and lower lower and then what will happen is those buyers that may come in with a huge influx of volume they’re going to get
crushed and they get squeezed you ever hear that term oh this is a bear squeeze this is a bull squeeze
all that is an excuse for them not to know why the algorithm is doing what it’s doing that’s it that’s all it is it’s an out okay i’m telling you this is
what’s really going on so the market’s moving from this premium high this specific entry point to a level
below the 50 of this range this low and this high
now i want you to again go back and rewind the video once we’re done and look at that execution
page where i showed you my entries going back and forth up and down up and down and where i got out at where i got in at
okay i want you to think about what below this level here the 50 level
what is resting below here
cell stops so now think about the idea of someone like you and i that would see this ideal
entry as a short we have to sell to get in that short how do we get out of that short we got to buy it back or cover it
by buying well we’re going to find willing sellers at a low price relative
to this point here they’re willing already sitting down there with their cell stops right below that low
now look closely what else resides right near that low
do you see it pause the video before i show it to you because it kind of ruins the experience because if you find it and i don’t tell
it it feels good right there is that imbalance i
mentioned okay it’s only one single candle passing up and the previous candle is high and the
next candle is low that area right there is an imbalance from this area here it went down below
the 50 level and attacked these cell stops and completely closed in this imbalance
so every point of this candle’s high to this candle is low that range with the
candle only going up that’s a buy side imbalance
it has to have an equal delivery to be efficiently priced and booked by the algorithm
it goes down and completely closes it back in with down movement notice the candle on this here opens and then
trades down so it fulfills its role of balancing the buy side offering
now the sell side offering so that is an efficiently delivered price move
precision elements from the entry here down to here everything else after that for the rest
of the day i didn’t care about even though i had an objective of that old daily low i wasn’t expecting it to run
into this particular day and that’s why i didn’t participate anymore the rest of the day
in hindsight i wish i would have left a small position i want to just let it go but you’re going to have that you’re never
going to be right about everything all the time every single day you’re going to leave things on the table you’re going to get in too early you’re going
to hold too long you’re not going to buy enough you’re not going to sell enough there’s always going to be some reasons why you didn’t do something right so
don’t beat yourself up about it okay but if you can find elements like this repeating in the price action can you
agree with me that that is amazing precision and this is the logic i used to do that
trade the very trade that i showed you that was the largest one in the example of
saying which one would you rather learn how to do i basically just handed you an atm
machine okay this repeats every
single week every single week now i want you to count the number of the handles
in this move let’s say you got in at uh well this say
you got an 800 14 800 it started to go down you trust it okay
we’re going to go short ideally you want to enter as it goes into that but it’s going to take time for you to trust that
but let’s say you got into 14 800. if you got out down here like i did i
exited as it went right to the top of that range right here this range here that’s the
top of it once it went below that that was it for me that closed the trade
is that five handles is that 10 handles is that 20 handles that 30 handles is that 50 handles
no it’s over 100 and some now
let’s assume for a moment that you get good at this or i get the inclination that i want to go
to some kind of a deep discount broker and i go in and i do trades like this and i’m putting on 15 to 25
full futures contracts what do you think the results are going to be
yup so not everything is going to be easy right away and
you’re not going to see these things happen just because you sit in front of charts you have to study and you have to
practice and by experience of looking at old moves and watching real price action as best as you can if you can’t watch it
live trading view has a replay button where you can watch the candles kind of form
but they’re a little stilted because it’s not completely painting the candle okay
and you can’t practice with entering like that you can only just study how price moved and gravitated towards certain
levels it’s the best thing you can have if you if you least consider doing that much that’s good but
if you really want to take it to the next level and say you’re running a business or if you’re going to school or you have a job
and you can’t watch the time frame around the opening of the index features
and i like watching it around 8 30 in the morning new york local time to 11 o’clock there’s usually a set up in
there that i’m gonna be able to find obviously you’ve seen i did multiple setups and executions today but the point is this that’s like that sweet
little spot in the morning that i focus on i teach that in this youtube channel i teach it in my paid mentorship group
so you’re getting real stuff here it’s not something that was contrived i didn’t just make it up because this day
worked out my favor my students recognize these things also and
these are simple elements that repeat what you’re looking for is a run on liquidity
buy stops or sell stops if you’re bearish you’re looking for buy stocks to be ran
then a break in market structure lower a short term low being broken that’s what it looks like right here short-term
swing low we have a candle high i’m sorry candle higher to the left with with its low here then you have the low
of this candle and the next candle is higher low than this one so you have a swing low formed if you have that and
you have a break below that if it happens that creates a gap like this
that’s what you’re looking for when it trades up into that you can go short or if you want to use cell stops you can
use a cell stop in this candle here and this let it trip you in and then use the high of that candle as
your stop that may be too wide for you but i mentioned the logic around this is you’re using a micro okay micros aren’t
that big of a deal it’s not a lot of money okay you’re not risking a full futures leverage it’s very very small
so if you’re looking at these types of setups and you can find them forming
repeatedly over and over and over again and you study them you’re gonna see that you don’t need to
get these little five handle moves these little ten handle moves you can make a living doing that
don’t get me wrong i’m not trying to say that people cannot be profitable and wildly profitable
but when you learn how to do something like this and you’re able to pull down this number
of handles and then you have sound money management
nothing compares to it folks these are the things that i use when you watched on when i was on twitter and i
ran up the demo accounts really high these are the types of setups i was using
these types of setups and as the account grew it was more demo account leverage
well i’m not using a demo account right now i’m showing you with a think or swim and anybody that knows think or swim when
i’m showing you those screenshots the paper trading shows as arms everything on that page is orange when
it’s a live account it’s green okay also here’s the rub
with a demo account it’s just demo demo demo dome okay i’m not trying to promote the idea
that you’re gonna get rich notice that account hasn’t gone bonkers
it hasn’t ran up to a million dollars because this mentorship is to hopefully inspire you to pick up a skill that
if you deem it useful and you decide at your own discretion and your own timing and you assume that
risk on your own because i’m not going to tell you to do this if you decide to get really good at this and you put money behind it
that’s a skill set that could i’m not promising but it could alleviate some of the problems with what i believe is
coming in terms of financial hardship not just in america but everywhere jobs are getting harder and harder to have
the economy is a mess so how do we answer that how do we get another income stream coming in this is
in my opinion this is one of the ways that you can at least investigate the idea of doing it all right so i’m going to give you some homework and closing
i want you to go through all of the e-mini futures contract charts okay just like i showed you here
these time frames go back and look at the presentation and see what the time frames i gave you listen to what i gave
you in terms of audio commentary that is enough in fact i gave you a ton
and it may have your head spinning if you’re brand new to me or if you’re brand new to technical analysis or
trading you may feel like this is too fast do not send me an email i promise you
the lessons i have planned will help eliminate and answer majority of the things you’re going to ask
just try to study and keep up with the pace that i’m going to put you through which isn’t going to be all that bad but
as we progress deeper into the teachings many of the questions that are going to come up or when you start going into the
homework assignment where you’re looking at old data an intraday chart is anything less than a daily chart so like a four hour chart that’s intraday one
hour chart that’s intraday five minute three minute two minute one minute all those time frames are intraday
what you’re going to be looking for are breaks in market structure after a pool of liquidity okay buy stops or sell
stops they’ve been taken in an opposing direction of your weekly
expected range in other words are you expecting higher prices or lower prices on weekly range so if you’re looking for
lower prices your focus is on a run above an old high once that forms
then you’re looking for a break in market structure on a lower time frame once that occurs and you have an
imbalance that’s your trigger okay and then you split that range that was created find out where the 50
is and then if you’re selling short you want to find something like an old low or an imbalance to aim for
as your target and you want to get the closest target don’t try to get fancy and say okay well i think it’s going to
go down to that lowest low and try to use that for your exit because sometimes these markets can deny
you that so low hanging fruit is how i teach you want to have the easiest target and then
allow the market to go farther and you just not be a part of it it’s okay
is it is 120 530 handles in an index not good enough
i think it’s good enough but i’m probably just biased but the homework assignment is again you going through
the charts using the logic i framed in this introduction lesson looking for breaking market structure i
also have lessons in this youtube channel that talks about market structure breaks and things like that and then you’re going to look for the
imbalance in price which is that fair value cap then you’re going to determine
where an opposing higher low resides then log and back test the number of handles you see in hindsight examples in
other words how much did it offer and you’re going to get a collection of doing that the next lesson i’m actually going to
show you how to go back into the charts and look for them how to log them in your journal and
give you more insights about how you can find these setups that repeat every single week okay so again i’m going to
build on this foundation in the next episode the next episode will be next tuesday and the time upload will be 10
o’clock new york local time hopefully you’ve enjoyed this one and so i’ll talk to you next time i wish you good luck and good trading
Transcript
all right folks welcome back all right so this is the tuesday january 25th 2022
ict mentorship on the youtube channel all right so this is the internal range liquidity and
market structure shift lecture
all right so i gave you homework on the community tab if you have not been paying attention to that that’s where i’m kind of keeping you abreast as to
what you should be expecting next or something that just comes to mind that i feel like sharing so this is the link i
sent out the other day and i wanted you to go through this particular chart
and look for reasons that provided the market structure shift and the buy side and sell side liquidity
so if you have not done that please stop the video and do that now otherwise you’re cheating yourself of learning
opportunity all right so here is that chart
again 15 minute time frame on the e-mini nasdaq 100 futures contract for march delivery 2022.
and take your attention over here okay this old low
and these relative equal highs see that old low below that is cell stops
and relative equal highs above that is buy stops now you could have used this high here there’s nothing inherently wrong about
that but whenever i see equal highs like this might and if it’s higher than an old high over here i’m
going to use that so that way there’s a little bit of insight for you for your study journal
the sell side liquidity you can see that the market trades down hits that runs through it
then rallies all the way back up clearing equal highs so the buy stops have been taken here
okay so at both of these price points here and here
that’s the i guess the point at which you’ll look
for or anticipate a market structure shift you don’t force it okay i see a lot of
people try to teach my concepts it’ll talk about market structure breaks or shifts and we’ll use that term
interchangeably but for intraday i want you to think about
intraday market structure shifts because it’s not necessarily a break in market structure that leads to
prolonged multi-day movement okay
what do i mean by that if you see a market structure that’s bearish and it’s broken to the downside
intraday that may just lead to an intraday price leg that may eventually
see that high be taken out in the same day so that’s why i’m using the term
market structure shift not market structure break for our conversation here on this
mentorship just know that when i’m gonna lean on that term market structure break
it means a little bit more in context versus an intraday shift in market structure just means that there’s likely
a downside draw or an upside draw intraday by saying the term shift okay so there’s a little bit
of semantics there all right so we have both of these areas
here and here where there would be a likelihood of a market structure shift
up here we look for a fake run above here so that fake run above how do we know
it’s going to be a market structure shift that’s bearish i get that question a lot even from mentorship students
what you’re looking for is the evidence i’m going to show you here tonight okay forget everything else everybody else says about market structure breaks and
shifts and all that stuff this is it okay this is the brass tacks there’s absolutely nothing else that you
need to know about it i promise you if they add anything to it it’s just because they want to sound and look
different but this is the algorithmic perspective of a market structure shift in today
now keep this price level in mind so it’s essentially fourteen thousand six hundred
and fourteen thousand eight twenty we’re just eyeballing it okay
now dropping all the way down into a two minute chart this is that same particular day
here’s those relative equal highs and this run down here
okay if you recall
14 6 and around that 14 860 or so okay
if you look at this market structure without having the levels on your chart
it’s easy to get lost in all the quote unquote noise the uninitiated and i know it’s going to
razz the people that don’t care to really learn here but the uninitiated folks that will
watch a video or listen to some of the lectures i’ll put out they’re trying to bring something in
they’re trying to bring in their preconceived notions and ideas about what they think they understand about
markets or technical analysis or something in price action and i want to kind of like
allow you to just put that aside for a moment and just imagine this chart
is the first time you looked at price action for the first time and that’s hard but kind of like strip away everything else that you want to
bring to the conversation no order block discussion no breaker no none of that stuff okay supply and demand elliott
wave all that garbage if you look at this price action here when we had this low form
right before this low was formed there’s a swing high right there
now in the first mentorship video i gave you i mentioned that high frequency trading algorithms
will use market structure on a three minute two minute and one minute chart many times sub one minute that would be like
45 second 30 second 15 second intervals okay
what the algorithms are actually doing and this is also going to correct a lot of
people out there because they put out misinformation it’s so nonsensical but
i’m challenging you to go into your charts and see if this is not what’s actually going on because it happens
every day if high frequency algorithms are operating every single day then these signatures will be in the chart
okay if you look at this short term high here
right before this low formed when this high is taken out right there on that
candle that’s significant only only
if this run down here has traded into
sell stops okay below an old love some kind it could be a a double bottom it could be a single low
okay but it’s got to be trading under some retail idea that would be viewed as
support up here the same thing
we’re trading above highs so we know that above old highs
a neophyte perspective will be these are unknown orders so therefore that’s a flawed perspective on price
action how do you know there’s liquidity up there how do you know there’s buy stops up there it’s just logic it’s simple look at the chart
everybody’s trying to do something based on some kind of theory logic whatever some system
there’s buyers and sellers coming in at all times their buying and selling quote unquote
strength or pressure has absolutely no bearing on where these prices are going to go
i know that may shake individuals that think they know something about the markets oh i have an uncle that used to be on the
floor of the chicago board of trade and blah blah blah the mercantile exchange guys say this i don’t care okay i don’t
care what any of those folks say because they didn’t design the algorithm
so again put all those you know talking points and everybody
else’s opinion you’ve adopted because you probably heard someone else talk about it and you subscribe to the review because
it’s easier just to do that instead of going and looking at it for yourself and that’s what i’m asking you to do
i’m telling you this is my personal belief you’re going to see proof of these
things in a live account execution but i want you to see the logic behind
it because if you can see this you’ll be light years ahead of everyone else and you’ll laugh
in the face of all these people that are going to tell you you’re wasting your time trying to learn this i promise you
this lesson is going to change a lot for you
when this run above these relative equal highs happens right there you’re anticipating
a market structure shift you’re not forcing it you’re not trying to get ahead of it
okay i don’t think any of you are going to have the skill set to do that there are ways to know when to sell short right above that not even wait for the
shift in market structure just like there’s ways to know to be a buyer down here without seeing that
short term high broken then looking for a buy
over here the opposite see this swing low let me go back to this for a second
we have this high on this candle then we have the candle right after that here the highest one
and then the lower high of this candle here so that’s a swing high very simple little pattern but it means
a lot when it’s in the proper context when this high is broken with this
particular candle right there that is significant only on the basis that we have taken liquidity out of the
marketplace that’s it so when it broke this short term high this is more meaningful
and then the market will start to seek buy stops okay or buy side liquidity that would
rest above here here and here now i shared an example of live
executions and i was teaching on the idea of utilizing micros which are essentially
two dollars per handle okay so or 50 cents per tick
this chart is nasdaq e-mini this would represent twenty dollars
per handle and there’s four ticks in each handle there’s your twenty dollars per handle okay so again what that means
is fourteen six eighty to fourteen six eighty one that’s one handle or four ticks
there are some that will doubt the idea that you can trade all these little
internal swings okay and i’m going to give you some insights on
how i was doing it okay the main context of this lesson is for you to go
in to your charts and try to prove me wrong
okay that’s the challenge here that’s your homework i want you to learn what i’m doing in this lesson
here and then you go into your charts back testing and i’ll show you what that looks like what does it mean to be back
testing and what you’re looking for and how you’re going to screen capture all those things but your
mission is to go into the charts and look for this not being true
okay this is exactly what i did on baby pips back in 2010
i told everybody do not take my word for it don’t take my word for it go into the
charts and see if this is true or not i believe it but i don’t want to try to convince you
because i won’t you’ll convince yourself once you start seeing it it’s it it’s over there’s no argument
after that okay but it’s simple logic very simple this is a very clean chart is it not
all i’m going to do is add a few annotations and this is about as extensive
of lipstick we put on our chart i know it’s shocking right
can you still see the candles because it might be a little obstructive i’m being facetious you see these guys
out there with these charts that have graffiti all over it you can’t even see the price candle nothing you can’t you can’t see any of it
but there’s all kinds of overlays of all kinds of nonsense which means absolutely nothing because algorithms could care
less about any of that stuff triangles harmonic this crabs
it’s crazy i know but hey everybody’s gotta have a religion so here’s those
cell stops so this little area here shaded in that’s a area where cell stops would be residing
below that 14 600 level okay on that 15 minute time frame
so the market dove into that liquidity and you may or may not know that is a
buy you don’t need to you anticipate a shift in market structure
when the market rallies above when does that happen on this candle right here see that little light bulb that’s when you’re thinking okay now i have a
condition in the marketplace that i might see an opportunity intraday
let’s see if there’s further evidence to that high is taken here we traded above it it
does not need to close above that okay real important
once that candle closes and this candle opens you’re gonna monitor this candle and you want to see
as soon as this candle closes does it create that fair value gap
if it creates a fair value gap again that’s a candle with a high one single pass up
next candle has a load it doesn’t completely overlap all this that’s a fair value real simple okay
this candle is where you would look to potentially trade at the earliest because now there’s a gap there the
market trades down into that boom takes off here is insight
that everybody needs to understand because they’re out here running around on youtube trying to teach order block theory
order blocks okay i invented it it’s mine no one talked about it before me and i
first mentioned it in 2010 on baby pips prior to that 1996 i was only teaching
it to people one-on-one in teachings that’s it okay you can’t find it in books prior to
that it’s mine no one else taught it before me it is mine so i’m going to correct all of you
today so that way you can teach your people correctly and not hurt them see these down closed candles
see that that’s all one continuous order block
what’s it doing it’s inside that pool of liquidity cell stops
where’s the open on that series of down closed candles right here that’s the price level extending out in
time boom so inside this fair value gap this opening price on the order block that’s
your buy plus three pips or whatever for spread and that’s what you would use for a
limit order hmm that’s pretty neat in it
well price starts to run where above the highs where by slots will be here
above this high here and above this high here now go back and look at the example where
this particular day here i put in orders and i was still learning how to use the
thinkorswim platform and there’s a little toggle box where if you toggle it
it’ll send your order right to the marketplace it won’t let you review it and i had put that on to see if it was
going to show me any kind of information on the screen but i didn’t take it off so what happened was i put that on it
was actually an order that i mistakenly had in so i was hoping to see if it could give me an opportunity to get out of it
and cover with next to nothing or maybe even squeak out a profit it wasn’t having it so i had to reverse and go
back and go short wrote it down and then you’ll see me covering in here and then
going long selling short reversing going short buying long in here
inside the order block rallied up sold the long reversed it
bought it here got out over here and resold for that big run into that okay
that’s what i was doing there’s people out there going to tell you he doesn’t trade that way these people don’t know how i’m trading you have no idea how i’m
trading none of you do okay i’m teaching you obviously for those individuals that are
outside my paid mentorship which is not open so please stop emailing asking people are still
sending me emails can i join no you can’t join be content with this i’m teaching you gold
and it’s costing you nothing but the time to sit down here and if it doesn’t work you’re going to know right away
okay i’m not wasting your time i’m going right into the brass tacks that way the people that are weak minded
will know right away this is it or it’s not that way you’ll know this is too much work for you
and that’s fine go and do whatever you got to do and i wish you good luck but the individuals that really put the time in and test what i’m
challenging to look for you’re going to see it’s there and it repeats like clockwork okay it’s real important you
have that mindset so the buy stops above here that was taken
this swing low forms once this candle closes so this candle we’re watching does it go below that short term low it
does so now we have a shift in market structure that is now bearish only because we’ve taken buy stops
okay if everybody got forms the market rallies up into that you go short there
what are you looking for below here sell stops below here cell
stops below here cell stops and in this fair bay gap here so if you are in a position that has
multiple contracts or say you have a forex trade because this works in
forex too it’s not just limited to futures again i’m just using this asset class because i cut my teeth on these markets
when everybody else was still in elementary school that’s trying to teach today i was trading the s p
okay i probably sound like a young guy but i’m actually getting turned 50. so i’ve been around for a long time 30
years this november 5th 30 years that’s three decades and the things i’m teaching you i’m not
teaching you one trick pony insight these things work on all asset classes now i’m not going to co-sign the
crypto markets because that only my students are reporting that this stuff works there i don’t even mess
around with it that much then though okay but you can take partials
below here i probably wouldn’t do it there but below here here and there’s something you’re saying
why wouldn’t you take them below their ict well if you’re trying to get short here that’s not really that much movement so if you’re going to take some
thing off your trade below that low why not just try to reach for that one and you could get it there right here okay
and then although that low is nice as well below this low and this is what i mentioned on the first
lesson okay elements to a trade setup this is below the 50
level of this high and that low okay so 50 level that’s what we targeting now
this candle’s low was the high end or first objective inside this gap
so that’s your target you’re gonna look for that so you’re looking for low hanging fruit the
easiest target to get to you’re not trying to be perfect and you grow into eventually holding to see if it will
fill in that gap okay this very very always going down to this candle is high
that’s something that you strive for over time
if you understand what i just showed you here that’s a very simple process of looking
for number one liquidity gauging what happens without having to know for certain because you don’t know
you’re not going to know until the market shows its hand this is it showing its hand
okay that’s it now let’s go into a one-minute chart and see how that looks a little bit different
but still has the same characteristics here’s that same price structure
just on a one-minute chart the same logic still there right swing high taken after liquidity has
been traded into this short-term high it’s violated right when this trades
down in here what’s actually occurring okay put this in your notes high frequency algorithms are hammering
they’re just throwing orders in bye bye bye bye bye that is not okay here’s an
important thing that is not causing okay it’s not causing
the market to go higher it’s just
volume that’s coming in the algorithms that deliver price
that offer price they’re constantly offering the price in the marketplace
that’s what’s beginning to spool and go higher okay and regardless of where you want to trade at your limit orders they
may not get filled where you’re trying to buy with a market order you may think you’re getting in at 14 62
but by the time your order is executed and confirmed you’re in 14 664.
that’s slippage okay that’s negative slippage if you were trying to buy it at 14 62
and it filled you at 14 661 that’s positive slippage that’s better than what you were expecting
so when price starts to rally all this is is a default to
the algorithm constantly offering price at a higher price okay and the logic and argument for
anyone who wants to say oh it’s buying selling pressure this guy has no idea he’s talking about i know somebody that used to trade on the floor and he’s
laughing at ict right now okay go into your charts forget that i’ll i’ll let you have that
perspective for a moment for the argument but go into the charts and see if what i’m not suggesting to
you is the truth okay i could sit here and do a complete series on all the things that lead to
what i’m saying is true but none of you will still believe it i’m showing a live account and entries
and executions and they’re still doubting it so no matter what i do there’s going to be people out there but you didn’t do it
wearing orange you didn’t do it in your corvette did you flip which i don’t flip corvettes
you’re getting all kinds of stuff out there nonsense but you don’t see anybody going into that robin’s cup
hello so we’re looking at the swing lower here
market breaks down trades back back up into this back up atmosphere you got here and sells off there’s another favorite
you got right there trades up into that as well this is a one minute chart so it’s giving you multiple
points of execution that you could trade on and then dives
see these two candles here that’s one consecutive bearish order block
the opening price extended out in time why is this a good a bearish order block
because it has that gap and it’s taken liquidity
and there’s a market structure shift there’s your height frequency high power high probability bearish order block
forget everybody else’s interpretation of my concept the order
block that’s it okay what is an older block you do you
see a lot of people asking what is an order block only my students and mentorship know what an order block is okay what it is
it’s just change in the state of delivery okay it’s a change in the state
of delivery the market’s being offered higher higher higher in these two up close candles
how did this series of up close candles begin with this candle’s opening right there
that opening once this candle trades below it
that changes the state of delivery so you go back to that point of reference right there
and that’s why it’s sensitive the algorithm remembers that right there okay that’s all i’m going to give you on
the free mentorship level but that is your answer okay that is what an order block is it
is a change in the state of delivery much in the same way all of this movement down here all these down closed
candles the opening on that candle starts this series of delivery on the downside when that opening price gets violated
here it changes its state of delivery now it was offering
sell side when it goes above that opening now it’s offering buy side what will it be doing
after that it will be looking for buy stops buy stops buy stops because it’s
offering buy side liquidity see you guys don’t even know what you’re talking about you’re trying to teach my
concepts and you have no idea what you’re doing you’re talking about things in the left side of the chart
trade it do it okay you don’t even know what you’re looking
at and you’re hurting the people you call your students and then right away when people
don’t know how to use them or understand what to do with them they’ll say well this stuff doesn’t work
because they learn from someone who doesn’t know what they’re doing okay it’s it’s blatantly obvious what it is
but okay same thing here buy side is being offered until that
opening price is violated right there then the change of state of delivery occurs now the market’s going to be doing what
offering sell side liquidity what’s that mean it’s going to start going lower and attacking the sell stops all the sell
sell equity it’s offering it to the marketplace that’s what’s happening that’s what the algorithm is doing
that’s what the algorithm does okay you buying and selling me buying and selling everybody over there on reddit is not
going to change anything at all it’s not going to do anything
and the argument that defeats all that buying and selling pressure is how do you argue against the bull squeeze and
the bear squeeze there’s a short squeeze going on the market’s rallying up when it’s been bearish
that’s just their cop-out that’s their way of saying well you know everybody shorten and now they’re
covering so there it is and i learned the same thing folks i believed all that garbage two thousand plus books i know
what those books told me is what you are learning too because the same people teaching today
retail garbage elliott wave this and that it’s all stupid stuff man it has nothing
to do with why these markets are doing what they’re doing zero has nothing to do with it
don’t worry i got proof today but the market goes down to that 50 level because it’s going down to what
i teach you what did i say in the first video it’s going down from a premium
market relative to this low and this high 50 is here that’s equilibrium so it’s
going to go down to a discount and that’s that gap right in here it doesn’t look like a gap so much here but if you
go back up one more time that’s that single opening right there on a two-minute chart and then on a
one-minute chart it’s two candles that make that up but you’re gonna have to do is go through a progression of going from the three minute two minute and one
minute chart and you’ll get your market structure and your areas of where it wants to look for an imbalance or overload high and it just
makes it easy but just a real nice delivery there
and here’s the lipstick on it on the one minute chart swing high is broken
market structure is now bullish rallies taking buy stops taking buy stops taking
buy stops this right here these highs right here is just staying below that low it’s
building up more interest that this is what resistance
that is engineering liquidity that way when this runs above it
those individuals that know what you’re learning today they know that that’s a pool of liquidity for buyers coming in
at a high price why is that useful because smart money that bought down here or here or here or here or here
that’s where they sell to high seeking buyers
it’s not hard logic folks it’s not complicated okay it just feels complicated because you see other people trying to teach
something and you hear or read in the comments you’re teaching it better than ict does no you don’t
[Laughter] no you’re not you’re not doing you’re actually teaching it incorrectly and without the real context of what it is
that you’re missing but i get it you think every down closed candle is a bullish order block and up
claim that one is a very short block and that’s not the case look in here
okay for the guys that say i did not take trades or i didn’t trade this way see that gap right there see that see
that down closed candle right there that’s your order block boom by it right there what about this
right here dropping down all these candles here are more
significant if you look at it on the two minute chart
see that it becomes one order block right in here
buy it sell short buy it again we got up into the stops
sell short reverse and ride the larger swing down don’t listen these yahoos out there to
say that i’m not proving something to you i’m proving it that’s what i said i was going to come out here this year and do that’s this whole point of being here
this year it’s my 30th anniversary november 5th i’ve been a trader
in the markets living and breathing this stuff for 30 years
you’re not really in any position to demand
anything from me i enjoy doing this but i don’t need to provide any kind of proof to you either but i’m loving it
this year i’m slowly putting it out there and enjoying all the naysayers and the things they’re
saying and it’s just fun because they have no idea what i’m about to bring this entire
year none of you are going to doubt anything so the one-minute chart
just a real nice delivery here as well filling in that very value you got
change in the state of delivery now it’s offering sell side what’s that mean it’s going to match up
sell stops it’s going to keep going below old lows into an imbalance until we get down to a
discount is that hard is it hard to see
what i’m showing you here pretty clean isn’t it clean chart now i
don’t have all these things on my chart when i’m watching price because i already know what i’m looking for
and i don’t want to have any distractions and i don’t want to have a level or some kind of annotation that’s going to keep me thinking only
with that perspective okay or that idea it allows me to be fluid
with what the market’s actually doing versus going in and saying okay this is
what i think is going to happen and this is the only thing that can happen you understand what i just did there
i allow myself to be flexible whereas if you have all these things you’re putting on your chart
you’re only only seeing your will be done
so i keep my charts clean and then i add the annotations so that
way my students can see what the internal dialogue in my mind was while watching price do what it does
naked there’s nothing on the charts at all when i’m trading zero nothing okay
so with that i want you to think about how this is useful okay
number one you’re looking at london highs and lows the session for
london open okay for instance like two o’clock in the morning at five o’clock in the morning new york time every time i tell you just
always set it with new york local time two o’clock to five o’clock in the morning that’s your london session
what’s the highs and lows of that session okay that’s important because the market’s going to probably sweep above those
highs or sweep below those lows and create situations like this okay
and the new york session is seven o’clock in the morning to 10 o’clock in the morning new york local time okay
what’s the session high and low for that and do the same thing for asia okay 7
p.m to 9 p.m and that’s it those are the three times
of the day that i’m looking for specific key highs and kilos and
any intraday high and low forming right before the equities open at 9 30.
pretty easy right the hours of operation again are generally between 8 30 in the morning until 11 but it can be extended
to new york lunch noon i do not tend to take trades after
noon local time in new york that hour is usually very problematic and it just
it’s better not to even look for any kind of setups wait until one o’clock preferably really 1 30
to 4 o’clock then you get that afternoon trend typically you’ll see between two o’clock
and three o’clock there’s a setup that usually forms in the afternoon trend or set up in that period of the time of the
day that will also offer opportunities but that’s outside the scope of what i’m
going to be teaching in this mentorship but there’s lots of things you can look on youtube about the afternoon session
and you can just combine some of the things that i’m going to teach you here and just it’s not hard to make a
you know an addition to what you’re learning here so if you want to trade the afternoon session you can
obviously pick up some insights from other youtubers that do trade futures but
for developing students this is enough i promise you this is enough okay
all right so we talked about internal range liquidity and internal range liquidity is looking
for short-term lows or short-term highs inside a price leg that we’re retracing
back into okay that’s all it means internal range liquidity is a short term higher low with stops above or below it
or an imbalance in that same range of price action and i taught you market structure shifts
showed you exactly all that’s necessary that is all that you require
and the skill set of identifying pools of liquidity that is going to be something you learn
rather quickly just by going through old data and looking at the times of the day i gave you in this lecture all right your homework is you’re going to go
through your e-mini futures intraday charts and you’ll be looking for stop hunts that lead to market structure shifts
intraday you’re going to log your examples with your own annotations for your study journal
so what i showed with the break in the market going higher and lower above
old highs or lower below an old low that’s running for stops that’s a stop
hunt then you’re looking for that signature for the market structure shift on the
three two and or one minute charts okay if you look for that between 8 30 in the
morning to noon new york local time in the e-mini markets or if you’re
watching the micro markets the same logic exists okay but you’re
going to start going back from today and go back as far as the data will allow you the more you do it and you
annotate your charts the more experience you’re going to have and it’s pseudo experience yes but you’re teaching your
brain i use this analogy a lot with my paid mentorship students it’s like hunters okay
to know where you’re gonna find a deer if that’s what you’re going to go out and hunt you need to know how to track
one okay or sit up in this tree stand and wait for it to walk by but usually they go out and they walk around in the
woods and look for tracks would you know what a deer track looks like before i was shown one i didn’t
know what it was okay but because i’m showing you what it looks like that’s all this lesson was
predominantly focusing on is the actual view of what it looks like the details
what you don’t need is anything above and beyond what i’ve shown you the only thing you need is what i’ve
shown you here it’s simple it’s straight to the point and i’m only talking to that way you
understand that this is all that is required notice there is no commitment of traders
notice there’s no breakers notice that i’ve stripped it down to the chrome now
this is the only way you can trade but i’m showing you something that i think personally is in my opinion this is so universally simplistic
all of you should be able to do this one okay in my opinion i think this is it and that’s why i
more or less built it because i think my daughter which has zero interest in trading
i think that this is going to be easy for her to see it and understand what to look for it doesn’t have a lot of moving
parts notice that it’s very specific times of the day specific highs and lows you’re going to look for
it’s simple but you won’t appreciate how simple it is until you go back into your charts
and you annotate your 15-minute time frame for your buy-side liquidity pool and your sell-side liquidity pools
and then going down into the three-minute two-minute moment chart so for every individual day that you’re
logging and you’re back testing back testing is just dressing your chart up like i’m showing you here
and then studying it not just do it say okay i’m done really going to see how price moved and how it delivered
how many pips did it move how long did it move going higher or lower
how much drawdown did it put on your position if you would have taken one all of those things you want to annotate
that in your chart so that way when you go back through your study journal you’ll have many examples that look at
and because you’re looking at it and you’re seeing it over and over again repetitively
when you have a period of time where nothing feels like it’s working and you feel confused you want to go back through your study journal and look at
these examples because it will encourage you through periods of time where you just feel like it isn’t clicking okay
it’s why it’s important to have a study journal because you’re going to see this stuff is happening every single day
every single day and don’t take the infancy that you have right now
and the lack of experience and amplify that to there’s no way i can
learn how to do this because that’s a lie that’s a facade don’t buy into that view okay it’s something that you’re
going to have to grow into and it’s going to be quick for some and it’s going to be slower for others and there’s no way i can make it easier than
this okay because that workload that you have to go through of back testing and logging and acquiring examples the more
time you do that the more examples you acquire in back testing i swear this is the secret okay
because that is the thing that’s the work that’s required
a lot of people say they do it but they don’t okay they go back a couple days and say oh this is i don’t think i’m
getting anything from this but that’s the reason why they fail because that’s the work that’s required
you know having 10 pages in a notebook saying i took notes and you didn’t take notes you scribbled you wasted your time
you knew going in you weren’t going to be that headstrong about doing it and that’s what is required to learn this otherwise
if you don’t have that mindset this isn’t going to be for you because it’s going to require work it’s going to take effort and organization and personal
responsibility if you don’t have those characteristics you need to develop them if you don’t develop them and patients
you must go out there and find somebody that’s good at giving you trade signals and just submit to that
and you good luck with it but this isn’t it i got another portion of the video i want to show you now and
i’m going to show you this logic actually working today in the nasdaq e-mini contract
all right so we’re looking at trading views chart in the backdrop and i have
the td ameritrade open over top of it scrunched down so that way i can
operate with the trading view and i’m going to highlight in trading view a fair value got after a market
structure shift it’s bullish and i’m going to show you an imbalance that is in a premium
okay see that just the opposite of what i’ve been showing you
change the color on this and the idea is i want to see it drop
down into that green area but if you look real close there’s actually a smaller little fair value got just below
that green box okay this is not supply and demand okay the idea is i want to see it
drop down to that green box and i don’t know if it’s going to dip into the lower fare value cap so
whenever there’s two fair value gaps like this this is for your notes in case you missed this the idea is
i’m going to let it trade down to that lower one i’ll sacrifice that better entry and if it trades down there
and trades into it and then comes right back up into that green box the first higher fair value gap i’ll enter when it’s in there
and expect that the lower one won’t be retraded to okay
i’m going to be trading with a stop that will have essentially three and a quarter percent
risk i’m not suggesting that’s a size of risk for you i’m just telling you that’s what i have in mind when i’m taking this
trade and this is again just my personal belief in this i’m not suggesting that
you should believe me or you subscribe to this view because i’m showing you a
live account this does not mean that every trade you take forward from this day on is going to be like this it
doesn’t mean it guarantees profit it doesn’t but my belief in my faith is that i’ve seen this work so many times
over the last 30 years that i know that this is something that’s going to work enough for me
and that’s all that matters it’s a personal endeavor when you’re speculating if you don’t have any faith in it then
obviously you would never put live money in it
all right so the market’s starting to drop down a little bit in here and let’s say for instance that it runs
up into that upper rectangle first before going down to the green one then i would nix the
trade and that means i wouldn’t take a trade and i’d move to the sidelines and probably do nothing the rest of the morning or watch and see if there’s
something else that sets up all right so now i’m inside that rectangle but notice again
i want to see if it goes down to that lower fair value gap that’s not highlighted i’ll mention it when we get into it
that right there i’m willing to sacrifice that because that’s actually the better buy
but if we go back up into the higher fair value gap and create like a tail
on this particular candle i’ll see that as just running for a lower imbalance and then
it should accumulate in here
and i have my trigger on the buy button okay i’m just going to go in with a buy at market
not trying to do anything advanced here
okay and if you look at the bottom of the td ameritrade live account module you’ll see nasdaq symbol and
you’ll actually see my profit loss going as the trade is entered
and i took a trade in the e-mini s p and it was basically a scratch i ended up making 75
so i put a trade on and came back on me stopped me and that was the end of that
all right there i am putting the order in
and there’s the confirmation that the orders were received so now i’m long you can see at the
bottom of the pop out it shows that i’m down
initially what looks like 20 i know i’m up 20
right now so now down 75. so this is the part of trading where it
feels scary if you’ve never traded with live funds and you just feel like you got to watch
that number of how much money you’re making and losing that’s the worst thing to do okay what i’m watching is
the chart does the chart continuously keep giving me feedback
visually that it’s accumulating and not going lower now it can go one more time back into
that lower fair value gap that’s permissible to me i’m willing to endure that
i just don’t want to see it overlap that entire thing and go lower because then i’d have to close the trade and
preferably save my stop notice the bodies of the candles are
staying relatively inside that fair value got the shaded green now i again i’m only adding this
to the chart because i knew i was going to record it and share it with you today but i do not have this in my charts
okay the only annotations i have in my charts is when i’m teaching my students and since you’re here
at least for right now i’m calling you my student
even the haters
all right so with the aid of hindsight because i lived this moment
this morning it does go down one more time and stab into
those wicks that are forming
now when you put a trade on you kind of like give the complete control of everything
to the marketplace and you want to just allow the market to do what it’s going to do and not try to
overthink every fluctuation every little minor movement in the price
action is not something that is going to hopefully
sway you so i’ve already had it in my mind that it could go back down and make a slightly lower low than those two
little wicks that it’s formed inside the lower fair value gap
so since i had that expectation that it could potentially do that i’m
desensitizing myself to that in the event that it forms an ideal scenario would be it doesn’t do
it at all obviously but i’m allowing for that price action especially with the volatility that
we’ve been seeing the last few days
and what i’m thinking right now is they’re taking it down one more time to accumulate more longs
notice i’m saying that not it’s selling pressure driving price down
i think this uh this is where i took the most heat on the trade if i’m not mistaken i think
it’s like 455 dollars of trade drawdown while being still in the
trade which is below the threshold i’ve already said
my maximum risk on a trade if i’m trading competitively is four and a half percent per trade
generally i like to take a trade that i feel comfortable with around three three and a half percent that’s a good
trade for me
okay showing signs initially that it’s wanting to go higher and what i’m trying to do is keep my
focus on that lower level or the the bottom of that pink rectangle that’s the low hanging fruit
that’s the easy target i’m telling you to try to practice and learn to reach for the ideal scenario would be to go
all the way to the top of that pink but while you’re learning don’t do that
okay it’s easier just to let it trade the low end and just take it off when it gives it to
you i have my trigger on the flatten button so it cancels every order
takes me completely out of the marketplace
as soon as it touches the low end of that rectangle i’ll collapse the trade
right now i’m up seven nine almost nine hundred dollars eight ninety five nine thirty five
nine twenty five and again you can watch that fluctuation
in the lower right hand corner of the pop out i’m at 1100 plus
11.49 okay traded there touched it now i’m collapsing the trade there just like
that and that’s it now my account’s booked and mark to market
with eleven hundred ninety dollars and gain in the balance now reflects it with
twenty seven thousand nine hundred fifteen dollars and eleven cents so there’s trading view
showing the chart i’m watching because i like trading these charts i don’t like td ameritrades charts it’s i don’t like
them so i’m just using the pop out which is why are you showing us things scrunched up you’re just i’m not hiding
anything you can see it it’s right there so let’s go over and take a look at the chart now
you can see nothing has changed i just magnified that pop out so it’s entirely taking up my entire screen
we’re gonna go to the nasdaq e-mini contract simple
and i am so clumsy with this platform still
and i’m sure i’ll get real good at by the middle of the year and not nudge
all right so we’re gonna look at this day and there’s the chart on one minute and
i’m gonna add an overlay okay but i’m going to put in so you can see where the trades are
in that chart there’s the executions and there is these areas i showed you on
the trading view chart so for the inquiring minds that wanted to see a live chart and live account and
all that business and the logic of what i’m teaching in the youtube channel i humbly submit this
and so i’ll talk to you on thursday be safe
Transcript
Intro
all right folks welcome back
so this lesson is going to be a little
bit shorter more direct to the point and
we’ll be looking at some examples
since i showed you what we’re looking
for on tuesday night
so wednesday’s trading and thursday’s
trading we’ll take a look at that
EMini SP March
all right first up is the e-mini s p
march delivery contract for 2022
wednesday january 26th
once you take a look at this low over
here
okay and don’t just use my charts you
want to look at your charts
and go through it from your platform
your broker whatever
feed that you’re using
this is trading view it’s a free
charting
package when it’s end of data but if you
want to have real time
i think i’m paying four dollars a month
for the data it’s not really expensive
but
you want to have the
low over here
on wednesday the 26th
and you’ll see why i picked that low
there because
it’s the low okay and then this is the
high
so we have this price run from this low
to this high that’s our range
so you want to drop your fib on that
now get your equilibrium price point so
as the highs
were ran through
we had that run up the market gets
pushed into a premium it’s really
expensive and then we want to wait to
see does it break down below
the old high
it does
but does it create a fair value gap in
here no
then it rallies one more time
then breaks down again
inside here there’s a break in market
structure
we see it here
then it runs back up into the fair value
gap here
and then sells off
reaching into
this old low
which would be
below
the equilibrium price point of this
entire range or 50 level on the fib
Technical Analysis
okay put some lipstick on this
again here’s the low
and the high
equilibrium which is a 50 level on the
fibonacci
so we’re looking for a
low
or an imbalance
below
this level
okay so we have a swing low here
we have an imbalance here that could be
a target
notice how we hit it there and came off
of it
more pronounced
low here
and draws down into that so inside this
shaded blue area we’re going to take a
closer look at the details
okay we’re zoomed in a little bit again
still on a two minute chart
previous high short term high
and 8 30 in the morning that starts the
hunt basically that’s why 8 30 in the
morning is to me
so we’re looking for an old high to be
violated it does sell here
then it breaks there’s a break in market
structure
swing low
this candle over here that sets the
stage now you have a opportunity
does price draw back up into the fair
value gap after this candle breaks below
here and giving you a bearish market
structure shift yes it trades up in the
nether bay you got you can go short
there
and again you could target this old low
here or that low that was
annotated before we zoomed in and look
at the beautiful delivery there
so
hypothetical short from here
and hypothetical cover here
you would log that in your study journal
don’t use my examples here alone go into
your own charts and annotate them as
well
so shorting around we’ll say
4419
and covering at
we’ll say 43.82 just to be
you know
not perfect
that’s the opportunity of the range but
you don’t have to have all of that and
still very very nice delivery based on
the logic i taught you on tuesday and
the first lesson on the previous week’s
friday again there’s that fair bag you
get
and that’s your
candle that would be considered as a
ideal entry
and the discount hold low as a target
right there
so your charts would look just like this
and any open space like over here you
would just type in whatever important
factors that you found insightful about
this example how long did it take okay
how long did it take from
the market structure shift
occurring
how much time did it take to get up into
the fair value gap that’s real important
how long did it take before it went from
your entry
down to your target in time
how much heat or
drawdown would you have
weathered getting short
now if you used
this candles high as your entry point
you technically could have got filled
here
but in here i want to
teach you to look at the total range
available and in hindsight okay because
it gives you a framework to look for how
these examples while they’re not exactly
the same they don’t repeat exactly
photocopy of every single previous
instance of it
there’s a lot of similarities that
you’ll find that are reoccurring
and that’s the important factor to train
your eye to see it
remember the analogy i gave you on
tuesday night
about the deer track and being a hunter
you have to know what a deer track looks
like you have to know what a deer track
is to stalk it effectively
well this is your pattern in setup so
you need to go in looking for it so it
reinforces the idea that you know what
it looks like
all right we’re looking at the e-mini
nasdaq futures for thursday january 27
2022.
this is a five minute chart this is the
time frame you start with and you work
down okay
so in the five minute right away
we can see the low
to the high
and we’re looking for
a high
and go back in time in your chart and
you’ll find what this is here
but you have these relative equal highs
as well so that could have been a
initial objective looking for these
relative equal highs to be taken out and
does it break down and give you a fair
value gap no it doesn’t so it wouldn’t
even meet the criteria there i know some
of you might be looking at well how do
you know it doesn’t get you on a trade
here
listen to the rules i gave you they’re
very specific and that’s what i’m
walking you through here that way you
can see it’s kind of allowing the market
or really forcing the market
to show you its hand
once it does that then you can go into
the next accordingly but you have to
wait for the setup you can’t force it
you can’t think it’s there it’s there or
it’s not so we have old high here by
celebrity resting above that and we have
a run above it once it goes above you
doesn’t go above it and break down and
then go down below that short term load
there now it goes higher
so we just keep waiting for a
break
lower to get a shift in the market
structure on an intraday basis so we
have a swing low here
it trades down through it on this candle
here so you know right away
at that moment on this candle as soon as
this candle trades through it you now
have an opportunity
then you go back into the high to that
candle
slow and do you see a fair value gap
it’s right there
okay this market rallies back up
trades into it here
you could be a short seller there
and the market breaks down one more time
retrades back into it and reaches below
the equilibrium price point now it has a
couple targets here you could be here
here or in the in balance
and it hits all of them and goes a
little bit further lower
Summary
all right so that was quick and
hopefully painless
and again we’re looking at internal
range liquidity and market structure
shifts intraday
my advice is for you to go back through
more data use the weekend that’s coming
and
acquire more of those
examples so that we can include them in
your study journal
next week i’ll work on targeting
refinement and entries until i’ll talk
to you then enjoy weekend be safe
Transcript
all right folks welcome back this is the 2022 ict mentorship on youtube
and this lesson is going to be intraday order flow and understanding the daily range
all right folks we’re looking at tradingview.com and you can use this platform for free
there are some benefits to having a membership there it’s not terribly expensive but nonetheless
it provides you a means of looking at charts that i show in my mentorship here and in my private
mentorship group so it’s the same charts that i’m producing for that community that i’m producing for
you as well everything in this lecture is going to be predominantly around teaching you the
elements of the e-mini setting up your daily range and your
intraday layouts and i’ll talk a little bit about daily profiles so that will help you and
i’m and contrast showing you what it is that you’re trying to learn from me here
versus what is available out there in the internet okay so that way you can decide whether or not this is going to be a worthwhile
pursuit for you these things that i’m teaching today are
directly linked to index futures okay like s p
nasdaq and the dow okay you can use the russell 2000 those are the markets that i’m
targeting with the lessons the ideas of trading the asian range and things like
that they are not applicable to these markets i don’t teach that to my students i want you to just focus on the
things that i’m going to show you in this mentorship all right first things first i’m going to get the boring stuff right out of the way
whenever you’re looking at futures especially the index features these contracts
trade with expiration dates and the months that they trade are going to be
shown here es is the symbol for e-mini s p h in this example stands for march
so the delivery month codes for the commodity markets h is always representing the month of
march m is june u is september
z is december these are the only four months that the index futures trade
one e-mini s p e-mini nasdaq and e-mini dow okay
the year obviously is what it is now if you’re going to be using like for instance when i take live trades in the
td ameritrade they don’t take their year symbol like this it’s 2-2 but in trading view if you’re
pulling up the symbol like i have here esh2022 that represent the e-mini s p 500
contract for delivery month march year 2022 okay
since they expire it’s important for you to know that the third friday of the month
of delivery which is obviously in this example here march the third friday of that month is
expiration you do not want to be trading after expiration and the question is
going to be is when do i start trading the next month out okay this is always going to be the
front month or the current month or nearby contract the month after the front month or current contract month is
always going to be referred to by me as the next month out if you ever have a doubt you can go to
barchart.com and you can go to the select commodity tab here this is all free
you can scrub down into this list here go to s p 500 emini click on that
it’ll open up what i just showed you there and the the first one that’s the cash you don’t want to look at that the next
contract available is march see that even gives you a little cheat
right now this is considered the front month or nearby contract
the open interest is what i’m watching okay so one week before expiration which is
the third friday of the delivery contract month so third friday of march third friday of june third friday of
september third friday of december roll over to a new year starts the sequence all over again march june
september december real easy pattern real easy means of keeping track of where you’re supposed to be at but
usually around the first or second day of the week prior to expiration
i start monitoring open interest and i want to be in the month that has the larger open interest number notice that
the june contract only has 57 310 contracts of open interest
right now the front month or nearby contract of march 2022
has opened interest of 2.2 million so this is the larger liquidity base contract month so i’m going to be
trading this month if it becomes a matter of this month here
has larger open interest than this one here then i’m going to be trading the next
month out because i want the liquidity that’s available in the larger pool liquidity offered by
the most traded contract month okay so hopefully that answered that question got a lot of questions regarding that
all right so now what we’re looking for is an opportunity and i’m gonna
teach bias and specific entry techniques next week
this week i’m teaching you the intraday framework and i want you to start thinking about market profiles
and you’re going to have homework assignments obviously for that at the end of this video but
we’re going to assume that you were bullish in here
okay i’m going to provide proof in this video that i was bullish and i did execute
with that bias in mind but but just kind of put that to the sideline i know some of you are very anxious and you’re leaving comments
saying can you teach me how to get in you know what you know what am i looking for i
understand your excitement but take the lessons at the pace that i’m giving you because i’m giving you
homework assignments and studying so that way it helps build and ingrain
the understanding i’m giving you because your study time is actually going to be where the majority of your learning is going to come from i’m just giving you
points of reference so that way you can go in and start looking at things and start seeing a
recurring repeating phenomenon but i want to take a
look at the 15 minute time frame
all right and when you’re looking at this
15 minute time frame this is the bellwether time frame this is where i’m looking for key highs and lows
i’m looking for imbalances like fair value gaps and things of that nature yes i’ll look for order blocks but i’m
going to try to stay away from order blocks in this lesson in this mentorship really because i have models that don’t even rely on
order blocks obviously i’m teaching fair value gap here and that is the main focus
because it repeats it’s easy pattern it’s there a lot but i want you to think about how you
frame your day so you when you’re in trading view or you can do this in your own platform if you’re not using tradingview but
i’m recommending you at least while you’re going through mentorship here on youtube to go through the process with
tradingview all right and then this is what you would classically see
annotated in my chart for a forex setup i’m taking you to 8 30.
okay you’re gonna put a vertical line there at 8 30 click this clone i know this is very boring for
some of you because you really want to just get in there and get the nuts and bolts but i have
new people watching the same video so i have to make this as complete as possible
and try to cover all the bases and then hopefully i don’t get as many emails
because i can’t keep up with them and so if you email me and i’m not responding i apologize but i just i can’t keep up
with it all right so we’re looking at
there we go that’s good all right so the equal distance in time in the morning then an hour lunch
new york lunch and then an equal amount of time after that okay so i’m going to zoom in here
and in your mind i want you to think about that lunch hour and this is always
new york local time okay set your trading view chart to this if you do that no matter where you are
in the world you’ll be able to calibrate your local time with this okay everything i’m showing you
is directly linked to new york local time if you do any other time frame
you’re going to mess up you won’t have the same calibrations as all my students and what i’m looking at
in price because eventually i’m going to be showing you charts on my community tab that i want you to be watching
before it happens but before i even start doing that i’m not going to create a train wreck by
having everybody looking at charts in their own local time and not new york time and completely miss the the point and plot
so once we have this i want you to think of this hour here
noon to one o’clock in the afternoon new york time
that is a no trade time period i don’t care who tells you that they can do this and do that
if you’re learning from me just don’t trade during that time okay not even a demo because just trust me
don’t do it okay as we go through mentorship you’ll understand more reasons why i just can’t
give everything in one video obviously i want to and i want to do four hour long teachings but i’m trying to make them
palatable because i know majority of you don’t have the attention span because
you’re new and you’re just now discovering so i’m trying to bear that in mind when i’m making these presentations
so you have your daily range on an intraday basis all set up and laid out
so these are your boundaries your morning trade is between 8 30 in the morning why because there’s news
events that come out 8 30 all the way to noon preferably around 11 o’clock i generally don’t like to take
trades after 11 o’clock in the morning now it doesn’t mean i haven’t or that i
won’t i just generally try not to i want to try to be positioned before 11 o’clock and hopefully be riding something into the
new york lunch at noon and then you know squaring positions or taking some off if i’m gonna hold
through the lunch and anticipate something going through to the close and we’ll talk about that when we get into profiles
not volume profile okay uh the idea of
the afternoon session i wasn’t gonna teach that but because i see a lot of nonsense on
youtube i’m gonna i’m just gonna teach it to you okay so it’s gonna be a complete daily
treatise on the entire daily range of indices so that
way if your interest is in this asset class
you’ll have a far better chance of being successful in my opinion using the information i’m going to give
you okay and i’m proving it with actual executions as you’ll see in later in the video all
right so we’re looking at prior to 8 30 what are you looking for okay i got a lot of questions in the
comments section i’m reading all the comments folks i love it because it’s real short little snippets i know a lot
of my students they like to send me these really long-winded appreciative emails and then they give me one chart
that doesn’t really explain much to me and i can’t really answer it so the comment section that
i’m opening up on every one of these videos if you haven’t noticed i’m allowing one comment that
to kind of like honor those individuals that are showing appreciation and they’re not gratuitously you know looking to praise me i don’t like that
okay i i like the appreciation for my time and energy and
sacrifice giving it to you for free but i don’t want to be worshipped okay i don’t want all that
kind of stuff don’t call me the go don’t call me the greatest of all time i don’t like that kind of stuff
but if you have something that you want me to touch on and improve a
delivery or explanation of a specific thing i mentioned in a video i may
already have something in a future lesson planned but if it’s something that i don’t have in
my outline that’s going to be in future videos i’ll utilize the feedback i get okay so that way
i understand some of you want everything all at one time and there’s no way i can do all that in one time but i am taking
the feedback i’m getting from you all and i’m using that okay but one of the questions i got was
what highs and lows are we looking for that you know a stop run would be
framed on or what would be the catalyst for a stop hunt
well prior to 830 if you look at that okay we’ll just grab a horizontal ray
and we see this high here and i’m utilizing this with the benefit of hindsight because this is how you’re
going to go back and back test everything i want you to take a look at the
high here
and the low right here
so prior to 8 30 in other words to the left of that on a 15 minute time frame what’s the most significant
or obvious swing high in swing low swing high is this it’s a candle with a lower high to the left of it and a lower high
to the right of it three candle pattern okay it does not matter if the candles are up
or down closes you’re just looking for a swing high because above that’s going to be buy side liquidity or buy stopped
and a swing low prior to 8 30 that’s a candle that has a higher low to
the left and a higher load to the right of its three candles again it does not matter what the
close of the candles are it has absolutely no bearing on what i’m showing you here because the swing
points are where liquidity is going to be placed okay so once you have these levels on
your chart on a 15 minute time frame then you can drop down into your
first lower time frame for entry that’s your five minute chart so let’s
do that now all these things will be transposed right to the five-minute chart you won’t lose anything in case you’re
wondering a lot of new people are afraid if they do something with the time frame they’ll lose their annotations
all right so now we have this old high back here look at look at this price right there okay
that’s going to be the high price on that particular candle right there it’s 45 14 and a half
this candle trades 2 45 14 and a half exactly the same high
when we have that but look closer we have relative equal high but we have it in
multiple short-term highs that keep going higher if there’s three highs that go up like that that’s a
classic three drives pattern there’s a book i really enjoyed when i was in the 90s uh linda rasch and larry connors
street smarts book really nice little book i don’t like everything in the book but i liked a few
of the things that they talked about and it helped me understand
stop hunts because i couldn’t understand it as a developing student
that why would the price want to go for those stops it didn’t
make any sense because the books that i had bought never really explained all that in in detail they just said trust
this pattern of continuation or reversal pattern and the idea of stop hunts or raids on
liquidity never really came up so it was an alien topic to me so when i
started delving into the charts and started looking at it it helped me and the pattern that she
and larry mentioned in there was the three little endings pattern it sounds quirky sounds a little silly but it’s
basically the three drives pattern okay that means it’s a swing high a higher swing high and a
higher swing high so it’s three times the market cut pressing up i like to see this pattern forming
when there’s an old high back here okay on any time frame it’s universal okay
but if you ever start seeing these three drives up into an old high you don’t
have to see that third high take out the old high because what it’s doing is it’s already pressing into running out
liquidity every time it creates a swing high and it starts to go down bears are trying to sell that
and they’re putting buy stops rating above the previous high and they keep getting taken
so it’s already building in liquidity and informed investors or quote unquote smart money will be already establishing
short positions then the market breaks in one of the previous
videos i’ve talked about the pattern or the setup and i suggested
not using a particular swing load that looks like it’s been violated and why didn’t that
trade work out wouldn’t that be a losing trade i want you to think about
this idea that i teach which is displacement okay
if you have a children’s swimming pool okay if you have a children’s swimming
pool in your backyard and you fill it up and then you have an elephant
just fall down inside of it what’s going to happen the water is going to be displaced okay it’s going to be an
obvious displacement of that water rather simplistic analogy but
that’s what you’re looking for in price when price goes above an old high
and it trades down below it you want to see an obvious displacement you don’t want to see it just do like uh well you
know a little lethargic run here that’s not enough this
is like that elephant falling into that children’s swimming pool it’s no doubt about it it really had a
displacement when that occurs then you go in you start looking for the fair value got
the low the high and if it trades back up into that then you can look for a short
okay there’s a process that you go through learning
it and it’s good that three of you were very critical about it but but trust me
there’s rules for a reason and i’m not trying to hide failure because these patterns sometimes
will fail you okay you’ll read them wrong or they just won’t work okay sometimes the market will have some kind
of a news event that comes out or it just simply just rolls over top of it and goes higher or goes lower that’s a
losing trade that’s why you have to have a stop loss that’s why you have to have good sound money management because if you don’t have those things
murphy’s law is going to creep in and whatever can go wrong will and if you leave it open to the market’s
determination how bad the pain is going to be trust me you don’t want that okay you
want to limit that so now we have this previous high previous low now if we did
not this is really important that you understand this part here if we don’t start seeing these higher highs forming and it’s just one steady run up then you
anticipate a high like this to be taken out and it doesn’t need to be taken out by much just trade above it and then you want to
look for this energetic movement lower that’s displacement where it’s really animated so in other words it would look
like when you look at your chart that’s a little bit more pronounced
because it went above this previous high here you’re looking at this one but as it’s starting to move towards that old high
remember 830 prior to that you’re looking for what’s this it does swing high yes
so it’s shaking above it here does it have an energetic break below that no it’s just a
very weak anemic move lower then you have another run higher here
and then you had this wick or tail come down and it quickly snaps back does that create a fair value gap in
that no it’s not there yet then it goes higher here doesn’t go above it matches that high but then now
this high watch does it go below that yes a little bit here but it’s a little
anemic still but then look what we have here it trades up and then smashes down
then the next candle here closes what do we have there’s your fair value got
that’s your short and you could reach for the liquidity resting below that low that you would be
identifying prior to 8 30. so sell side liquidity matching up with
your short you sell you want to buy it back to cover that short well here’s waiting sellers right down
here in the form of sell stops bam hits it okay
putting aside that you may not have seen this as a long entry
okay maybe you didn’t see this as a potential continuation of bullishness but look at these highs here
what’s resting above that now buy stops buy side liquidity and then what do we have here right
before lunch hour it goes slightly above it and then trades down and then we’re in that time
of the day you don’t trade it new york lunch hour noon to one don’t trade it
okay do not trade it you can do a lot of weird things in that hour or simply do nothing and go sideways but either way
you don’t want to be a participant in that because it’s just it’s not usually a clean time of day for
price action so now here we have the high of the day and all the liquidity resting above here
that would not have been tagged by this in other words stops are resting a little bit above that
because there’s a lot of people trying to sell short they want they want to see this thing go lower but we created a very important low last week and the
market has already tanked a lot so it’s pulling back up in the run that it created going lower
on a daily chart so all these buy side liquidity pools here
are going to be a reason for the market to want to reach up to that because you don’t have to be
a participant down here as a buyer you just need to know on the other side of lunch
at one o’clock start watching and see is there an indication that this thing wants to go higher
as you can see
all the buy side liquidity here was ran aggressively here
but then the market trades right into the close aggressively bullish
small little retracement here small little retracement here and then immediate run right into the close
now obviously the market trades a little bit beyond that but this time of day
expect whatever algorithms that you would expect to be driving price and price runs
to pretty much cap the majority of the volume that’s going to be in that day
so what i want you to think about is how the day’s designed to have a morning
move a lunch hour where you don’t want to be trading and then the afternoon move
go back through your charts and you can go back as far as you want the more you do this the better you’ll get but i want you to think about
creating your charts like this and then describing what the morning trend was
was it a bullish move was it a bearish move was it consolidation
if it was consolidation prior to that part of the day in other words the previous day or the previous days
was it bullish or bearish then because if it was bullish this is probably setting another
continuation higher especially if you start seeing these relative equal highs forming where it paints the idea that
this is retail resistance so traders are going to think that this is going to go lower and it starts to
build up a lot more interest in the form of buy side liquidity or buying interest at a high price even though that those
traders may be framing the context of their trades as a short entry trying to make money going lower
their protective stop if they choose to use one it’s going to be in the form of a buy
stop and this is where it’s going to be at so the market’s going to want to gravitate towards that especially if you
start seeing the swing lows not the one in lunchtime ignore that one you start seeing the swing lows that are forming every candle
has a higher low to the left and higher low to the right if they start building up and every time they create
a new one it’s going higher that’s a underpinning of the marketplace
that’s showing accumulation it wants to go up because it wants to clean out all this
here plus we’ve been going up for a few days on the daily chart
plus the sentiment is everybody thinks it’s been going down so they all want to sell short because they want to see a
stock market crash but what they are failing to realize is we’ve already went down below an old low on the daily chart
so now we’re running back the other direction and anyone that’s trying to sell short unless it’s a real quick intraday scalp
they’re having their clocks cleaned so in the afternoon there’s a trend
and one of the built-in characteristics of the afternoon is
there’s mechanisms that are built in that help this market really accelerate
into the close and if you study the price action in your lower time frame charts you’ll see that
there’s a repeating phenomenon that’s typically around 20 minutes to four and 10 minutes before
and four o’clock and it’s all based on market on close orders that’s really
what it is okay and the algorithms will start spitting out really really aggressive
pricing and forcing traders to either cover or
you know get out of trades and usually if it’s going up it really just ramps up and accelerates in that direction
so while i really enjoy trading the morning session because there’s a lot of volatility and
excitement if you’re looking for if you know what your daily bias is and
we’ll talk about that next week if you know your daily biases and if you know what you’re looking for in terms of
range expansion on the daily chart know what i mean by that the daily candle do you expect it to
trade higher or lower you’re not trying to predict you know every single daily candles close but
you’re trying to determine do you think that the daily candle you’re looking at forming today or what will be forming
tomorrow is it more likely to be expanding higher or lower if it’s expanding higher in your analysis that
means you want to try to trade with the expectation to find a trade in the
afternoon based on the logic that was used in the morning so in other words think about what i taught in forex
the daily range okay creating a initial high of the day and the low of the day here
now this is not the time of london but this would be like what i teach as a london low
in a by day for forex this would be the low today then we consolidate and then we get the
new york continuation and it runs in the same direction that the london session formed but
this is not london this is all new york time so there’s a little bit of adjusting that needs to be
taken into consideration which is why i made sure at the beginning of the video i said make sure
your charts are set to new york time over here it needs to be that okay and if you
don’t have it like that everything you’re learning here if it’s at your local time
in your local time zone it’s going to be a mess so you need to calibrate your charts on trading view
to that and everything i’m showing you here is it’s the same thing every day every single day same thing
so back to the homework assignment i want you to think about
outlining what the session was in the morning and then what did the session do in the afternoon sometimes what you’ll see is
it’ll be bullish in the morning and then reverse in the afternoon or it’ll be bullish in the morning and
continuation higher in the afternoon and you’ll get like a measured move what’s a measured move
whatever the morning move was it’ll duplicate that twice so if it moves up 200 points in the
morning the afternoon could see another 200 points in addition to that and have a 400 point range
or we could have consolidation in the morning session and then it trends in the afternoon higher or lower
okay and i want you to go through your charts and look at that on an intraday basis do your charts like
this and i know it’s a lot of work but you want to learn how to do it right this is how you do it
then study what the daily chart was showing days before
when it had days that had these nice runs like this and yesterday and previous friday
so it allows you to help find these big moves
where if you’re looking at other like i’m not gonna say this to try to be mean spirited because that’s not my intent
here but i want you to compare and contrast like if you look around at all the folks
on youtube and again this is this is not me trying to be arrogant i just want you to
understand there’s a stark contrast to what i’m teaching you here and what is predominantly shown
in this area of trading okay index features
you’ll see traders that’ll get in here and they get in a price like that
and then they’re gonna make a big attempt to worry about
a move
like that and they’ll put lots of contracts on and you know trade this and have a whole lot
of hype and anxiety about whether or not it’s going to move in their favor and worry about their stop getting hit and
all this stuff and i don’t want you thinking like that okay
i don’t want you thinking like that at all i want you to think about how if this day was bullish for you
say you had the benefit of knowing that through analysis you felt that this was going to go higher
okay if that’s the case this swing low here first
swing low of any importance after 1 30. this is really important
1 30 i’m looking for swing highs and swing lows for the afternoon session that’s what i’m looking for
it’s the same context that i use for the morning session i’m looking for swing highs and swing lows prior to 8 30.
i’m looking for the first one okay i’m not needing to go back days and days and days i’m just looking for the first one
it’s not a complicated thing but at 1 30 that’s usually when i’m
wanting to start trading the afternoon that’s the earliest but i’m preferably
looking for a swing heinz swing low to form at 130 why 130 because there’s an
algorithm macro that starts running at 130. that’s beyond the scope of this
mentorship but just trust me there is something going on that creates
movement at 1 30 in the new york session okay in equity market
so when that occurs all we’re looking for or what i’m looking for is a swing high and a swing low and then
that same basis of looking for a stop hunt in the morning like we described here i’m
looking for the same thing here that’s it same thing so now think about this i’m i’m thinking that these stops
are in jeopardy because it’s too clean the level’s too clean straight line edges in the market
they don’t tend to stay like that there’s going to be a disruption the market’s been going higher hasn’t it yes
there’s this pent-up aggression
that this market wants to go higher but it’s seeing short-term resistance here here it tried
it a little bit here and then retraced inside the lunch hour the algorithm reserved
the price run until later in the day now watch what happens
this swing low here gets violated right there see that
that swing low gets violated right there that small little stop hunt is all that’s necessary
that will start what is called a buy program a buy program is when the algorithms
go into the process of spooling spooling is where it just continuously keeps offering higher prices if it’s a buy
program it just keeps offering higher prices it does not matter what the volume is it does not matter and i don’t
care who you know who worked at the exchange i don’t care trust me when i tell you if you go
through the charts you’re gonna see this okay look at the volume that comes in
sometimes it’ll be good volume and another like why is this happening right
that’s that’s your signature that’s how you know that this is being completely manipulated
so if it’s being manipulated doesn’t it stand profitable for you to know what it’s
likely to do not if you’re gonna know it all the time you’re not gonna know i don’t know it all the time but these things tend to repeat
and if they repeat a majority of time not every day but the majority of time if these things
are in alignment if they start showing the same fingerprints it’s probably gonna pan out and then you
can start doing long entries and then hold for the close
don’t get in here and try to trade these little mickey mouse moves and worry about them and over leverage and try to
put more contracts on than your account can really weather because if you don’t know what you’re doing
cheap leverage discount leverage can murder you can absolutely murder you and especially
in these kind of markets they’re very fast markets right now i’m loving it but it’s very quick violent volatility
and if you don’t know what you’re doing you can literally be dismantled
very quickly expediently okay so inside this area the market creates a
swing low runs through this low stop hunt so the stops below here are what
sell stops buy those sell stops i know it feels scary
but go through your charts and you’ll see many examples of this happening it’s the same thing took place over here
by the cell stops that are resting below here and expect this level to be taken out
consolidation through lunch after 1 30 in afternoon wait for a swing low to be violated
and then rally what if you don’t get a swing load it trades below it what do you look for well you look for a
move higher that’s sudden displacement higher
then look for a favorite value got if it trades back down to the fair value gap you buy that there’s your two patterns
that’s it it’s the only two patterns you need you don’t need 15 different gimmicky names okay you don’t need
breakers you don’t need an order block see how easy that is very simple strategy very very simple strategy you
have a trade one way or the other and the logic has to be there for either one
of them to form now i was not in
the e-mini s p today i was trading nasdaq so let’s go over to nasdaq and i’m going to save
time and not put all the lipstick on the chart i hope you can allow me that but
here is 130 we have a swing low there and it’s basically almost the same low
as that one so what’s happening here what’s that it’s trading down below it
see that look further to the left
what’s that fair value gap
i mean it can’t be that easy it can’t be that easy these relative equal highs what’s above that buy side liquidity
okay watch i’m gonna drop into
a one-minute i’m chart to scrub back here
to 130
and i don’t need to do 20 contracts or 10 contracts
to do like a 20 000 day that’s kind of like the flavor of the month right now
and if you look at this low and this low here what are
those they’re relative equal lows so that’s going to be viewed as what support retail support and they’re going to buy
those little runs here they’re basically going to chase that so if you look at
this through the scope of
below this level their cell stops and you think it’s
going to go higher like i believed it was going to go higher today
i want to be buying those stops all right so say you’re watching price it’s
meandering through through through and then all of a sudden that swing low forms right there
and we have this low here and we have the sudden drop down when you see that
if you’re watching it on a like a one-minute chart that’s going to look so dynamic so
aggressive if you’re zoomed in it’s gonna feel like the floor has just dropped out
but that’s exactly what you’re looking for to buy now you see
fellas out there on youtube you’re gonna see by contrast there are folks out there
that are trying to trade you know just a handful of ticks with a
lot of contracts that to me doesn’t make any sense but if that works for you then great okay
but i want you to think about in comparison and by contrast what seems more logical for you
to feel it’s worth more to pursue and study and learn how to do
something like that or it’s risk a lot put a lot behind the trade and try to
get just a little bit of a move or now this is a demo account okay but i
did trade live today too but just for the purposes of teaching the content
right there that low is the lowest candle
it rallies all the way up okay and then right here
that was a close there’s a better way to do this if you know what you’re looking for
you can be very very precise about it you can be dialed in
like nobody’s business like it is unbelievable in terms of the predictable
nature of these markets especially these markets because they’re they’re traded by a lot of institutions
and a lot of professional traders the manipulation that takes place in these markets
is still there but it’s not as well
vulgar or ruthless as it is sometimes in forex the interbank markets man they can
really really you know do to you dirty quick and more frequently
the futures market they tend to be a little bit more cleaner a little bit more predictable much more nicer in their
delivery now there are times when reports come out or something you know unannounced that comes into the world
scene and causes volatility when that occurs then you’ll get that
noisy look to price action just stand on the sidelines wait for things to smooth out
it may not be that same trading day may require you a day or maybe even a week let the markets go back into sync
and then they’ll start delivering very nice again but the main thing i want you to take away
is that you know showing entries like this and accents and stuff
it’s not it’s not all that much of a big deal
okay but it becomes a sticking point okay a
stumbling block for people that want to try to learn how to do this because if you lay it in front
of them they have to have lots of contracts to do something to be profitable
in such a small little move to me it communicates that that person that’s trying to trade
like that whether it’s the person that created the system or someone that’s trying to learn the system they really have no idea how price works
and how it looks because if they did they wouldn’t be trying to take these little tiny little micro moves out of the marketplace they will be trading
like i’m showing you here so if
you were to think to yourself hey i want to know what it’s like to be in a move where i can be
comfortable knowing that the daily range is going to unfold and i’m just going to submit to it
well these markets offer that 4x offers it too but right now in the last couple of
months really forex is being rather funky okay and because of that
we have transitioned to index futures there are times of the year where i
teach index futures trading because they’re predominantly more liquid
and or if there’s no real topic for me to teach to my paid mentorship group i’ll say i got nothing
for you for forex and then i’ll point to something in futures it may be a commodity market like last year i told everybody by the
grain markets they were gonna have a huge bull market boom they went up it’s a matter of knowing how to navigate
the price action okay but these markets here except for those sun summer months
and that being like july and august those months can be a little
hit or miss but the rest of the year they tend to be
really nice markets so if you’re looking to have your trading business framed on a asset class
that is really nice it’s professionally delivered where it’s not like a bucket shop you know
penny stock type market it’s these markets are really nice they’re very
systematic in the way they do things and they repeat but if you don’t know what you’re looking for or understanding
behind these mechanics that i’m outlining here at the very basic level
then you can obviously hurt yourself still so right away i’m showing you that there
are times in the day that you want to be looking for setups you’re not trying to do 25
trades you’re not trying to do 30 trades you’re not going to try to micro scalp
you’re looking for the real moves in the morning and the real moves in the afternoon and preferably if you get one
in the morning you don’t trade in the afternoon go to a demo and practice there don’t give the money back to the
marketplace especially while you’re you know you’re new don’t do that and i’m actually telling
you not to trade with live funds but i know a lot of you like to see things that are
traded with a live account like it’s a real account that shows
entries and and things of that nature and that’s the things that i’m doing this year okay i’m not going to do it in
2023 i’m not going to do it forever okay i did it that way
my students can feel at ease about it because even in my in my pay mentorship group i don’t
trade live funds there because uh for my protection i’m doing what i’m showing you right here in a demo but i’ve been showing
by the account trades this has proved that it works so hopefully you found this insightful and until i talk to you on thursday
be safe
Transcript
all right folks welcome back this is episode six in our ongoing ict mentorship on youtube for 2022
and the market efficiency paradigm and institutional order flow will be our topic for this evening
all right so how do we internalize price delivery first we do not trade patterns for
patterns sake we do not trade indicator readings or momentum
we look to enter longs where retail sells we look to enter shorts where retail
buys usually when you hear me say something like that or someone that’s been trained by me speak like
that it sounds like well you know you’re talking like you work for an institution you work at a bank you know
you’re you’re trading retail too yes we are all operating
through retail avenues to get to the marketplace what i’m teaching you is the internal
dialogue of what we’re doing we’re looking at price we’re not thinking
like the collective that is commonly referred to as the retail trader because
majority of retail traders lose they have a failed logic they don’t have consistency they don’t have
well longevity so we want to try to think and engage differently with price
that is opposed to the majority of what retail analysis concepts
you whatever it is that you subscribe to as a retail trader
you know all those things unless they’re rooted in the basis of liquidity and overflow
it’s made up it’s a religion and i’m not here to argue beyond that that’s
what i have come to to believe and that’s how i operate and my results
and the things that my students see speak for themselves
we anticipate price seeking opposing liquidity okay so what does that mean
well if you’re looking at this diagram imagine if we could take
price as a conceptual idea it doesn’t matter what market it is but let’s just say there’s
two camps there’s the informed or smart money and that’s represented by this small little
circle over here and then there’s a larger collective which is the speculative uninformed
money there’s a large influx all the time of new uninformed money coming in because
there’s a large influx of uninformed money going out because they lose their account they blow
up whatever equity they have in your trading account it’s gone because of lack of discipline and a flawed logic
smart money traders when they look at the marketplace they’re not looking at secret trading
indicators okay there is no secret indicators
just let me put that to bed right now now there may be traders that have tools
okay that they like to measure price action with that’s not like a stochastics
it’s not like an rsi it’s not like a
well anything you can find on a trading platform list of indicators okay those things are not reached for
by informed money what they’re specifically looking at is time and price
the most important thing is time because time that is
the most crucial element so time of day is vital when we’re engaging price
retail doesn’t really have any understanding or affinity for time except for the fact
that they have time now to trade because they’re in front of their computer or they have time to look at their phone while they’re at work and they’re
putting on trades okay that’s the extent of time when it comes to a retail average trader
time for a professional through the lens of smart money time is crucial because time
of day there are specific elements in a daily range that really build the
likelihood of volatility to come in and also when short-term reversals are likely to
occur okay so i mentioned in previous lessons that
there’s algorithms that will start to gyrate and cause price to run at specific times
of the day if you were watching the e-mini markets today you saw it happen at four o’clock
that was one of the times i gave and it was relentless today
smart money so that way i can make this real short and to the point smart money looks
to cannibalize this group of trader
so because they’re typically wrong in their directional bias in their
stop placement should they choose to use one because a lot of traders don’t use a stop loss as a retail trader because
they’re afraid they may expect the market to go lower and they understand that the
highs above where they’re at if they’re in a very small window of profitability unrealized profit means they’re still in
the trade but they don’t have a stop loss in now logic dictates that they should have a
buy stop in to protect their position in case the market screams against them at least it limits the amount of equity
lost but they may look at an old high and say okay i understand that my stop should be
above that but because of their infancy they have no idea where to put it above
that high they don’t want to put it too shallow because it might go up and hit it and stop out their trade prematurely
and or they don’t want to put it up too high and then it spikes through that reaches
for them and then it reverses and goes in the direction they’re holding so they take a big loss and get stopped out so those
are the two conundrums that a retail trader falls in
to that pitfall that trap and maybe you’re nodding your head and smirking thinking man i was there a lot
i know and i can admit back in the 90s 1992 1993 that was what i was doing all the time
you know i just didn’t know what i was doing and i was falling victim to myself in just infancy not knowing
but the smart money traders are not looking at price
with give me a pattern to trade off of you know a bull flag a wedge pattern or something of that
effect they’re looking at liquidity
what is the underlying narrative right now in the marketplace is it bullish is it bearish is the day’s daily range
going to go higher but how’s it going to go higher is it likely to go lower at the beginning of the day first to sucker
traders and going short run out sell stops they can acquire long positions at and then rally going into
the close or maybe into the afternoon and that would be the extent of their
plan of action and how does that speculative uninformed money
and its liquidity that it provides how can they utilize that that’s the market efficiency paradigm it’s efficient
for smart money traders to view the marketplace in that perspective versus
technical analysis the mumbo jumbo things that traders put on their charts okay
and you can lock me in there too because the times where i’m trying to use the logic that i trade with and if it fails
i’ve done something wrong i’ve interpreted price wrong i thought something was in price
and it wasn’t there and it rolled over top of it and there it is that’s a loss everybody’s going to have a losing trade
okay but i’m not looking at price
with patterns on the sake of just trading for the pattern’s sake in other words
just because i think i see a pattern there because there’s a misnomer that goes around trade what you see
well just like the trend is your friend that trend is not your friend when it’s
at the end and it’s reversing okay so there’s always a rule to the rule there’s always an exception to every
rule okay and that’s experience but what i’ve hopefully done in this model so far and i promise this is the
end of the boring stuff we’ll get into the nuts and bolts i’m stripping everything down
and placing components at their logical place and order so that
way you can go in the price immediately you don’t need 18 months you don’t even need four months
it’s immediate i’ve received a ton of feedback and i appreciate all that
that you all can go into the charts and see these things right away and some of you actually started trading it i’m not
asking you to do that i’m not trying to inspire you to do that you need to study it more but that’s how
quick and different all this is okay this is not your typical ict you know the stale
boring stuff this is the things that really work in the marketplace so with that in mind let’s continue
so i want to give a little bit more specifics about the fair value got that we have the rules what it looks like so that way you
understand exactly what it is and where it forms because this is going to repeat
every single time it’s going to be the same logic that i’m gonna show you here okay do not try to fancy dances okay and
try to turn it into some kind of a mentorship course and rename everything with your name and and don’t do that
okay just take it for what it is i already know people are going to try to take this and copy it and make
courses out of it okay i’ve already given it to you for free
if it helps you then god bless you okay all i’m asking for is just
appreciate the fact that i’ve taken the time to put it out here for you so the bearish ict fair value gap
this is institutional order flow and it’s a pattern that you can see the order flow
actually coming into the marketplace when you look at like
depth of market okay or if you study volume profile
that’s a religion okay what you’re looking at is data yes
but your interpretation is a private interpretation
it’s what you believe there may be a lot of other traders that have a similar
mindset about that very thing but simply because you think that
doesn’t make it true it doesn’t okay so what i’m trying to do is take my
students into the marketplace with a chart a time-based chart okay there’s some out
there that will say time-based charts are useless that’s because they don’t know how to use a time-based chart
because algorithms the first element they operate under is time hello
quants so we’re looking at what does a bearish ict fair value gap
look like well if you take a look at this diagram it’s rather crude i know
but you have a run preferably above some kind of old high so the first candle is the high
and the next candle is the extended low that goes below it
the third candle is another continuation candle but the main important factors are this it’s a three candle formation
the first candle’s low has to be traded below on the immediate following candle
the next candle has to trade with an extended low as well that went below
candle number two but does not trade with a high that trades back to candle number one’s
low what that creates is this small little gap where one candle only traded from
the range of the candle number one’s low to candle number three’s high so that
little space that’s occupied right there what is actually occurring there is
price is only being offered on the sell side there
so imagine if you’re painting your wall at your home okay and you take your roller you put it in the paint and you put the paint
up against the wall and you roll down okay at first the first foot or so
there’s going to be a an ample amount of paint delivered to the wall from your paint roller
but then as you keep rolling down towards the floor what will happen you’ll start seeing these little pockets that look really
porous okay what do you have to do to fix that you
just change directions and start rolling the paint roller back up the same place you roll down
that’s exactly what price does there’s an algorithm that delivers efficient market delivery
you can argue with me all you want you’re not going to convince me i know it
if you go into price action with that market efficiency paradigm perception looking for this characteristic in price
i promise you you will never look at charts the same way again it’ll unlock a
lot of things we’re going to move the matrix and neo finally sees the matrix as it
really is in binary code ones and zeros he has clarity well that same event as
silly as it may sound ends up happening when you look at price action when you start looking at it from this perspective so let’s go back into that
analogy with this between this candle is low and this candle is high we only have cell site
offered so that’s like taking the paint and applying it to the wall and drawing down with the roller
but now as you pull down there’s little pockets right in here between this candle’s low
and this candle is high where price has not been efficiently offered
for buyers why how’s that working
well you have sell side being offered here because the market’s delivering lower prices it’s offering continuously
lower prices between this candle is low and this candle is high to efficiently balance out that little
inefficient area at some future time the market’s going to want to trade back into that
area when it does and you’re bearish that’s a short signal okay you can go
short and sell there with the expectation it’s going to start to move lower
optimal formations of the bearish ict fair value gap will be found after a run into buy side liquidity so
it’s not a matter of going into charts and looking for this little gap all the time this model i’m teaching you on this
youtube channel is meant for you to look for periods where price runs above an old
high then it breaks down and then you look for this pattern this is what it looks like
you’re not looking at anything prior to this candle has absolutely nothing to do with anything except for the fact that
we treated above and on high that’s a very simple logic isn’t it and the run above a
single high or multiple highs like a double top okay either one of those fits this criteria
so what you’re looking for is a pool of liquidity of buy stops resting above these highs
that’s buy side liquidity smart money will want to trade up into that and go short
they may not be engaging above the high they may miss it just like any one of us that haven’t
been ready to take an order and place it in the marketplace they may miss that
this is their saving grace right here this pattern that’s what smart money is looking for
they’re looking for that right there and then once they see that they go in either with their limit order mark it in
something to that effect and get short and the stock would be above the high
okay there you go short and sweet done
that is exactly what you’re looking for for a fair value gap so when you’re doing your annotations on your charts
this is what you want to be doing all your back testing label number one candle
the number two candle is always going to be where the gap resides
and then the number three candle gives you the lower end the upper end of the fair value gap is going to be the low of
candle number one the lower end of the fair value gap is going to be
the high of candle number three and the difference between candle number one is low and candle number three is high
that’s the fair value you got so the easiest entry would be trading just
above candle number three’s high you can put a limit order right there and be done
simple don’t have to worry about guessing where to put your limit order in it’s right there
place your stop right above can number one or you can put it above candle number two
but while you’re learning how to use this that may seem like a lot of range
you want a lot of range when you first start out i’m assuming that all of you are brand new you may not be but i’m
teaching it with that perspective in mind some of you that have been with me for a longer time
you know how to reduce that stop and i know hearing that by some of you that are new you feel like you’re being
slighted oh you’re holding back no i’m protecting you because i know already some of you already are going out there
trying to treat life money and you may be reporting you’re doing good but you don’t know what you’re doing yet
okay just trust me you got to practice and do a lot of back testing then demo it
then you’ll get it the bearish market structure shift
what does that look like conceptually well you have the market trading higher
short-term little retracement then it trades above an old high or the initial short-term high that it trades above
here and then it breaks down once that low is broken
that’s when the new trade idea is now being birthed you don’t even know where
you’re getting in at yet until you go through this process i’m going to show you right now
the market will see a price delivery of a rally above an old high or highs
and then quickly shift lower that’s this right here now the significance i’m placing on the
term quick is linked directly to the term displacement okay it’s got to be
energetic it can’t be a little lethargic little move it’s got to show a real willingness to want to go lower
and preferably close below that
if it does that that to me is a little bit more significant
whereas if we just go through this low a little bit like a wick and come back up um
that to me is not all that convincing i want to see that it has absolutely displaced and then the candle closed and
then we look inside this range here so when you’re looking at market
structure shifts this is all time frames so don’t think this is just the intraday version of it
but i’m specifically dealing with intraday so when we create that high that
high down to the low that breaks the short-term low here so now we have that shift in market structure there right
below that low that is the displacement low this is your displacement high
so what’s the big deal about that oh you’re just trying to add some words ict sound smart that way don’t you
no it’s conceptual ideas being expressed so what you have in between that range that right there
you’re gonna be hunting your fair value gaps because that’s exactly where it’s going to form don’t take my word for it every one of
your examples are going to have this oh don’t take my word
that’s the only thing to believe go into your charts and you will be convinced of it
in short order period so if you’re bearish
and you see price run above an old high then it breaks below the old high and takes out a short term low
prior to that run above that short term low being broken
draw that out in time that’s your displacement low and the high is your displacement height so that range between here and here
that’s displacement how do you know it’s displacement how it closes down here below that low
is it just a real short little drop below it might have a fair value gap but it
also might be likely to go higher and create another high so that’s this is the secret to it here
knowing how we trade below that and if it’s energetic a lot of movement big a big beefy bearish candle that closes low
below this level right there okay if we have that as soon as we have that candle form
start watching to see if it creates a fair value gap in between this low and this candle’s
high or that range okay that’s exactly where the fair value gap
to sell short will form if there is no fair value gap in here guess what you don’t have a trade you
wait or go to another market because one of them is going to be there every single trading day okay every
single trading day this pattern forms
are you telling yes i’m telling you just like that every single trading day
this pattern forms every single day long and short
but you have to look for it with this process okay
everything i teach obviously is reversed the same way so i’ll just go through this a lot quicker because this is already becoming a longer video than i
wanted it to be but bullish ict fair value gap again institutional order flow pattern and it’s three candles formation
the candle here is number one the second candle here and the third candle there
candle number one’s high that is the low of the fair value gap candle number three’s
low is the high of the fair value gap candle number two is where the fair value gap will be formed
so that is your favorite value gap and everything you would expect to see in form of a
market run below an old low or multiple lows for sell side liquidity once it starts trading higher and takes
out a short term high that’s not being shown here okay cause i’m showing you the pattern itself this is what you’re
looking for okay this separation between three candles that’s the criteria
you have to blend in the logic of a market structure shift that’s bullish so what does that look like you have a
market trade below no low and maybe go a low another leg lower and create a run into sell
stops once that occurs then you’re looking for a run higher that takes out a short term
high and it closes above it with an energetic displacement higher
once you see that then you have a trade idea being birthed you don’t have a trade entry yet until you determine if
it has a fair value gap where does that reside between the displacement high
and the displacement low in between right before the market structure is broken bullishly and the low that ran
into the cell stops that is your range this is exactly where you’re looking for a fair value guy
so in that range that’s where your bullish fair value gap
resides if there isn’t one there you don’t have a trade is that not specific and clear it’s
perfectly illustrated there’s no ambiguity to it it’s exactly the logic
you’re going to use going forward it does not change it doesn’t mutate into anything you don’t bring something else
into it you don’t add something else that some other educator has taken my stuff and twisted it up and try to make it sound like something new and they’ve
created themselves no this is what you’re supposed to be doing
if you do anything other than this you’re not going to get the results you’re looking for and you’re not going to find
my ict fair value got okay
all right so let’s go into the price action you survived you made it here
so here we have the 15 minute timing frame from today this is the e-mini nasdaq and this is a 15-minute timing
frame this is where i tell you to start this is your bellwether chart naked chart okay pause the video
and look and see if you see anything of any importance which swing high
would you anchor where is there a stop run on buy stops
when you’re ready to listen to the rest of the video unpause the video
some of you never pause the video alright so we have 8 30 marked here okay
very specific right element of time 8 30 why because there’s news that comes out okay employment data came out today
so at 8 30 the market from that point on here look to the left
what do you see what’s the first swing how you come to right there is that hard was that
was that complicated no very simple so this high here
draw that out in time and you’ll get this right here okay but watch
with this run right there on a 15 minute time frame what do you do with it
well you start stripping down from a top down five minute four minute three
minute two minute one minute so once you have this level on your chart on a 50 minute time frame
you drop down to your five everything’s transposed from the 15 to the five minute you can see it trades
above it here and the market starts to trade lower when it’s trading lower in here
you’re going down into what the four minute
here we have here is there a fair value gap in here yet nope there’s one right there
see that right there so we traded below this swing low there’s a fair value got right there you
can enter there right on this candle’s high you can go short there what’s the rules
do you remember what the rules were you can put your stop above this here or the swing high
there’s a swing high right there candle number one
or the swing high does it hit your stop no this might be more than you’re
willing to absorb but there’s micros you’re only trading two dollars per handle there
it’s not twenty dollars per handle okay or four ticks it’s two dollars for each tick or 50
cents each tick so that’s not a lot of money being risked there but
i want to go down and really fine tune it so i’m dropping down through
all the time frames five four three two one and if i’m being completely
honest with you i have those charts all open at the same time across my desk
so i’m constantly referring to all of them now you can do that cycling through rather quickly
and just look for the form
in the two-minute chart you don’t have a fair value gap in here until there as well same entry and you
can put a stop there as well and on the one minute chart
we have the run here the break below the short term low here
fair value gap straight up into that look how many times it gives you a chance to get in this candle that’s one
two three then it continues even lower so you’re
getting a really really tight entry there now some of you gonna say oh yes guys talk
about hindsight i got you covered i actually went in and traded this today
on trading view and you’ll see me entering right here and writing down and taking out my
exits below an old low but i’m going to also teach you
how you can use the model here and use the exit strategy i use today
for external range liquidity oh something new so let’s go over to trading view
all right so i’m going to kill two bursts of one stone here i don’t use the replay button this is going to
be the first time you’ve ever seen me use it but it’s only for the purpose of teaching
how you if you can’t watch live data okay just
use this i guess is the best thing you can i guess have as an alternative
also i’m not sure if i mentioned this in the past but if you are going to tradingview.com and you’re pulling up
the symbol nqh2022 and you’re going into a one-minute chart
the data is delayed here and to be quite honest which i don’t recall if it’s 10 minutes or 20 minutes or i don’t know
exactly i don’t remember what the delay was but i pay the four dollar a month subscription rate to get the e-mini data
and i also have a professional account so i’m not sure if that four dollars a month is because i have a professional
account or if it’s just four dollars for anyone so you’ll have to investigate yourself to see if that’s something you want to
do you don’t need to have that data while you’re learning okay
you can use this function here so while i do have real time data because if i
didn’t you’d see like a little orange d up here letter d
that would uh basically communicate to anyone that would see the chart that it’s a delayed data
this is live data and i have it scrolled to this morning for february 3rd 2022
and i have my chart delineated with the 15 minute high with that level and
i’ll show you this and then we’ll zoom back out to a 15 minute chart you can see everything as it was because i’m going to show you there was actually a
trading entered on this today but you want to have a vertical line dealing
needed on trading the way you do that is simply go in here pick the vertical line and drop it right
there at 8 30 and there it is okay so for the replay button and i feel weird
just doing this because i just don’t do it but i have to do it because i know students need this resource while they’re
learning okay but i i don’t use this my mentorship that paid me to get education knows i
never even use this okay but i’m showing you so that way you can back test and practice and look at price action in a
way where it means something more than just looking at a static chart all right so
it started at the 8 30 hour our line here is at that 15 minute high so what
we’re expecting is a run above that high okay and i’ll keep it kind of quick i don’t
want to spend too much time with this so clicking the play button
we’re running above a short term high right here there’s a fair value got right there hit that now watch it should sell off that’s not what i want i want
to use this high back here but if you’re a scalper you could take that low out right there and that would have been a trade there as well but for the daily
range which is much more significant i’m using the 15 minute high i’m bearish
one day i’m expecting lower prices because we’ve already went up a lot on the daily chart
so now if you’re waiting all day you might look at this and say oh i missed it there’s nothing for me to do don’t
think like that okay because the equity market opens at 9 30 stock markets start
getting really busy and volatile around that time frame and we’re coming up on it in a few
minutes here and usually not always but usually the
first run at 9 30 is opposite to what the real move you want to be
doing not every time now here here’s a 930 volatility look how crazy it gets
okay it’s creating a low with another low here so there’s what what’s building underneath that
sell stops traders are being induced into thinking long trades go long go
long go buy and get in there and go high buy low sell high right
but it’s it’s sloppy in here but it’s keeping these lows over here intact
above these highs that’s where my interest is okay so i don’t have a trade until we get up
above this level there and this is on a one minute chart
okay small little shallow run we want something that’s going to push through it
no favorite value got filmed anyway okay i just paused it right there now
look at this initial poke above that high that we’ve drawn a line on it went
above it it went down yes did it create any fair value gaps in it no every
candle overlaps there’s no gaps there okay there’s also no swing low taken out
so there’s nothing in here yet now we have a higher high running above this high and the high we’re looking at
on the 15 minute timeframe which is denoted by that horizontal line right there now we have the likelihood
we if we’re watching it live we’re waiting to see does it break lower
if it breaks lower where is there a swing low right there
so if we can trade down below that swing low and as soon as it does that
look in the highest high that forms and that low see if there’s a fair value got the
forms
right there we went below it
after taking out the high here’s your number one candle
the number two candle and the number three candle so there’s your gap right in here
so if it trades back this candle’s high plus i don’t know one handle
or one tick maybe two ticks whatever whatever you believe is an ideal entry
for you the easiest one to is just go one tick above that and removes all the doubt and
there’s no guesswork there there it is and where’s your stop loss going to be above the high of candle number two
or you can use above candle number one which creates a swing high okay whichever one you can afford
and allows you to put the trade on some of you are going to look at to say oh this is too much risk okay then don’t
take the trade i’m just i’m giving you a model that works
boom right there that candle if you had a limit order right there that would trip you in going short and
your stop would have to be above here
another one right there there’s your second entry right above this candle here that’s entering that’s your limit
order getting in go short same stop
third opportunity almost completely closes in all that range right there see that
right there if you see that live it feels like it’s
going to keep going higher because this candle at one time when it was at the high was all green and bold
you need to trust and train yourself to look at this pattern as it’s forming because once you see dozens of it
occurring it changes your perspective you don’t get scared in fact it’s
fascinating to anticipate okay it went here so now it’s going to go lower so at that point
right there at that entry from this candle’s low to this candle’s high where’s about 50
about right here right so before we go any further where do we take our profits
well you have a fair value gap right there right you see that same thing just going up candle number
one it’s high kindle number two and number three the low the range
between candle number one’s high and the third candle is low that’s your favorite value gap so if you’re selling short up
here you can buy it back below here because you’re below 50 of the range that it range
from high to low you’re at a discount down here so there’s your first target
remember those equal lows down here i was telling you about what’s below that sell stops
so you want to be taking profits here and or here this is ideal okay
let’s go back and watch the rest of it
right there that’s it these are minute candles so you’re selling short here or maybe you entered
on the first one here so that’s minute one so one minute two minute three minute four minute five minutes six minutes seven eight nine ten eleven
minutes and you have 10 20 30 40 50
we’ll call it 60 we’ll just call it 60. 60 handles
in minutes okay that’s
literally over a thousand dollars in a matter of time that would probably be
longer spent for someone that smokes a cigarette think about that
if you are going to hold it
focusing below these lows down here okay
trust the bias that type of move right there is
intended to upset traders and get out and if they trailer stop lost too short
and aggressively they get knocked out right before the big move comes down takes out the lows down here
so we’re looking at right in here well let’s look for 14
680.
there it is now is that a lot of time
getting short here weathering some of this you already took first partial down here
so even with this pulling back your stop stays here
you use the first partial to kind of like quench that desire to roll your stop don’t do that
if you do that you’re probably gonna get stopped out because you don’t have the understanding or the experience to know where to place a protective stop while
it’s being trailed once it takes this low out down here and if you want to hold on to position then
you can roll your stop to here but not before why because you’ve taken out a significant intermediate term low
this low that is high on a one minute chart that’s an intermittent term
price swing so it’s taken out here but it’s also a full target
for selling short up here and getting out down here so what was the
rough price level we used well let’s look at the high here
14 we’ll just call it 14 800 just for sake of the math
so 100 100 handles is 14 700 and then we have
the 80 fourteen thousand six eighty so 120
handles that’s a significant price move using exactly what i’ve taught in this
model now for those out there to say oh this
replay button he uses the replay button that’s the first time and make sure you
remember the date because that’s the first time you see me ever do
market replay on trading view so if you look at this area in here
i’m going to show you paper trading account oh i said we were going to talk about that here is the account history
here you go the time put a shorter on let’s take a look at
where that actually occurs on the chart and i’ll show you the execution
right there two minis
fourteen thousand seven ninety two and a half and i think i was reading that wrong down here because i was showing you the exit
yeah close the short position yeah i read it wrong sorry
so the entry price here selling short two minis at 14 792 and a
half using the favorite value got holding on to it
first partial here fourteen thousand six seventy five and
then the limit order i had here was fourteen thousand six forty seven
so how does that look on the grand scheme of things
getting short here with that logic below the cell stops down here and in the limit order there
and hopefully you’ve got something from this and you’ve seen that there is obviously
more to it than just fluff it keeps repeating how many examples have you seen already since i started
teaching this it’s there and these are the two this is the first
uh order covered and this is the second one okay don’t look at this and say oh my gosh
he’s got 52 return and one day on first trade that’s nothing
that’s nothing but i don’t want you thinking that’s what you can do okay don’t think that please don’t think that
at all all i want you to do is practice on this logic it’s a simple process
so now in closing i revisited the idea of
this high to that low that’s your range okay if you put a fibonacci on that
man i tell you i wish i had this stuff and i was coming up god coming in here for free look at this
so we have 50 that’s your equilibrium so everything above that price level because this low
to that high that’s our price run and 50
below it is discount so there’s your little fair value got right there you see that that right there
that’s your target going short there but this is internal range liquidity
because it’s internal relative to this low and this high that range so it’s in the middle of that
range which makes it internal range liquidity what is the stops below these lows down
here external range liquidity so
partials internal range external range
your trade very simple logic isn’t it is there a lot of moving parts
did i confuse you simple isn’t it you may still have questions because you
may be entirely brand new to charting and trading that’s normal
but by practicing and following along in this in this video series it’s an ongoing mentorship it’s not going to stop next week okay
this will help you understand but i have to give it to you in bite-sized pieces because i give you too much
you know it’s not going to be meaningful to you but the logic hopefully even if you don’t understand what i’m
drawing you to in your own chart like you can’t find it yet on your own chart i’m showing you exactly where it forms
and is every example i’ve shown you happening in the time of the day the same way each time and is it
performing as i taught it yes that’s a model that’s a trading plan
that’s an executable idea that you can go in and engage with a demo account
and over time you get good at this you determine what you want to do with it i’m never going to say go and trade
live money with it but i already have people already that have
been trading for a while they’re a little bit more versed than some of you if you’re brand new it’s okay but
traders that have been doing live fun trading for a while this really resonated with them
and they could see it and it wouldn’t enter this week and they were catching trades real trades and
like i said i don’t want the credit for that but i already know this stuff works it’s
sending me emails telling me that this is amazing and it’s great please don’t do that you don’t need to do that i already know it works i’m
giving it to you so that way you can be fascinated by it okay this is just one model
of dozens that i have and this is the stripped down version so hopefully
you find insight and obviously you know benefit from following it and if you don’t
you know i’m sorry i didn’t scratch that itch for you i’m sure if you study other things
in my youtube channel you’ll probably find something else that tickles your fancy until i talk to you next tuesday
enjoy weekend and be safe
Transcript
hi folks welcome back this is the seventh episode for the ict mentorship
on youtube 2022 this lecture is going to be dealing with daily bias and consolidation hurdles
all right folks welcome at the daily chart for the nasdaq and
if you’re looking at trading view under the nasdaq selection so it’s the continuous
contract that way it makes all the candles look nice and crisp and you don’t see any spotting so right away if you’re looking at this you should see
this run on price taking out buy side liquidity solutions relative equal highs here
ran above it then broke below swing low created what
everybody got trades up into it now where’s it going to trade to
this low to this high mid point there’s a gap right there and they have the old low
cell here aim here or here and it runs it out
now this is important obviously it sounds like well you know you’re cherry picking in the pack
old moves okay that’s how you learn but think about what’s happened on a daily
chart we traded below this low we’ve taken cell side liquidity out of
the marketplace so with that it’s likely to retrace back up into the
range what’s the range this high to that low but look closer
see how we have this nice energetic run look how many down close candles we have here one two three four
a lot of movement there so i’m looking at this high in this low
and i’m trying to get a range for where we are at present
so once the cell side was taken out here it’s likely to retrace back inside the
range of this high and this low we’ve seen it come all the way back up it went to a premium market which is
above equilibrium here and then we went down below to a discount bounced off of the old low
here then we’ve consolidated around equilibrium
now when you have this condition it can make it very difficult to get a
true reading on bias okay so there’s times when even me as ict i don’t have a
good clear read on what it is i’m looking for so i have to demand more price action
and more information or intel as i like to call it based on what the market’s going to do
right after the open at 9 30 in the morning new york time for disclosure in my own paid membership
i mentioned to them that i felt that this was a likely area where they could probably take it down there and sweep
that area whether it goes lower or not it’s irrelevant but where we were here to
here that’s what i was expecting some type of move last night for
tuesday’s trading okay so tuesday’s trading the 8th of february 2022
going into the marketplace i was anticipating something that would be bearish that’s going to be
useful to us when we go into lower time frame charts because i’m going to show you what i had to deal with this morning and how i had to overcome that this is
something that if you’re using these concepts and practice with your demo account you’re going to have these same conundrums and you have to find a way to
overcome them and i’m just going to suggest this to you here but before we go into lower timeframes i
want to teach bias okay so if we have this set up on a daily chart market structure has a shift lower
we trade up into a fair value gap until we get down to here and here
each day i’m anticipating lower prices so my bias
is bearish now every single day is going to be a down closed candle but i’m going to hunt
intraday price action with that in mind if i’m going to take a long it would be
counter trend to that bias my leverage is going to be dialed back so let’s assume for a moment that the
account that i was trading with would allow me to trade 10 contracts
10 contracts would be the maximum i could trade so if i’m trading with the bias which would be bearish during the
run from here to here and here then i’m going to look to utilize the
maximum leverage that i can have without over leveraging by based on a fixed
percentage basis like i like three and a half percent i’m not telling you to use three and a half percent you should be risking less than
one percent about a half percent or a quarter percent because if you don’t know what you’re doing there’s no reason to be
putting higher levels of risk behind a move if you don’t know what it is you’re doing it’s gonna create
toxic thinking bad habits and you’re gonna be afraid to execute based on the results you’re getting
so you want to be indifferent to the results that in the beginning is important by having a demo account using
very very low leverage if not deleveraging okay and i’ll talk a little bit about that
when we get into money management but that’s not this topic so from this high down to that low
each day i’m going in with the expectation that it’s going to likely set up a sell scenario where i can get
short and hopefully buy back at a lower price
count how many up days or green candles there are from this high and this high
down to that low one
two real important so the delivery
by the algorithms are spooling that means price is expanding and going directionally one way
when that occurs there’s going to be times when you have an up close candle
that may be a day that you tried to go short and maybe you’ve lost okay no big deal same thing going into
the next day going in for looking for shorts next day same thing same thing and then here
it opens and trades down below the low and has a huge expansion move and then comes back above and that’s it
it closes on the near the high today or mid point of the body in this area here
is there a lot of up close candles during that bias being bearish no
you need to get over the concern about being right every single time you need to put aside also
the idea of perfection because you’re not going to have it perfect you’re not going to get in perfectly you’re not going to get out perfectly
you’re not going to have the perfect amount of contracts you’re not going to have you know the perfect
asset in other words you may be trading the nasdaq and the e-mini s p has a little bit better run
and delivers a little bit more highly unlikely but vice versa you get what i’m saying
so you’re always going to find reasons to be wrong embrace imperfection
embrace the idea that you don’t have to know everything you don’t have to be right okay being
right is not equivalent to being profitable very important factor there
so with bias in short you’re looking at your daily chart to
get a read on where it’s likely to go to next year where’s the price going to draw is it going to draw higher to an
old high is going to draw down to an old level and until it gets that
high or low you stay with that bias okay so
it’s a quick down and dirty way of interpreting price action for daily bias but
the folks that i’ve taught that are hung up on daily bias
really what they’re trying to say is and this is exactly what they’re getting at but they can’t either articulate or they
just won’t be honest with it or me what they want is tell me how to get the
high of the day when it’s bearish and how to get out at the low and get all the move
and never take a loss and avoid when it’s going to be a day that goes against me
where i feel uncomfortable now that might sound extreme
and maybe some of you that have issues with daily bias are thinking to yourself that’s not me i just want to know when
it’s going to go up when it’s going to go down i’m telling you if you strip it down that’s what you’re trying to do you’re
trying to demand that i give you some magic bullet that’s going to give you the
absolute highest high and the lowest low on the bearish and bullish days so that way you’re trading perfectly
i don’t trade perfectly no one trades perfectly so you have to have this
embracing of the gray area in the marketplace that gray area is where
things aren’t always so clear but because of experience you’ve had in the past seeing things unfold the way
they hopefully would if you’ve been trained properly then there’s nothing to fear even if you
do it wrong and you have a adverse reaction or result to taking a trade
using the logic that you’re training with there’s no reason to be fearful because one or two or maybe a small string of
losing trades does not in any way shape or form diminish the effectiveness of a model if it’s based on sound logic
so you’re going to utilize the daily chart to determine whether or not
the next candle is going to be likely bullish or bearish between this high here
in the midpoint of this low to high i’m expecting down closed candles that
would equate to a bearish bias it doesn’t mean that i can’t take a long entry it just means that if i do take a
long entry intraday i’m going to do it with far less leverage and if i see a setup that’s bearish
i’ll use or consider using not always but i’ll consider using my maximum risk which is four and a half percent
but i’d like to see trades that i feel comfortable with with three and a half percent
until we get down to this low and underneath it that means it’s likely to reverse or consolidate
and we have a retracement back in so once it starts doing this and it’s hanging around equilibrium
it gets very difficult even for me to determine a bias
so what does that mean no trading no it just means that you have to rely on these smaller time frame intraday charts
and just simply look for liquidity pools so you’re going to trade intraday volatility running old highs running out old lows
being a lot more nimble and
like a surgical strike you take your handles or your points you’re trying to get out of the marketplace
and then run you don’t try to overstay your welcome so let’s go down to a lower time frame
all right so we have the 15 minute time frame and we have our 8 30 in the morning
cross hairs here cross hairs are the vertical line that denotes the time
that we start looking back to the left okay right here go to the left we see here this is our
first low so we mark that and right in here
to first to the left is here we don’t want to use this low by itself because
it’s inside of this candle so i want to use the extreme where’s the
liquidity going to be it’s going to be above this or it’s going to be above that it’s gonna be about this okay why
why not that one and why this one keep looking left what do you see over
here see that these are relative equal highs what does retail traders see that as
resistance so they see it going up to here stopping and going lower they see it going up
here failing to go up here so now they think this is a really strong resistance level
and it went lower look at that then the market showed how that level was real resistance by going
right through it but this would be a first target here to reach for
and if you want to use a longer term intraday target would be back here because
to the left of this one is this one which essentially is the same then we have this one here okay
so obviously with the benefit of hindsight you can see that we traded below that low
here then we reversed and started going higher we took out this high here
which i traded this i did not hold for this now the question is going to be is why
didn’t you hold it for that one ict well if you look at the range from this high
down to the low over here about midpoint is just above this high
right and we have this little imbalance right there so what if i’m teaching you in this
mentorship i’m looking for about the midpoint and
some kind of a liquidity there’s my stops are above that okay so we traded below
i went along on that candle i’ll show you in a live account trust me just hear me out
i bought it right up here and i took out this candle here i got out on that
high now i could have held it but to do so
would be painting the picture that you can do this and take down these types of trades all
the time when the reality is you require a lot more time to develop than you probably think
it will require one of the things that happens when i have students come under my tutelages
they have been fooled by listening to people talk about the left side of the chart
all the time and they can’t execute on the right side and it
is useful in the beginning but if that’s all there ever is and if your educator can’t trade on the
hard right edge of the chart it kind of makes you feel
well either a false sense of security or a false sense of confidence that quickly gets evaporated when you
trade with a live account or creates analysis paralysis and i have a
large body of students that are lumped into one of those categories
they’ve been utilizing some other concept or approach or they call it
smc smart money concepts and they’ll think to themselves that you know this is what’s going to have to
happen in a chart and it isn’t because they’re lacking narrative
so one of the things that i’m teaching in this mentorship in my paid mentorship
is how to view the marketplace from a narrative standpoint what’s the logic why should the market do what it’s doing
it’s not enough to see how a low is taken out in the extracted to go higher or high taken out and accepted to go lower there has to be some greater
context behind it and that’s what i gave in the beginning of the video
now on the two minute chart why the two minute chart well that’s for your homework you go through the five minute
the four minute the three minute the two minute and one minute chart i’m going to utilize the two minute
chart because this is what i was using today for my own analysis okay all right so you can see how we have the old low
here we trade down below it and this 1004 i’m actually highlighting that
candle right there the reason why i’m using that candle is low and taking the screen capture there so i
want you to see the low candles price okay so that’s where your stop would have to be just below that maybe one one
tick by going long in here based on the logic i’m going to start to outline here
the market trades below the old low trades below it rallies above but does it trade above
this short-term high yet no then it goes down once more
below the old low but not below this low here then it turns and goes higher
what did i see in this chart that allowed me to go long in here
what did i see nothing
i didn’t see anything in this particular chart i saw it in the s p before i leave this chart
i want you to think about how that high was around fourteen thousand six twenty and it was
this candle here i got out at that one right there then it retraced a little bit and then
went higher pressed into the ultimate longer term high sweeping the buy side there
let’s take a look at the s p s p similar situation here
high that’s the best case scenario for the day this high here that’s where it could
reach for 8 30. we’re right here what’s the point of expecting to go above that
not much we want to see some kind of a protraction so the market yes it went above that short-term high and then went lower than
that low yes but watch what happens it trades below it comes back up and look at all
the volatility and the sloppiness inside this area here then the market starts to rally
so the draw liquidity is going to be here it took out cell side here so let’s look
inside this price action to see if there’s any details that would lead to a run into that
we’ll call it the 4495 level okay
so the two-minute chart this is what i was using the market trades below the old low as
we see here i apologize the screenshot i wish i would have had these things on it
but you can look at your two-minute chart on trading view and you’ll see this a little bit more clear i apologize but this low candle
it’s high then we have one candle up the next candle is low there’s your favorite value got
that’s the run in here so we have displacement low and displacement high is there a market
structure shift bullish yes it trades up love it and you look for the fair value gap is there one in here no anything in
here no how about here no it’s closed in with this move down here
but we have this so we trade down into it here at 10 36 that candle forms
that’s a long in s p now compare that with
this fair value gap in the s p we traded below the old low we took sell side out we have a shift in market
structure on the s p these averages tend to move in tandem
so that means they generally move in the same direction so i’m looking at the dow even though you don’t see me trading it
i’m looking at it i’m also looking at the s p even though i’m favoring the nasdaq because its
volatility and its movement is more than the s p other traders might be fearful of the volatility say i want to trade
that’s too fast for me i am loving this because i know how to trade i can work within that volatility because i know
what i’m looking for i know the signatures the algorithm is going to put out so until i get these signatures
i have to wait or put leaders into the marketplace which is what i’m going to show you when i show you my live account results today but at 10 36 let’s go back
up to the nasdaq we don’t see any fair value gap in there
do we nope but we start to see nasdaq turning
so i went in long in close proximity to this order block
okay i went in at 14 505. that’s inside of this order block
so i’m trading close to it now i promised i wasn’t going to teach order blocks that much in this mentorship and
some of you have been leaving comments oh i’m not into this now because you’re not teaching order blogs okay go watch
something else i’m going to teach it the way i want to teach it okay it works and you have to get yourself
acclimated to how i’m teaching it or don’t watch okay i don’t mean to be rude but i’m not taking suggestions on how to
teach you so if we’re expecting a fair value gap to be a launching point
for the s p and these markets generally move in tandem i don’t need
the fair value gap in the nasdaq because i’m utilizing the s p as my indicator
what did i just say the word that should not be spoken
indicators yeah even though i don’t have them plastered all over my charts like graffiti
you can see the candlesticks in my charts you can see the logic you can see how the markets run for liquidity
there’s nothing hiding or masquerading price you can see it it’s clear you need that you need to be able to read the
story of price and not the story of indicators so the logic is
that s p low in here was trading down into an old fair value gap over here in its
price swing but there is no fair value gap in the nasdaq see that now let’s go back down into the s p
even my own pay memberships learning something tonight i should have charged money for this one
oh ict fair value gap trade down into it there that’s along for s p
but i don’t want to trade the s p so i’m going to use the timing of that candle
for my long entry on nasdaq trading what’s not in the chart
hint nudge nudge so market rallies and it trades into that short term high
that was seen on let’s go back up right here so again just roughing it
around that four ninety six forty four ninety four
we’ll just call it ninety six forty four ninety six and that would be right in here bang
hits it sweeps it accumulates some more in rallies even higher taking out that longer term old high
all right what gave me the confidence that this was turning here
well let’s take a look at the three averages together if you look at how the market’s trading low here on the dow this top chart is
the dow futures the nasdaq futures is in the middle and the s p’s at the lower end here so it’s
dow nasdaq s p during that decline
in the nasdaq and the s p look what the dow is doing
it’s saying nah i’m going to sit this one out boys it’s not willing to make that lower low
where nasdaq did s p did when you see that right there and
here’s an important thing you anticipated already you’re not looking for this this is what
some of my students when they come into my mentorship they see this pattern they think oh it’s diverging so it means it’s going to go the direction
no this is something that confirms an idea that you had already established before
price does what it’s doing real time what does that mean
you’re already looking for a reason to go higher so that means you’re looking at an old low does it trade below the old low okay does it have a shift in
market structure that’s bullish yes we saw that in the s p but we did not see it in nasdaq no evidence whatsoever was in nasdaq
this morning with what i’m teaching you but it was listen
it was in the s p and
no i don’t trade the dow but i utilize it like an indicator it’s not plastered all over my chart i’m
referring to it because i have multiple monitors i’m looking at my screens i have a screen that shows charts like
this so i’m looking at the relationship of all three averages stacked over top one
another and if i’m looking at a period of time and an area in price action that maybe is
going under accumulation for long positions this is what i’m looking for i’m looking for that little fingerprint of the
algorithm what this is indicating is the dow is unwilling to go lower than that low
that tips off individuals that are looking for cracks in correlation
okay correlation would be they are moving lower here
here and here but that that correlation where they move in tandem together
cracks here at a very important time
right when the nasdaq and the s p are trading below its old low i get questioned all the time ict how do you
know it’s going to be a fake break below and old low and rally higher or a fake break
above an old high and go lower which is what i dub a turtle soup now
that’s not the same pattern that is taught in lunaresch and larry connor’s book street smarts which is actually an
excellent book i have my own interpretation of that which is very easy it’s simple there
isn’t like you know i’m not going to teach their pattern go buy their book and you support the authors but the idea
is i’m looking for runs above old highs to set up a short position if i have the opposite of this condition
here where maybe the dow didn’t make a higher high where the s p and nasdaq did make a higher high
by itself it doesn’t mean anything so many students over the years have simply went in there said oh this is magic i’m
going to go just do that and i unwillingly did the same thing when i first started observing it i’m
thinking i don’t need to do anything else i just look for this and it didn’t work out well okay i blew
accounts yes i’m not ashamed to say it in the 90s i blew accounts doing this very thing here just looking for these
divergences and then i later learned that i have to have some kind of narrative as to
why this would even form and to be honest with you i don’t personally need to see this
because i know what i’m looking for i already know that it’s going to create this divergence
at the times i’m trying to buy but as a developing student you may not have that experience and there’s nothing wrong
with that and you may have you may be trading longer than me maybe you’ve been trading 31 years you know there’s nothing wrong with that maybe
you don’t need this either but for a developing student someone that doesn’t have a affinity for reading price action naked
and not using indicators these are the best indicators you’re ever going to have you don’t need moving averages
you don’t need stochastic you don’t need fibonacci you don’t need internet stuff okay you don’t need it the only reason
why i’m pulling a fib up is to show you where the midpoint is have you noticed that we haven’t even talked about
optimal trade entry none of that stuff i’ve stripped this down to the chrome and it’s beautiful is it not it’s easy
it’s so simple it better be easy enough for my daughter to do it because if you can’t do this one i don’t
have anything for but nonetheless i want you to think about how
this pattern confirms the accumulation of long positions
now let me correct those of you that are going to take this information run out there and create your own videos or your
own little courses or your own little mentorships okay because if you don’t do this right you’re going to hurt the people that are
listening to you and i just don’t want them to get hurt because of your lack of understanding what’s going on
the dow is not going down because buyers are coming in
that’s not what’s happening here that’s what authors and book writers and people that don’t really trade or code
algorithms will have you believe this is an unwillingness to deliver to
that low this is a macro a macro is something inside of an algorithm that prevents or
enables delivery delivery of what price
so the dow is unwilling to go lower here okay by itself means nothing does it happen at the same time that the nasdaq
went lower yes at the same time the s p went lower than that low yes okay so let’s go back
here’s that old low prior to 8 30. remember
algorithms run on time and price not price and time
multi-level marketers the low that’s the price yeah but you have to
refer to time first what’s the important factor of time 8 30 go to
the left what’s the first low right there boom so there’s liquidity below that it trades below it here
then wait do we get a signal that allows us to hunt what i’m teaching
on this mentorship there’s the swing high it breaks it there
so now market structure shifted bullish look back through this price leg there’s your fair value got oh but what happens
if it goes down there and it keeps on going that’s what your stops is for
remember what i said earlier in the video some of you are so
new okay your infancy as a speculator and trader is
it’s getting in the way of sound logic because what you’re thinking is there’s a way for you to
trade and never take a loss there’s a way for you to somehow and this is nowhere near true
that you could enter the market and your stop never needs to be placed because you’re right
because what you’re saying is i’m afraid to be wrong that’s a psychological barrier that you
need to get over because i’m going to show you my live account and there’s going to be some negative numbers there
those negative numbers sometimes are premium payments for me to get more intel
okay and with that let’s go into the continuation of this
all right so here is my live account and i did some trades this morning
i got to my desk a little late this morning i couldn’t focus i had some expectations i
wanted to see it go lower i told my paid membership last night that i’d prefer a move lower
we got a really sloppy opening which is really characteristic of the 9 30 opening a lot
of people tell you don’t trade the 9 30 opening that’s scary it’s too much volatility
i actually don’t mind it because i’m actually putting sometimes a order in to get a
feel for what it’s doing now right away if i just show you this chart and don’t give you the context behind it
you’re going to hear people they’re going to take my video and they’re going to do all this armchair quarterback after the fact it’s never been traded by
them they’re not doing a live account they’re always playing in demo accounts blowing demo accounts they always have
something negative to say about everybody else but they’re not doing anything in themselves here’s the context that’s important okay
back in the 90s i learned a lot of things from a floor trader that actually traded the s p on the
floor i also picked up more insights from larry williams about trading the s p
and also george and jill now george angel had a really interesting concept when i first heard
about it i kind of immediately discounted i was like that’s stupid and what is it well
on the floor sometimes traders would have just
a disconnect they wouldn’t have a read on what the price is doing
so what they would do not just george but everybody on the floor would generally try to do this as well they would simply go in and buy or sell
short one contract and just see what happens now
for someone that doesn’t know what trading is like never traded with live money or just now learning
that’s going to be like that’s stupid if you don’t know what you’re doing why would you put an order in well
if you want to know how the market’s likely to deliver put some skin in the race you’ll have a
greater feel for what it’s doing when you put an order in it doesn’t need to be a large order i’m only putting one
contract i can only trade one contract because of the equity i have in the account it’s like 21 plus thousand
dollars to do one nasdaq contract and it’s justified because of the volatility you could be up or down five thousand
dollars in a session so you know discount brokers are not a saving grace
so i put order in two times i got to my desk late i wanted to dial in and the surest way for me to do that
is just to toss a contract in now when i do that i’m trying to read
what the price is doing against that order i’m not trying to pick a spot when i’m tossing that in there either
now i understand how someone that would never have had any experience trading with real money would look at that and
say that’s dumb like that’s somebody that doesn’t know what they’re doing no you have no idea the benefits of having that it’s
like dropping a hook in water that you’ve never fished in you test it see isn’t it i don’t get any
bites here if i throw a short order in or if i throw a long order in
i’m watching i’m getting a feel for what the market’s doing once that order’s in there and i’m
reading the reactions i’m not looking at the equity okay i’m not i’m not trying to get a tug-of-war sensation internally
of making money losing money i’m watching how price delivers around that order is it easily moving
away from that order or is it lethargically moving away or is it completely running against it
that in that immediate feedback that that feedback loop that it gives
you as a trader because you have something in there that’s worth something you’re going to be more attentive to
what price is doing and what you’re familiar with with reading price than if you were just watching the charts paint
the candles and it’s something that it’s true when it comes to like learning with a demo account this is the limitations of
learning with a demo because you can test the waters okay by throwing in a single
contract and if that contract is basically
you know ran over for a lack of a better term then you know that
your bias probably isn’t in alignment with that order so if i’m trying to hunt the bigger move
of the day i will sacrifice these initial little runs i’m not doing it all the time remember where we started this video
we’re in the middle of that range on the daily chart so technically it can go either side of the the range and take
liquidity i don’t know when i’m going to sleep at night time and also when i’m doing videos earlier in the evening i don’t
know where price is going to be at at 9 30 in the morning new york time the next day i don’t know that no one knows that
okay no one’s going to know that so when i build a trading plan or idea around what i would prefer to see i’m only
looking for that the night before everything changes when we walk up to
that 8 30 you know vertical line it gets put on my chart to show you now
based on those ideas and the relationship of the information i’m getting with that
initial contract going in at the opening at 9 30 i’m getting a read on price sometimes
these trades pan out and it’s profitable that’s not the point and sometimes it creates a small drawdown on the account
that small drawdown if you count that as a skill thing you’re missing the point
entirely okay if you can get yourself and avail yourself some
you know writings by george angel invariably you’re going to hear him or read him suggesting he’s done this and floor
traders did it as well when i started implementing it and i’ve done this with forex too sometimes my
students will tell you if we were all in a big stadium okay and we were all like saying raise your hand if i said this or
if i did not say that they would all raise their hand when i say sometimes i’ll do this with forex i
just want to know what it’s doing i need more information and there’s no better feedback loop than
to put something at risk in the marketplace because you don’t have anything at risk with a demo you can put a trade on with a demo but
you’re not really feeling anything from that you’re only really
drawing a connection when it’s right when it’s wrong it’s just like well whatever i’m not i would have never
taken that trade anyway so it’s important you know the context here
okay with that aside let’s move forward so these are me putting in
a leader in the market just to see if i can get a better read even though i want to see it going lower i’m not so sure
with all this back and forth movement i don’t know if it wants to run higher for reach for a higher form of buy side
liquidity or if it’s going to run lower for that low so i tossed in two orders and you can
see them when i show you the history of my next slide
but all this went away and then here’s where i went short here and i covered basically then i went long right on that
candle right there it was my price 14 505 and a half
okay and i closed above that high remember the high was at fourteen thousand six twenty
here it is fourteen thousand six twenty two and three quarters so that’s 117 handles
i don’t care about these little mickey mouse moves back here because that is a premium for intel
i’m going to make a small investment to get a better read on these types of moves here okay if i show you these
types of charts or i make them available on the internet with no context behind them whatsoever none
they would be trolled all day long and they would beat their chest and feel smart like they’re saying something that means something they have no idea they
have no reason to think that they anything they’re saying is valid or true
but i’m showing you the logic here okay this is not
latency okay when i was doing latency tests that is me testing the feedback timing from
putting a trade in how fast i can put orders in what type of slippage i’m getting because i have an algorithm and
that timing is important for me because this account won’t stay at one contract it’ll
eventually grow so i can do more so i need to know how fast i can ramp it up or is it going to take me a little
bit longer term time frame to build it up before i can start pressing it harder
everything i’m showing you in this account is all one mini contract basis not more than one just one because of
the leverage in the limitations of margin it won’t it would prevents me from doing
so okay as you can see it’s thirty seven thousand eight hundred twenty three dollars and fifteen cents
and those trades that i showed you on the chart here is that
history or whatever somebody was posting uh
show us the history you know it’s not a live account unless you can show this area here well here’s the trades i’ve
taken for today here was the initial trade here
okay you might look at this and say oh man i wouldn’t do that pay 750 dollars
i’m looking for significant price moves i’m looking at trades that are a little bit more significant intraday because
that’s the model i’m teaching you now i can teach you a very high frequency type trading style that literally will blow
the doors and beat the brakes off of all these supposed algorithms that youtube’s promoting
and they won’t have these types of trades in them okay it’ll be just real clean like 500 pip or 500 runs or 300
runs on equity and then you get in and get out one contract so as you build this up you know ten contracts it would
be easy for you to do three five thousand dollars a day if you take the results i’m showing you here
these are the trade results these are my two leaders i put in okay and i got a better feel for what the price was going to do now i took the trade here this one
here once we got closer to the actual setup around 10 30 10 36
candle these again i was testing whether or not that there’s going to be a run now i’m
sacrificing this and a little bit more of my starting equity
to get that information because i know if i get the right intel i know if i’m
buying okay i’m going to be buying then i’m going to look at the s p like i showed you tonight
the pattern the setup remember what i was telling in the beginning of this mentorship
this pattern forms every single day but you have to look for it it may not be in your asset it may not
be in your particular market but it exists all of these markets move
like boats in a in high tide and low tide all boats rise in high tide all boats
drop and lower with low tide so i’m trying to get a read
on this environment as a whole not just my own asset class since i’m trading the
nasdaq i’m not limiting my view or analysis to just nasdaq there has to be some inter-market relationships
okay and i’m combining markets that i’m not even trading like the dow and the s p but i’m using the feedback that
they’re providing me in terms of inter-market relationships so that’s what i taught you tonight
inter-market relationships and using the consolidation hurdles or like
when you have a consolidation what do you what do you do well this is what i do you know i’ll throw a contract in there
to see what it’s doing and i’ll get a feel for that i don’t care about drawdown
because i’m comfortable i can go in and fix the drawdown at the end of the year you’re going to
see that every single day in here there’s draw down and i correct it
my goal is no losing days now that’s not something that you should have
as a goal coming out of the gates as a new student i’m not saying that you’re ever going to get to that point and i do have losing
days but i’m not showing losing days predominantly if i have a losing day
here or there it’s probably been two since the start of this account
i fixed the drawdown i know how to do that so when i was doing latency tests and i’m testing td ameritrade speed and how
they can deal with my positions when i’m getting in getting out getting in getting out i’m getting a read on how fast they can
fill me what type of slippage i’m having because when you start doing lots of contracts
that’s going to mean a whole lot more than just one contract but one contract as you can see here
i want to say this real quick and get out of the way um the profits and loss category right there that little tab
it’s at 13 927 that is not a lot of money folks it’s not but it’s 51 plus percent now
in two weeks of trading two weeks well two weeks and two days now a day say two weeks in one day
so two weeks one day fifty one percent now it’s one contract if i was trading
with 10 contracts we would be in some serious money then
right you’d start paying more attention though then right 13 000 almost 14 000 isn’t that much money
but what happens if you start doing that every single month i’m not suggesting that you can or will or promising that you will but what happens if you do
could you make a living on that i’m just asking i put a
poll on my community tab and i asked everyone that would read it is 20 a month
return is at a respectable rate of return and if you look at the results it’s
predominantly yes the other answer was no it’s not enough for me now i know there’s a lot of trolls that you
know like to watch me they’ll put whatever the expected adverse choice would be
they’ll choose that one okay but i’m sure there’s some of you that think because your first
you know impression about trading is everybody gets rich and nobody loses money and everybody gets lamborghinis in the
first three months and it’s just great you know nothing nothing bad can happen it’s all up from here
and i’ve never been a mentor like that okay i’ve had very nice flashy things but i don’t try to promote that idea i teach
you this is going to take a lot of work but the work and the things that are real about this industry and how you’re
going to have to get like i’m teaching tonight what causes me to get clarity because sometimes i don’t have it
i don’t know is something i say periodically and not knowing something is not
ignorance it’s not an absence of skill it’s honesty and you have to be honest
with yourself and you cannot assume that you’re going to be coming into these markets being perfect because perfect is
not something that exists in trading it does not exist there is never going to be someone that’s perfect
you’re in this industry to do what make money that’s it if you’re in here for any
other reason i’m here to impress my dad impress my mom my girlfriend boyfriend husband whatever
old gen teachers that’s the wrong reason because you’re doing things from an
emotional high and when you have the emotional low it really hurts and you need to keep
yourself focused on why you’re doing this you’re doing it to make money to improve
your financial condition like i mentioned before i started this mentorship i believe that there are
hard times coming ahead and you don’t need to make 14 000 in two weeks you don’t need that
but if you make your car note for the month or if you make fifty percent of your
mortgage or rent payment every month with something like this and i’m not saying or promising you can but
think like that let it evolve from that when i was a young man
and i said this many times in my videos and i have some people in this mentorship that are watching that they
don’t like when i do these types of rants and things and i’ll say oh stick to the topic blah blah get to the point
this is the point okay because you’re gonna if you’re not trading with live money right now inconsistent you’re gonna have these things come up in your
own thinking and they’re gonna be barriers so what when that happens you’re gonna be wanting to email me okay or you’re going
to wrestle with it and not know how to deal with it but when i first started back when i was 20 years old i’m looking
at the market thinking if i can get to the point where i could save a thousand dollars a month
by the time i’m in my 40s i won’t need to work no obviously you i didn’t factor in
inflation all that stuff but a million dollars by 40 you know that was enough for me to get to work and focus on learning how to do this
contrast that with what you see on youtube today follow my signal service join my
mentorship i made sixty thousand dollars in one trade here’s the proof here’s the
withdrawal here’s this here’s that that is not something that is
sustainable and it’s such a wild unicorn that just pops up once in a
while you don’t see these people pulling out 60 000 consistently every single week that’s not happening okay
but i’m pulling out 6 000 a week consistently now that’s not a lot of money it’s not
but i’m quite confident in saying that i think that the majority of you and i’m talking the high 90 percent of you could
live pretty nice on six thousand dollars a week will the market continuously offer me
six thousand dollars i don’t know i haven’t trade the indices in a long time but i traded these
markets years ago okay and i know them so i’m not scared
of them i’m not scared of the volatility i love it but if you look at the relationship of
how these negative trades give me intel they give me insight
because i’m trying to get a read on the next swing on that daily chart these are all
small little investments on me getting a better read on that so you think
that your trading account is never going to have any of these in them when these are to a informed trader
someone that’s seasoned that knows what they’re doing they’ll invest in their own trading
think about what i’m telling you you’re investing in yourself to get more information that you can’t collect just
by watching the price action so you got to get a closer feel for it and you invest and you put something in the marketplace now
there are trades and i’ve mentioned this i’m not sure which video it was in the mentorship but i did one and they were
losing trades they were they were wrong ideas they were absolutely wrong ideas not all of a losing trade record
is errors and that’s how it’s important because if you just look at somebody’s
you know trading statements or well yeah their positions and their
statements that’s not going to give you the context that would be required like
i could look at someone’s statement and say okay yeah they’re making money
but in reality unless i look at what they’re doing on a chart they could be lucky they could be just
getting lucky and this today was me investing in trying to get a feel for
what i think is going to happen on the next few days worth of data and i’ll throw in
a couple trades where it doesn’t matter to me if i’m losing and sometimes when i do this
they’re winning trades but they’re not meant to be winning trades or losing trades it’s just me
getting a read on it now when you do a micro account okay it wouldn’t be this much money
and you may not trade with this style this i know so many of my students don’t do this because they just don’t think
it’s a worthwhile investment but those same traders that are under my toothless are not
capturing 100 plus handle moves in these indices either so it’s a trade-off okay
what is it you’re trying to do what are you trying to accomplish i’m not trying to get 10 handles you know on a lot of contracts in scalp scalp scalp okay
i know what i’m looking for in this this tab over here where it says
profit and losses i don’t care how much money i deposit in the account the broker will never put that money in that
tab so when you read people making comments on the internet and i have a few of them in the in the
previous video that i mentioned and showed today where i was showing my live account logging into it in the whole show
they said that i’m adding money and this is reflecting the editions and that disproves that these people have no idea
what a live account looks like they’ve never seen one in their life no broker ever would ever reflect deposits in the
profits and loss category that would never happen and this is absolutely profits and in organizations like the
cftc would literally come after me or anybody else if that wasn’t real money
i’d be breaking the law by saying it is real money that’s real profits right there okay
these trades here i cleaned up all of this
with that trade right there okay but i i want to give something that i think and believe
that is realistic my intentions are not to run this account up to a million dollars because i don’t think that you learning from
this youtube channel that that is realistic can some of you do it well
the sky is not the limit okay i’ve on record many times saying that
i have students that do very very well i have students that don’t make money at all now
you might be an exception i don’t know that you may believe it i don’t know okay but
the things i’m teaching on this youtube channel i have faith in that’s the only thing
i’m showing you here i’m not saying look what i can do so therefore you can do it too i cannot promise you
that you’re going to get the same results in fact i’m promising you that you won’t get the same results as me okay but i
try to trade this account with the expectation also that i don’t want it to be
consistently over and over again where it’s just too good to be believable because i want you to be able to see
these statements at the end of the year and look at them and refer to them and say you know what
there’s these times in the market in certain months and certain days where there was drawdown in this account and
it came out of that drawdown and look where it ended for the year or look where it ended for each month
that is tangible real world help when you feel like if
you have a losing streak or if you have losing trades and you look at someone that’s being able to use the logic that i’m teaching you and still correct it
now i can correct the drawdown intraday because i know how to trade very well i’m not bragging it’s just the facts
if i know what i’m looking for whatever drawdown i have and i can correct the intraday drawdown that i’ve
had on the chart if we look at how the market can give us these opportunities
and you can see that this trade here there’s that entry 14505 and a half right there
14 622 and three quarters right here
that was the cell that was the exit here’s the commission costs here’s the fees and here’s the commission that td
ameritrade takes out and here’s the return on that one trade 23 45 2 345
that cancels out all of the leaders i put in to get a feel for it and i pocketed eleven hundred dollars
for one day for a short amount of time i could have held it i could have done that
using what i’m teaching you here but i’m trying to teach by example so
that way you don’t look at me do unrealistic things that you can’t do right away
do i believe someone that has put a year into trading and studying what i’m doing with this mentorship
can trade like this i personally believe yes but does that mean that you are all
going to do it no if i didn’t believe you could do it i wouldn’t be up here doing it okay
the logic is being shown to you i showed you in the charts how i use the s p to time my nasdaq trade and here are the
actual history this is this is it okay i got asked today show this
okay here it is do the numbers here add them up and then add it to that profit and look at the
video i just posted today and somebody’s going to say oh this is a it’s a photoshopped
photoshop thing because it’s on your powerpoint i do powerpoint because i’m not having to worry about hiding my user
number because if i hide that then you can’t see all the other details in here i think it’s what turns off so i want to
keep everything so you can see it so it just allows me to not worry about it
but nonetheless i want you to think about how
daily bias is not an everyday bias that’s going to work in your favor some days i go in i’m
expecting like last name i prefer to see the market go a little bit lower and it didn’t deliver so i had to make
adjustments and then i caught myself on the right side of the daily range exiting where i teach you getting in
where i teach you right there there’s logic it’s just that’s the proof okay
um there will be days where i try to do this and i’m going to have a losing day
it will happen i will not be able to correct it it will be a losing negative day when that happens the first instance
that that happens i’m going to show you it okay i’m not trying to hide the losing days but
the trader in me the person that is ict
i refuse if i have the capability i refuse to let my negative day stay
negative at the close now you might look at that as oh well you’re you know
you can’t accept the losing trade and you’re trading emotionalism that’s nonsense this is someone that’s got three decades
of experience and i knew how to fix it so if you knew how to fix it wouldn’t you do it right so
again everybody’s gonna have an opinion and everybody’s gonna have a way of thinking how they need to be taught
but i’ve been doing this for a very long time and i’m not going to change my style so
the order of which i’m teaching it the topics i’m talking about the way i’m showing it to you in the
charts that’s how i’m trading i’m putting the trades on based on that logic so that way you can see i have
faith in this you may not have faith in this you may never take these trades you may never
ever put any effort into learning them you’re just watching this like it’s a netflix binge watching
scenario okay that’s cool but
this is something that is transferable i can do it it will repeat to answer your questions i’m getting a
lot of comments also and i’m going to close the video here the algorithms are not going to change
because ict is teaching you how to navigate with them
period why am i trading these markets when i’m supposed to be the 4x guru
well if you look at 4x 4x is going real quiet it’s sideways so i’m going to trade this market also as a compare and
contrast i’ve been doing this market a lot longer than forex
again i started with these markets here and bonds which when we get into
may and june i’ll probably trade some bonds in here as well give you some tips on how that market works a little
bit too but hopefully you got something from this i was a little all over the place but i
wanted to be relaxed and and communicate a lot of things that were coming to me
by way of the comments section i appreciate all of your comments i appreciate all of the feedback you guys
are giving me just so you know i know some of you are probably leaving these sweet sugar rush
comments and really really lavishing me with adoration i’m not trying to put those comments i
always accept one comment for each video as a way of you know saying i liked your comments you know i think that’s a
significant comment that i think the community would appreciate not just oh this is you know loving ict
i appreciate all of that but just know that those types of comments are never going to be allowed
to be shown um i how i’m holding all the comments for review because i still have some
terrible things being said to me that are not true and i’m not going to give a stage for that okay um
in closing if anybody out there says that they’re doing trades that are live and making 20 000 a day or whatever and
they’re not doing it in a simulator let them show you by logging into your live account and doing it like this i’d be
interested to see that also until next time be safe
Transcript
all right folks welcome back
this is episode
number eight
applying institutional order flow to
forex markets
all right folks welcome back
taking a look at trading view and i
promise this is going to be a really
short one tonight
um
let’s go to euro
and whenever i’m looking at data from
trading view this is the
data feed i use for
forex pairs only forex.com i don’t want
definitely not them
all right so we have the daily chart up
for euro yen
just so you know i hate the end pairs i
can’t stand them
but
but for the sake of completeness
this is how you would
look for these types of patterns in
forex
now i have lots of feedback in the
comments section that
you don’t get to see but it’s really
just for me i get a lot of requests
whether or not this is
appropriate to be using for higher time
frame charts and i think daily charts
are
what everyone classifies a higher higher
time frame chart so
i want you to take a look at shark fry
do any mock up on it
pause the video if you’re not ready
still don’t pause it to you
all right take a look at the
relative equal lows over you see that
it’s gonna go
quick and dirty tonight
right and dirty
all right so we have
relative equal lows
marked out over here the market has
traded down through
and created a run higher
now here is why i do not like the end
pairs okay i get questions all the time
why don’t you like again pairs icd they
move around nice they do this they do
that
they tend to have like a double
return to a specific level i like to see
and you’re going to see it right here
okay
swing high
the market rallies through that
there’s no
fair value out there
it drops back down in
then it runs again taking out this
swing high so we have two
points of market structure that have
moved to the upside in order its price
is traded above it
now this leg here
you want to go back through that
and see is there a fair value gap
well we have one
and two
market trades down into it here
sends it higher
what’s above here buy side liquidity
this old high back here could be a draw
on liquidity as well so there’s gonna be
buy stops whether it trades there or not
it’s irrelevant okay
it’s likely to draw to it
just like you know
playing horseshoes you play the game
horseshoes
not every single time you throw a
horseshoe is it going to go on that post
but it’s still fun to play right so
you’re aiming at that post whether you
hit that post or not and this would be
like the post in the game
playing horseshoes you’re just aiming
for it
now obviously we started trading a new
day here but this candle which was the
10th of february 2022
this daily candle
we could trust that this was likely to
go higher because we went up we’ve
consolidated
and then start another run into this
high here
again whether it trades through it or
not it’s irrelevant okay because even a
failure swing to get above old highs if
there’s enough range from being right
here at the open to reaching up to here
that’s enough to take a stab at it and
see if you’re going to get any kind of
yield
so that’s an example of it occurring on
a daily chart but i want to go into this
very day right there okay the 10th
so we’re going to drop down into a 15
minute time frame
all right here’s a 15 minute time frame
and
we’re going to mark up our chart
midnight new york time
rocket rallies in here
yeah
and then we go into the
new york session right here
so we’re going to go into this
price structure
and fair it out
the run that occurred in here
so i’m going to
put a rectangle in this area so that way
we know what we’re looking at relative
to this 15 minute time frame
you guys ask why i do powerpoint slides
this is the reason why
it makes it a lot easier to go right to
what i’m looking for
all right we’re gonna drop down to a
five minute chart
okay
and if you take a look at
seven o’clock in the morning
10 o’clock in the morning
that’s your new york
ict killzone okay that’s the time of day
that new york session trades form
i have more information in that regard
for
time of day
for forex in this
channel i said lots of videos lots of
topics and things you can explore i
don’t want to beat it to death because
i’ve already done in other places but
just know that seven o’clock in the
morning 10 o’clock in the morning new
york time again
on trading view you need to have it
toggled to that everything else
it’ll be wrong
all right so here is the time of day at
the forming of a new york setup
forms all right so we have the market
trading down
takes out a swing low trades down below
that
and then punches higher
right above this swing high
inside this price like right here is
there a fair value gap we’re going to
start breaking it down top down from
five minute
top down
we’re gonna break it down from the five
minute down to the one minute chart so
from this low
up to this high
right in there that’s we’re gonna
study on each new time frame so i’ll go
down to three minutes
okay so in this price leg here do we
take out a swing low yes we trade down
below swing low
does it take out a swing high
here
yes it does so now we have a valid
condition to see if there’s a trade
go back through this price leg
is there a fair value got
right in here
and this one here
so remember i was teaching you it could
stab down there just be mindful of that
but
try to get your entry in on that one
there
and that’s what we have here trace that
to it there
now the question is going to be is how
far
will it trade to because we’re not
looking at anything over here because a
middle of the range type idea so for
expansion type moves practical lesson
tonight where if we don’t have a range
to trade inside of
how do we anticipate how far can trade
up or trade down in this case we’re
looking for a long
where would our targets be because the
old high is over here
now i’m sure if we went to a hard time
frame keep looking to the left we’ll
find something
but a real easy way
is to take
your price
leg over here see this swing low break
prior to this run up then we
consolidated drop down create a discount
and then create our retracement rally
and start to run up into these highs
how can we know
well i like to take a fib
anchor it
let go of my
and anchor it to
a previous swing okay so from this low
that is high
after we leave this consolidation it
starts to trade higher
um standard deviation negative one
and i got a lot of questions you know
what’s my setup for my fib i actually
show that on the ote primer video so
you’re welcome to take a look at that on
the youtube channel as well
133.153
and
that’s not that
let’s see
hi is 133
15 and three so right to the right to
the point that you’d be looking for
and then
we’ve seen it received from that
okay
so
obviously when i show example like this
makes me want to trade me in
but i hate this pair i can’t stand
there’s other markets that
can scratch my itch for 4x but this one
is not one i like to trade
but
i wanted to come out tonight and kind of
give you
a quick view of what you could do with
these
markets using the model okay
there is a approach that you can use
with the london session okay and london
would be marking up your vertical lines
relative to new york local time two
o’clock in the morning to five a.m so
you’d have your your bracket so your
operating hours would be hunting the
setup
for new york between seven o’clock in
the morning and ten o’clock
local new york time
for london session trades
you would look for setups that would
provide you a way to trade a fair value
gap between two o’clock in the morning
and five o’clock in the morning okay and
that’s as easy as i can make it for you
it’s simple and any additional
information you would want to have i
have absolutely covered it in other
videos in this youtube channel okay so
it’s predominantly a forex channel and
it’s only been recently with the 2022
mentorship i’m talking and teaching
about the stock indices so
i got a lot of requests for 4x so here
you go it’s
simply applying what you’ve been trained
with the futures indices
but
just applying it to the forex market but
applying it to the time of day relative
to
new york
or london and yes you can take trades in
asia yes you can take trades in london
close
but i’d prefer to have you just trade on
these two time frames here or time of
day rather
being new york open which is what’s
being shown here seven o’clock tomorrow
ten o’clock in the morning new york
local time again always i can’t say it
enough because if you don’t do this
and you just have it set to your local
time
it won’t work
but it’s new york local time on trading
view
seven o’clock to ten o’clock this is the
time when you’re hunting the setup okay
so
in summary
we can anticipate this market going
higher why because the euro dollar is
going higher
you can also
check it by going to let’s go to daily
chart
first
and you can go to
6e which is euro futures
and let us use the front month
continuous
okay you can see how euro
where has it been going
so has it been going lower or higher
clearly going higher
what has
the yen been doing
so when you look at forex pairs you want
to look for that relationship between
the
instruments that make up your pair
so euro yen euro is strong yen is weak
so what would that mean for euro yen it
would mean that
if your bias is bullish
and you have this
underpinning
between euro and yen
it’s going to make this pair go higher
it’s a real simple way of looking at how
to determine
these exotic crosses okay and how to
frame the logic behind whether it should
go higher or lower
and then apply time today wait for the
pattern i’m teaching you
and you won’t need to do anything else
you don’t need to buy a subscription to
anybody’s services you don’t need to
learn anything else you don’t have to
buy any courses it’s all right here for
free and
it works
until i talk to you next week enjoy
weekend and be safe